Patriots vs. Jets Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for TNF Week 3

The New England Patriots have exceeded expectations so far this season, and their strong running game could help them keep things close against the New York Jets in Week 3.

Thursday Night Football will see the Jets hosting the Patriots, and Aaron Rodgers will be tested, playing on a short week with his aging body and lingering Achilles issues. Meanwhile, New England has shown resilience in its first two outings, and my early predictions suggest that fight will continue.

Game Overview

• Matchup: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
• Date: Thursday Night Football, Week 3
• Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
• Spread: Patriots +6.5 (-115 at BetOnline)
• Over/Under: 38.5 (-110 at BetOnline)

Early Picks and Predictions

Early Spread Lean: Patriots +6.5

Analysis

The look-ahead line for this matchup was Jets -7.5 over the summer. However, after the first two weeks, the Patriots have outperformed expectations, while the Jets are still finding their rhythm. The Week 2 opening spread adjusted to Jets -6.5, influenced by key absences on the New York defense. The Jets could be missing several starters, including LB C.J. Mosley, DL Jermaine Johnson, and CB D.J. Reed, along with Haason Reddick on a short week.

New York’s defense, its strongest unit, has underperformed, ranking 22nd in EPA allowed per play through the first two games and showing vulnerability against the run. The Jets have surrendered a combined 310 rushing yards to San Francisco and Tennessee, exposing a softness in the trenches.

The Patriots excel in the run game, with totals of 185 and 170 rushing yards in their first two games against Seattle and Cincinnati. They rank 8th in EPA per handoff and have adopted a slow, methodical offensive approach under new coordinator Alex Van Pelt, who is calling runs at the fifth-highest rate in the league. This strategy has allowed New England to control the clock, averaging nearly 34 minutes in time of possession, which ranks fourth in the NFL.

This ball-control offense will limit Aaron Rodgers’ opportunities. The Jets, who have faced two strong defenses in the 49ers and Titans, rank 23rd in DVOA entering Thursday. Given New York’s struggles to stop the run, a 6.5-point spread seems a bit high, especially if their defense continues to allow 4.7 yards per carry. While I’m not rushing to bet on the Patriots at +6.5, I’d consider backing them if the spread reaches +7 or higher.

Early Over/Under Lean: Under 38.5

Analysis

The Week 3 total is lower than anticipated in the summer, where the look-ahead number was 42 points. The Over/Under opened at 39.5 for Week 2 and has since dropped to 38.5.

Both defenses are dealing with injury concerns. The Jets might be missing up to three starters, and New England’s defense is depleted in the middle after losing LBs Ja’Whaun Bentley and Oshane Ximines during Week 2’s loss to Seattle.

Offensively, the Patriots rely on a “ground-and-pound” approach, and the Jets have struggled to stop the run, which could lead to short gains that keep the clock running. In the passing game, Jacoby Brissett has struggled to push the ball downfield, completing only one pass of 20+ yards and averaging just 5.9 intended air yards per attempt through two games.

The Jets’ passing attack is efficient but not particularly threatening to opposing secondaries. Rodgers was conservative in the win over Tennessee, averaging less than six yards per attempt and ranking eighth-lowest in intended air yards (6.3) through his first two starts.

New England’s secondary was exposed by Seattle’s deep passing game, with two Seahawks wide receivers topping 100 yards each. The Seahawks’ use of pre-snap motion to manipulate the Patriots’ coverage could be something the Jets mimic, but New York’s air game isn’t as potent as Seattle’s. To protect Rodgers, the Jets are likely to continue using shorter, quicker passes, which reduces the likelihood of big plays.

Some sharp sportsbooks have already moved the total down to 38, and others may follow. If you favor the Under, lock in at 38.5 before the line drops further.

Early Picks:

• Spread: Patriots +6.5 (-115) — Consider waiting for a spread of +7 or higher for better value.
• Over/Under: Under 38.5 (-110) — Lock in early if you like the Under, as the line may continue to drop.

Given the Patriots’ effective running game and both teams’ struggles in the passing game, a low-scoring contest seems likely. New England’s ability to control the clock with its ground attack will be key to keeping this game tight.