NFL Week 16 Games to Avoid

All the teams we tell you to stay away from keep winning, so we’re not going to mess up a good thing. Continue to ignore the advice in this column, as home teams have been abysmal against the NFL betting odds this year, covering less than 44 percent of the time. Three of the four teams we told you to stay away from in Week 15 easily covered, and the fourth team only failed to cover due to a miracle backdoor.

GAMES TO AVOID IN WEEK 16

HOUSTON TEXANS -3 AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The Texans are a popular pick only laying three points on the road against the Buccaneers this week. Houston can clinch the AFC South for the fourth time in five years with a win on Saturday afternoon, but Tampa Bay has won four in a row heading into this game.

Jameis Winston is having one of the most remarkable seasons in the history of the NFL, leading the league in passing yards and interceptions. Even with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined, he still threw for over 450 yards last week, and Breshad Perriman has emerged as a solid option at receiver.

Houston is not as good as its 9-5 record indicates, and the Texans have only won two games by more than a touchdown this season. This team laid an egg just two weeks ago at home against Denver, so it’s hard to trust Houston considering its issues in the secondary.

MIAMI DOLPHINS PK VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS

We haven’t seen the public back Miami much in 2019, but over 70 percent of the bets are on the Dolphins at home against the 1-13 Cincinnati Bengals. Ryan Fitzpatrick has made Miami feisty over the second half of the season. The Dolphins are 7-3 ATS per the NFL betting odds in their last 10 games, and they have secured two outright wins as a double-digit underdog during that stretch.

Brian Flores has this team playing well, but the running game has been abysmal and Fitzpatrick is the favorite to lead the Dolphins in rushing at the end of the year. Cincinnati has shown plenty of life despite its abysmal record, and the Bengals should have more than one victory. That’s why this line is a toss-up instead of Miami being favored by a field goal or less.

Cincinnati can lock up the No. 1 seed with a loss, but the players are never as concerned with that as the media believes. The Bengals want to win, and this is their best chance to get another victory before the end of the year.

DENVER BRONCOS -7 VS. DETROIT LIONS

Drew Lock might be the real deal. Denver’s young quarterback was impressive before last week’s road loss to Kansas City, and the Broncos are crossing their fingers that they finally have their man. However, Lock’s numbers aren’t as good as you might think given the buzz surrounding the Missouri product. Lock has thrown an interception in each of his three starts, and he averaged 5.2 YPA or less in two of those three outings.

It’s been a bad year for Detroit. The Lions have lost seven straight games, and their 2-0-1 start is a distant memory. Matthew Stafford has been placed on injured reserve, and David Blough has not played well after a promising performance on Thanksgiving. Blough has thrown one touchdown and four interceptions in his last two games, and he will be going against a stingy Denver defense in Mile High Stadium on Sunday.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -6 AT CHICAGO BEARS

Once again, the Chiefs are the most popular play on the board. Almost 75 percent of the action is on Kansas City this Sunday night, and even more money is likely to come in on the Chiefs since this is a primetime game. That could move the Chiefs up to -7 on the NFL betting line prior to kickoff.

Once again, the Chiefs are the most popular play on the board. Almost 75 percent of the action is on Kansas City this Sunday night, and even more money is likely to come in on the Chiefs since this is a primetime game. That could move the Chiefs up to -7 on the NFL betting line prior to kickoff.

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