Oakland Raiders Super Bowl Odds

There is plenty of drama surrounding the Oakland Raiders this season. In addition to being the team being featured on HBO’s “Hard Knocks”, the Raiders have been dealing with Antonio Brown’s helmet dilemma, and they are also in the process of moving to Las Vegas. Most people are bearish on the Raiders’ chances if you look at the Super Bowl betting odds, but the Raiders are looking to prove the naysayers wrong.

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Oakland Raiders +5000

At the start of the offseason, the Raiders were considered the longshot to win the Super Bowl in the AFC West. However, there has been enough optimism that they have surpassed Denver in terms of Super Bowl betting odds, as the Broncos are currently listed at odds of 66-1 to win it all. Both teams face an uphill battle when it comes to usurping the Chargers and Chiefs for the top spot in the division though.

Offensive Outlook

The addition of Antonio Brown should help this offense provided Brown keeps the drama off the field and continues to be the most prolific receiver this decade. Brown has caught at least 100 passes in each of his last six seasons, and the four-time First Team All-Pro might have the biggest year of his career in 2019. Jon Gruden has said that he wants to use Brown as much as possible in the passing game, and some have speculated that he could reach 200 targets.

Brown is clearly the most talented receiving option for the Raiders. Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow are currently penciled in as the other starters at receiver, and there are no great options at tight end. If the Raiders offense is going to improve after finishing as the fifth-worst scoring offense in the league in 2018, Brown will be the catalyst.

This figures to be a make or break season for Derek Carr. Carr threw for over 4,000 yards last year, but a lot of his stats came in garbage time. ESPN’s QBR rated Carr as the 27th best quarterback in the league last season. The oddsmakers aren’t too high on Carr figuring it out though, as his odds to win NFL MVP are the same as Joe Flacco and Marcus Mariota.

A solid run game would certainly help Carr and this offense, so Gruden eschewed the conventional wisdom by taking a running back in the first round. Josh Jacobs may have been worth the pick though, as there has been a lot of buzz surrounding him over the summer. At the very least, he should be better than Doug Martin.

Defensive Outlook

The good news for the defense is that it has nowhere to go but up. The Raiders’ defense was ranked 30th in the league per DVOA last season, and they were dead last in points allowed. Wholesale improvement is needed here to make the team a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
The Raiders have made efforts to improve the defense in the offseason. Clelin Ferrell was certainly drafted higher than he should have been, but he is a talented defensive end, and Arden Key should improve in his second seasons in the league. The key up front will be Johnathan Hankins. Hankins is a solid nose tackle that was one of the few Raiders that played well last year.

Vontaze Burfict is the prototypical Raider in every way, so it made a ton of sense when he was brought in from Cincinnati this offseason. He is an incredibly talented linebacker, but he comes with major baggage. Provided he stays on the field, he should help improve this unit though.

In a division with Patrick Mahomes and Philip Rivers, your secondary needs to be solid if you are going to compete for the playoffs. The Raiders went to great pains to improve that area this offseason by signing Lamarcus Joyner as a free agent and drafting Johnathan Abram and Trayvon Mullen in the first two rounds of the draft. Those additions should really help, especially as they develop chemistry later in the year.

Season Projection

It appears that some bettors have fallen victim to the “Hard Knocks” hype. While the Raiders’ Super Bowl betting odds have fallen recently, this team is still projected to be one of the worst in the league if you look at their season win total odds. Only three teams are projected to win fewer games than the Raiders, and that doesn’t jive with their odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy this year.

Stay away from betting on Oakland to win the Super Bowl unless you are getting odds of 100-1 or more. The Brown signing has already gone sideways, and the defense probably won’t improve a ton. There is better value in at least one of the other longshots.

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