NFL Week 16 Home Underdogs

It’s been an abysmal season for home teams in the NFL. Only six teams have a winning ATS record at home this year, and no team is better than 4-2 ATS at home. Home teams are 92-122-6 ATS this season, but the oddsmakers have yet to adjust their spreads, providing significant value in underdogs. That might change this week though as more people are becoming aware of how well road teams are doing this year after road favorites had another winning week in Week 15.

NFL WEEK 16 BETTING ODDS

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +3 VS. HOUSTON TEXANS

The Buccaneers are on a four-game winning streak, but the Texans can lock up the AFC South title this week. The NFL betting odds have already moved in favor of Houston, rising from Texans -2 to Texans -3 since this line initially opened, as everyone is on the Houston bandwagon again after an impressive road win against Tennessee last week.

Jameis Winston is dangerous to bet on or against though. Winston is a Swiss Army knife that cuts friend and foe alike with his play, leading the league in both passing yards and interceptions. The Buccaneers are never out of it because of Winston, so getting points with Tampa Bay can be a good pick.

TENNESSEE TITANS +3 VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Before their loss to Houston, Tennessee had won four straight games. Ryan Tannehill has rejuvenated Tennessee’s offense, and A.J. Brown could give the Titans the No. 1 receiver they have been desperate to land for the last decade.

New Orleans might be the best team in the NFC, but the Saints might be in for a letdown. They are playing on the road off a short week, and the Saints are feeling great after Drew Brees broke two records on Monday Night Football. They are banged up on both lines, and not having Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins is huge against Derrick Henry and a Tennessee offensive line that can maul you in the trenches.

NEW YORK JETS +3 VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

The Steelers are the second most popular pick this week. Currently, three-fourths of all bets in this game have been on Pittsburgh +3, as this is a must win situation for the Steelers following their disappointing home loss to Buffalo last week.

However, the Steelers are a bit overrated. While the defense is excellent, it’s clear that neither Devlin Hodges nor Mason Rudolph is a quality quarterback, and the offense is missing a lot of firepower. Sam Darnold has looked sharp over the last two months, and he could lead the Jets to an upset win.

CLEVELAND BROWNS +10 VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore will want to avenge its earlier loss to Cleveland and lock up home field advantage throughout the postseason before a potentially decisive Week 17 showdown with a desperate Pittsburgh team. The Browns have been the most disappointing team of 2019, and they are the biggest home underdog of the week by a significant margin.

There is plenty of in-fighting in Cleveland. Odell Beckham Jr. is lashing out at everyone, Jarvis Landry and other Browns’ players reportedly asked Arizona to acquire them in the offseason, and everyone seems to be upset with Freddie Kitchens. It’s tough to back the Browns in this spot even though they are talented given all the drama surrounding this team.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +2.5 VS. DALLAS COWBOYS

The NFC East will likely be decided here. Both Dallas and Philadelphia are 7-7, and the Cowboys would clinch the division with a road win over the Eagles thanks to a win in the Metroplex earlier this year.

Dallas is a road favorite even though this game is in Philadelphia because the Cowboys have been much better than their record indicates. The Cowboys’ point differential is 84 points above the Eagles, and they have far more talent to boot. Philadelphia has one of the most inexperienced receiving corps in the NFL as injuries have wrecked this unit’s depth, and the defense is struggling again.

CHICAGO BEARS +5 VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Kansas City is the most popular play this week. Over 80 percent of bets so far have been on the Chiefs -5 on the road against the Bears, as Chicago has been eliminated from postseason contention following its loss to Green Bay.

The Bears still have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but the offense has been underwhelming throughout the season. Kansas City is still gunning for a first round bye thanks to its tiebreaker with New England, and the weather is expected to hold up on Sunday.

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