PREDICTING THE NFL’S MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

BY ADAM GREENE

If there’s one thing you can guarantee about the NFL’s annual Most Valuable Player award is that it’s going to a quarterback. Since 2010, it’s been handed to a player other than a QB just one time as running back Adrian Peterson took it home in 2012.

Even before the 2010s, it mostly went to signal callers. For a running back to earn it, even historically, he has to have an incredible season and, at the same time, no quarterback in the league can have a particularly great statistical season.

Still, it’s happened. Just three times this century, but who’s counting? Well, us. We are as we try to zero in on the guy worth laying some cash on.

Here’s your contenders according to the odds:

Patrick Mahomes +400

Josh Allen +900

Matthew Stafford +1000

Aaron Rodgers +1400

Lamar Jackson +1400

Tom Brady +1400

Dak Prescott +1600

Russell Wilson +1800

Kyler Murray +1800

Justin Herbert +1800

Baker Mayfield +1800

Ryan Tannehill +2800

Joe Burrow +3300

Cam Newton +3300

Matt Ryan +4000

Deshaun Watson +5000

Derrick Henry +5000

Christian McCaffrey +5000

Sam Darnold +5000

Jalen Hurts +5000

Jameis Winston +5000

Tua Tagovailoa +5000

Ryan Fitzpatrick +5000

Taysom Hill +5000

Ben Roethlisberger +6600

Trevor Lawrence +6600

Derek Carr +6600

Justin Fields +6600

Kirk Cousins +6600

Trey Lance +6600

Daniel Jones +8000

Mac Jones +8000

Jimmy Garoppolo +8000

Zach Wilson +8000

Jared Goff +8000

Alvin Kamara +8000

Dalvin Cook +10000

Stefon Diggs +15000

DeAndre Hopkins +15000

Tyreek Hill +15000

Travis Kelce +15000

Andy Dalton +15000

Drew Lock +15000

Teddy Bridgewater +15000

Devante Adams +15000

First off, we can talk about running backs not being a significant factor all we want, but a wide receiver has never won the Associated Press MVP award. In fact, you have to go back to the 1941 and 1942 seasons when they gave out the old Joe F. Carr Trophy (considered the MVP of its day) for a receiver to take it. It was Pro Football Hall of Famer Don Hutson who won it both times. As for a tight end like Travise Kelce (+1500)? Forget it.

Do any of these running backs stand a chance? Honestly, no. The game has evolved to the point where the elite QBs just put up numbers that are impossible to ignore. If one of them gets hurt or has an off year, they all won’t. Some guy, be it Aaron Rodgers (+1400), Patrick Mahomes (+400), Tom Brady (+1400) or Russell Wilson (+1800) will get it done.

The favorite is Mahomes (+400) and it should be. No human has ever had the first four years that Mahomes has put up. He won the MVP in 2018 and is in the running every year since he took over as a starter. I feel like you can all but count on Mahomes throwing for 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns this season if he plays 16 games. So the guy that jumps him in the MVP race will have to beat that.

What would Josh Allen (+900) have to do to leapfrog him? Get his team to the best record in the AFC and home field while ending with similar stats. That would do it.

Your biggest threats to Mahomes taking his second MVP trophy are in the NFC; Matthew Stafford (+1000) and last year’s winner Aaron Rodgers. The sportswriters are dying to give it to Stafford, so long locked in Detroit on a loser franchise with even bigger losers as head coaches. If he has the season most are predicting, and gets the Los Angeles Rams to NFC home field, he’ll win it. Just for the story it writes.

Rodgers is having his Last Dance moment with the Green Bay Packers. He’s pissed and, for the first time in years, will field a full NFL caliber group of wide receivers outside of Devante Adams after forcing a trade for Randall Cobb.

To keep our eyes in the NFC, like Stafford, the writers are itching to find an excuse to give Russell Wilson (+1800) an MVP. Unfortunately, it seems that Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll has closed up the kitchen where Russ cooks with a major health violation. He probably won’t put up the numbers required, even though he could.

Tom Brady could put up those numbers with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and certainly did last season, throwing for the second highest touchdown total (40) and third highest yardage total (4,633) of his career.

Lamar Jackson (+1400) is just a waste of money from where I sit. Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman is so awful and the fact that the team has kept him employed is squandering a potential generational talent. Dak Prescott (+1600) is in much the same situation in Dallas as the Cowboys have seen fit to keep Mike McCarthy employed for another season.

My best dark horse for you is Ryan Tannehill (+2800) of the Tennessee Titans. He’s got the best wide receiver corps in the league and a running back in Derrick Henry (+5000) that can take over a game by himself. He will face honest defenses all season and if he can get Tennessee to 14 wins and throw the minimum stats (again, it’s a lot, 4,500 yards and 40 TDs), he could stake a claim.

My pick? It’s still Mahomes’ to lose from where I sit. After that, I like Stafford, then Rodgers, then Brady then Allen. To me, Tannehill is honestly the only other guy on the list that could sneak into the conversation.

Not unless there’s a Kurt Warner in here, someone that can come out of nowhere to be the best QB in the league. But none of the +5000 or +6600 guys have the kind of skill position players Warner had with the Rams back in 1999. The future Hall of Famer played with multiple other future Hall of Famers including Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce and Orlando Pace. His other starting wideout, Tory Holt, will probably land in Canton next year. Sam Darnold (+5000) has Christian McCaffery (+5000), but there is no Bruce or Holt on that roster with the Carolina Panthers.

The NFL season begins on Thursday, Sep. 9 and the Week 1 Schedule is already up and taking bets at BetOnline.AG.

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