Pay No Attention to NFL Draft Grades

By Adam Greene

Hey, I’ll admit I’m guilty. I’ve doled out a draft grade or two in my day as an NFL writer and every single time I can assure you, I was talking right out of my ass.

You see, we don’t know anything. And when I say “we,” I mean everybody. Coaches, general managers and TV, radio, podcasters and writers are all looking through a glass darkly. When it comes to judging which college football players will be able to make the leap and become professional football players, we’re all just guessing. And we guess wrong a lot.

Last season, without question, A.J. Brown out of Ole Miss was the best rookie wide receiver taken in the NFL Draft. He also happened to be the fourth WR selected and was No. 1 on no draft prognosticator’s board that I can find. It was pretty much unanimous that Brown’s Rebels teammate, D.K. Metcalf, was the top wideout and Brown was ranked anywhere from second to fifth or worse. 

But then the real games happened and Brown, picked in the second round by the Tennessee Titans, put all that draft ranking nonsense to rest. He finished with 52 catches for 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns. No other rookie broke 1,000 yards, but Metcalf did get the closest, catching 58 passes for 900 yards and seven touchdowns. He wasn’t a bum at all and if anything, it’s insane that Ole Miss wasn’t better than they were with both these guys on the same field.

Here’s the thing. If you’ve been paying attention, while the writers had Metcalf as their top wideout, the actual guys making the picks did not. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown out of Oklahoma was the first WR picked, going to the Baltimore Ravens.

N’Keal Harry from Arizona State was the second to go, landing with the New England Patriots who, for once, did not trade out of the first round.

Deebo Samuel from South Carolina as the third picked, landing with the San Francisco 49ers in the second round. Then the Titans picked Brown. Three other guys (Mecole Hardman, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Parris Campbell) all were slotted to teams before Metcalf.

None of them, not a one, were as good as A.J. Brown and Metcalf, though I’m sure Hardman is probably feeling OK as he polishes his Super Bowl ring earned with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Some of these guys like Hollywood Brown, Hardman and Samuel had solid rookie seasons, showing a lot of promise. Others, like Harry, Campbell and Arcega-Whiteside did next to nothing.

The point is, all draft grades are just playing pretend. We base it on how well a guy did in college and how we think he’ll do in the pros. But it’s a crapshoot. Six quarterbacks were taken ahead of Tom Brady in the 2000 NFL Draft. Guys like Spergon Wynn, Tee Martin, Chris Redmond and Giovanni Carmazzi. That was no accident. The teams selecting (including the Patriots) thought those guys were better. Otherwise somebody would have turned in Brady’s card before the sixth round and he wouldn’t have been crying about it like a psychopath with a fist full of Super Bowl rings and a supermodel wife years later.

So, after all that, whose draft did I like? I think the Philadelphia Eagles were smart. I was high on Jalen Hurts, if you’ll recall, and warned the world that some NFL coaches and general managers were seeing the same things I did. Doug Pederson and Howie Roseman were those guys.

Whose draft did I not like? The Jacksonville Jaguars, who did nothing exciting and I don’t see how any of these guys can seriously impact their team in the win-loss column. They better be blowing up Cam Newton’s phone right now.

Who looks scary? Every NFC West team looks like they had terrific drafts across the board. For a conference that has represented the NFC five of the last eight Super Bowls, they all seemed to add significant star players to already loaded rosters.

But, again, that’s all just me talking right of my ass. We’ll find out when the season starts, if there is one.

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