RANKING EVERY 2022 NFL STARTING QUARTERBACK

BY ADAM GREENE

Let the arguments commence. Here, laid out before you, is the comprehensive pre 2022-23 NFL season ranking of all 32 presumptive NFL starting quarterbacks.

While I might use only the tape and past performances to evaluate NFL Draft picks, I have leaned into my imagination. My job does require predilection, so I’m flexing those muscles here too, not only factoring in what each man has done in the recent past (all that matters, really), but what I think he can be safely expected to do in the upcoming season.

I have written it many times, and it’s true every time, that while there are 32 franchises in the NFL, there are not 32 NFL franchise quarterbacks on the planet. Saying that a man is the worst starting QB in the league is still acknowledging that he remains the 32^nd best quarterback currently walking the Earth.

It’s the toughest position sports and I don’t think it can be taught. I do think coaching matters and a guy can learn and improve, but I don’t believe an NFL QB can be made. I think they are born.

So here they are. The 32 NFL starting quarterbacks ranked in order;

1. PATRICK MAHOMES, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

2021: 66.3 completion percentage, 4,839 yards, 37 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 381 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns

2021 Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5, AFC West Champions, lost AFC Championship

Mahomes remains the gold standard for quarterbacks. Two Super Bowl appearances and one victory in his first four seasons as a starter doesn’t hurt the ranking. What sets him apart from everyone but a handful of other guys (all in the Top Five unsurprisingly) is the unique physical gifts he gets the most out of, his arm angles, preternatural accuracy and big play ability. He plays huge in the huge moments and no fourth quarter lead is safe when he’s on the other side of the field.

Here’s an interesting fact about Mahomes. He’s never once played an away playoff game. Every postseason game, with the exception of his two Super Bowls, have been played in Kansas City. Would that make a difference and maybe put a stop to his four consecutive AFC Championship Games streak? Who knows? If you want him to play on the road, show up to the AFC Championship with a better record and force it.

2. MATTHEW STAFFORD, LOS ANGELES RAMS

2021: 67.2 completion percentage, 4,889 yards, 41 touchdowns, 17 interceptions

2021 Los Angeles Rams: 12-5, NFC West Champions, NFC Champions, Super Bowl LVI Champions

Here’s where the controversy begins. All the Matthew Stafford supporters before last season said the same things — he was being held back by a bad Detroit Lions franchise, poor players around him and even worse coaching. If you put Stafford on a good team with a good coach, you’ll see how great he is.

All Stafford did in 2021 is prove those people right. Only Tom Brady (42) has more fourth quarter comebacks in his career than Stafford (34) while having 10 full seasons on the LA QB. Stafford picked up his 34^th in the Super Bowl, unleashing one of the greatest passes in the game’s history, a no-look toss to Cooper Kupp. He and Matt Ryan (42) are the only active player behind Brady (53) in game-winning fourth quarter drives, something that Stafford did in three consecutive games in the postseason including a 30-27 last second victory over Brady in the NFC Divisional Round.

3. JOSH ALLEN, BUFFALO BILLS

2021: 63.3 completion percentage, 4,407 yards, 36 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 736 yards rushing, six rushing touchdowns

2021 Buffalo Bills: 11-6, AFC East Champions, lost to Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round

The Bills’ offseason moves aren’t the only reason they open not only as the 2022-23 AFC favorite, but the Super Bowl LVII favorite. What has people pumped about the Bills’ chances this upcoming season is the emergence of Josh Allen as one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks. He’ll be atop many rankings like this you’ll see this offseason, but as I stated in the preamble, I’m not just basing this on what a guy might do. I’m mostly factoring in with what he has done.

And Allen’s done plenty. He made a monstrous jump in year three for the Bills, something we rarely see in the modern NFL and then proved it was no fluke by matching it last season. He’s a team leader, a community leader, a face of the NFL and the main reason guys like Von Miller want to play in Buffalo.

4. TOM BRADY, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

2021: 67.5 completion percentage, 5,315 yards, 43 touchdowns, six interceptions, two rushing touchdowns

2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 13-4, NFC South Champions, lost to the Rams in the NFC Divisional Round

In his 22^nd year in the NFL, and almost his last, Brady had the second best season of his career. He led the NFL in completions, attempts, yardage and touchdowns. What he didn’t do was make it to his 11^th Super Bowl.

Brady’s un-retirement puts him right back here. The Greatest of all Time remains, even at 44, one of the best QBs in the NFL and a guy who’s accomplishments will likely never be matched. Can he keep it up? Everyone has predicted he’d finally go over the QB cliff for the last half decade and all he does is specifically not do that. This does look like his final season, as he’s signed a massive contract with Fox Sports to hit the broadcast booth once he does retire for good.

5. AARON RODGERS, GREEN BAY PACKERS

2021: 68.9 completion percentage, 4,115 yards, 37 touchdowns, seven interceptions, three rushing touchdowns

2021 Green Bay Packers: 13-4, NFC North Champions, lost to the 49ers in the Divisional Round

Is this too low for the reigning NFL Most Valuable Player? Well, let me make the argument that regular season Aaron Rodgers would be higher, but the problem is that postseason Aaron Rodgers wouldn’t even make the Top 10.

Yes, our nation’s top Ivermectin spokesperson has a real issue with the playoffs. A huge playoff victory might as well be a proven safe COVID-19 vaccine — Rodgers will have nothing to do with it. No quarterback of his generation has watched more quarterbacks make a game winning drive on his own field than Rodgers. Rodgers is truly the Tom Brady of losing home playoff games.

Rodgers had a magnificent season a year ago and deserved the MVP. He also led his team to all of one touchdown drive against the 49ers at Lambeau Field in the NFC Divisional Round. This is who he is, whether Mike McCarthy or Matt LaFleur is his head coach and there’s no way to argue otherwise.

6. JOE BURROW, CINCINNATI BENGALS

2021: 70.4 completion percentage, 4,611 yards, 34 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, two rushing touchdowns

2021 Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7, AFC North Champions, AFC Champions, Lost Super Bowl LVI to the Rams

Burrow led the league in completion percentage and his first full year as an NFL starter, proving that not only he belonged in the club, but needed to be considered amongst the big dogs.

Burrow placed his team on his back all throughout the playoffs, winning each game in the fourth quarter and against a superior Rams team in the Super Bowl, had a lead heading into the final minutes and even had the ball with a chance to win or tie with a little over a minute to go.

Burrow got plenty of comparisons to Brady heading up to the big game. He’ll be able to prove they were all deserved by keeping Cincinnati in contention this upcoming season.

7. JUSTIN HERBERT, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

2021: 65.6 completion percentage, 5,014 yards, 38 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 302 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns

2021 Los Angeles Chargers: 9-8, did not make the playoffs

Just like everyone else, I love what I’ve seen out of Herbert in his first two seasons. But is this too high? It doesn’t feel like it, but when you consider what he’s accomplished for his team, there’s an argument against it.

Certainly stats and personal accolades account for something and Herbert has amassed plenty of those. It’s the promise we all see, not just in him but in the team around him, that helps him land at seven more than his accomplishments on the field. I’m as guilty of seeing Herbert’s gifts through the power of my imagination as anyone. I would feel a lot better about it if he’d gotten his team to the playoffs last year.

8. RUSSELL WILSON, DENVER BRONCOS

2021: 64.8 completion percentage, 3,113 yards, 25 touchdowns, six interceptions, 183 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns

2021 Seattle Seahawks: 7-10, did not make the playoffs

I thought about putting Wilson above Herbert, but couldn’t justify it in my own head. I think DangeRuss is a great quarterback. No. 8 overall is not a shabby ranking out of 32. The problem he has is much the same as Aaron Rodgers. Since 2015, he’s 3-5 in the playoffs in spite of arguably improving as a regular season quarterback every season. Those three victories have come against the 2015 Minnesota Vikings, the 2016 Detroit Lions and the 2019 Philadelphia Eagles. The five losses are to the 2015 Carolina Panthers, the 2016 Atlanta Falcons, the 2018 Dallas Cowboys, the 2019 Green Bay Packers and the 2020 Los Angeles Rams. When it was time to rise and shine against legit postseason opponents, Wilson hit the snooze button.

Now, that could all be because Pete Carroll never really “let Russ cook.” Because when he did hit the stove in the regular season, it would look fantastic sometimes. And others, not so much. It might not have been Russ’ fault. As our No. 2 QB can attest, you need a team around you and it doesn’t matter if you’re a Michelin Star chef if you’re working the line at Taco Bell. We’ll find out exactly who Wilson is, and what he can really do, with the Broncos and an offense built around him this season.

9. DAK PRESCOTT, DALLAS COWBOYS

2021: 68.8 completion percentage, 4,449 yards, 37 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 146 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown

2021 Dallas Cowboys: 12-5, NFC East Champions, lost to the 49ers in the NFC Wild Card Round

There was a time, back in the long ago bygone days of 2016 where I was the only NFL writer on the planet who not only thought Prescott was a potential NFL starter, but the best QB in the 2016 draft class by a mile. I had him ranked over Jared Goff and Carson Wentz both and it wasn’t close. So here I am now, six years later, doing the same thing again.

Prescott is already one of the best QBs in the league, but he’s got one thing holding him back and it’s got nothing to do with him and only Jerry Jones can fix it. Mike McCarthy is entering his third wasted season as the Cowboys’ head coach and it’s been nothing short of a disaster. Jones shouldn’t have hired McCarthy in the first place, but after another faltering season where the Cowboys lose in the opening round of the playoffs (or worse), they’ll bring in Sean Payton and that’ll pretty much fix everything and unlock what Prescott can really do.

10. DESHAUN WATSON, CLEVELAND BROWNS

2021: Did not play

2021 Houston Texans: 4-13, did not make the playoffs

In 2020, Watson was unquestionably one of the Top Five quarterbacks in the NFL, but like Stafford, he was suffering on a garbage franchise with a terrible head coach. Last offseason he had enough of that and demanded a trade. The Texans were against that… until they weren’t.

Watson’s off the field issues might keep him off the field for some or part of this season, but for the first time in a while he’ll have the team and a what looks like a head coach to get the most out of his talents. Though he’ll have to find a way to do it with the worst knotted up muscles of all time. In 2020 he completed 70.2 percent of his passes for a league leading 4,823 yards, 33 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. He rushed for 444 yards and three scores. The year before that he had the Texans, with Bill O’Brien as its head coach, a quarter away from an AFC Championship game. This is why the Browns gave up so much to get him, regardless of the fallout, and why they weren’t the only team in the bidding.

11. DEREK CARR, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

2021: 68.4 completion percentage, 4,804 yards, 23 touchdowns, 14 interceptions

2021 Las Vegas Raiders: 10-7, lost to the Bengals in the AFC Wild Card Round

No franchise quarterback in the NFL is more maligned than Carr. He’s improved every year he’s been in the NFL in spite of playing for one of the craziest and worst run organizations in the league. When he was drafted, the Raiders head coach was Dennis Allen for all of four games, which is shocking in only that another NFL team, the New Orleans Saints, has decided to hire him as a head coach again. Tony Sparano finished out the season and then Carr had to deal with the coaching stylings of NFL retread Jack Del Rio for the next three seasons. A man who’s head coaching resume contains exactly four winning campaigns out of 12 seasons and one of those was thanks to Carr.

Once Del Rio was tossed out the airlock, they replaced him with professional psychopath Jon Gruden and we know how that turned out. All the while Las Vegas has run the weirdest drafts in history to put players around him and Carr is still standing, while so many of his former teammates are in prison or probably headed that way. This upcoming season, with Josh McDaniels finally in charge and a team full of guys not out on bail, we’ll get to see what Carr can really do.

12. MATT RYAN, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

2021: 67 completion percentage, 3,968 yards, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, one rushing touchdown

2021 Atlanta Falcons: 7-10, did not make the playoffs

One of the most underrated moves of this offseason is the addition of Ryan to a loaded Colts team. This is a former NFL MVP and Super Bowl starting quarterback. You could argue he’s never really bounced back from that 28-3 meltdown against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI and last year doesn’t measure up with his best, but two seasons ago the man led the NFL in attempts and completions as he’s dragged around an Atlanta Falcons team that gets worse roster-wise by the second.

If Ryan is just as good as he was last season, Indianapolis is a playoff team. If he’s as good as he was two years ago, they could be playing deep into the postseason.

13. LAMAR JACKSON, BALTIMORE RAVENS

2021: 64.4 completion percentage, 2,882 yards, 16 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 767 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns

2021 Baltimore Ravens: 8-9, did not make the playoffs

Lamar Jackson is here above the franchise quarterback line of demarcation despite everything the Ravens have done to try to destroy him. The worst of which is the continued employment of offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Jackson has flourished  even with Roman’s Pop Warner play design and inept playcalling simply because he’s that good. He’s a next level, generational talent saddled with a man calling a middle school offense and trying each and every Sunday to get him mauled to death.

If you need a reason as to why Jackson is in no hurry to sign a long term contract with the Ravens, look no further than that. Every other NFL team designs an offense to keep their QB from taking hits. Roman runs Jackson right into the teeth of the defense, linebackers and safeties and, here’s a shocker, for the last two seasons he’s ended the year on the sidelines injured. At least two years ago it happened in the playoffs.

Imagine with me Jackson playing in the Kyle Shanahan system, for one of the coaches in the San Francisco coaching tree. A guy that can design a run heavy offense that utilizes wide receivers and the passing game. A passing offense where Jackson’s athleticism is a bonus and not the sole focus. It’s a nice dream and one I’m sure Jackson has every time he sinks into an ice bath postgame.

14. KYLER MURRAY, ARIZONA CARDINALS

2021: 69.2 completion percentage, 3,787 yards, 24 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 423 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns

2021 Arizona Cardinals: 11-6, lost to the Rams in the NFC Wild Card Round

(Note — If Jimmy Garoppolo starts somewhere, this is where he would land. Murray and everyone else moves down a spot.)

We have officially crossed the franchise quarterback line of demarcation. And, yes, that means I’m saying that Murray has not yet proven he’s a franchise QB. Murray has a couple of Pro Bowls and two decent seasons, but has yet to win a playoff game and been the architect of two of the greatest December swoons in recent NFL history.

He also has a knack for getting hurt, which could be problematic. Two seasons ago with a playoff spot on the line against the Los Angeles Rams, Murray couldn’t finish their Week 17 game and the team watched the playoffs at home. Last year, he missed three games and his back up, Colt McCoy, went 2-1 in those. McCoy is just as responsible as Murray for that Wild Card record a season ago. That’s not a guy you want to pay $40 million a year and keep hogtied to your franchise. Murray could cross the franchise QB line, but the Cardinals should make him prove it on the field and not pay an extra cent until he does.

15. RYAN TANNEHILL, TENNESSEE TITANS

2021: 67.2 completion percentage, 3,734 yards, 21 touchdowns, four interceptions, 270 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns

2021 Tennessee Titans: 12-5, lost to the Bengals in the AFC Divisional Round

Tannehill didn’t so much fall to earth last season, but definitely took one of those skipping stumbles you make when you’re in public and nearly trip. After putting up Mahomes type numbers in his first two campaigns with the Titans, last year he was right back to Miami Tannehill and no one really wanted that.

Tennessee did him no favors this offseason, trading away one of the best young receivers in the league in AJ Brown. He does have Robert Woods, fresh from the Rams, helping train up the new set of wideouts including rookie Treylon Burks.

16. KIRK COUSINS, MINNESOTA VIKINGS

2021: 66.3 completion percentage, 4,221 yards, 33 touchdowns, seven interceptions, one rushing touchdown

2021 Minnesota Vikings: 8-9, did not make playoffs

Kirk Cousins is the Cleveland Browns of NFL starting caliber quarterbacks so it’s pretty shocking he’s never once suited up for them in his career. He’s unquestionably a good quarterback, better than most by a mile. I have him as the 16^th best on Planet Earth on this very list and I’m still going to use the next paragraph or so to crap all over him. Such is the plight of Kirk Cousins.

Cousins is too good to bench, but not good enough for a team to not want to replace him all the time for someone better. The problem is, to get someone better you, have to get rid of Kirk Cousins because with Kirk Cousins you win too many games to get a shot at the top quarterbacks. It’s a constant problem that a guy like Cousins brings, as did Tony Romo and Jay Cutler before him.

17. MITCHELL TRUBISKY, PITTSBURGH STEELERS

2021: 75 completion percentage, 43 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, one rushing touchdown

2021 Buffalo Bills: 11-6, AFC East Champions, lost to Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round

As I wrote before, the men on this list are currently the 32 (or 34 if you count Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield) best quarterbacks on the planet and, unless there’s some kind of old school Star Trek the Original Series level of parallel development out there in the cosmos where there’s another Earth just like ours that’s created a sport for grown men to crash into each other wearing body armor at full speed, the entire universe as well.

So this is another line of demarcation, this time it’s between legitimate NFL starting quarterbacks and guys we either don’t know enough about, or don’t have much trust in because we know too much about them. Trubisky is the perfect amalgamation of both thoughts.

Because, on one hand, the guy has a winning record as a starter, 29-21, and took the Chicago Bears to the playoffs in two out of his four seasons. His only losing season record came as a rookie. But, he did nothing in those playoff appearances and at times looked very pedestrian running the team. Is that him? Or was it Matt Nagy, the terrible head coach he was saddled with in Chicago?

We’re going to find out, and I think Trubisky is not only going to keep Kenny Pickett on the bench, he’s going to shock the league and jump up a tier to actual NFL starter.

18. MARCUS MARIOTA, ATLANTA FALCONS

2021: 50 completion percentage, four yards, 87 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown

2021 Las Vegas Raiders: 10-7, lost to the Bengals in the AFC Wild Card Round

All the arguments made for Trubisky can be used for Mariota, who was cursed with legitimately maybe the worst head coach in the modern NFL, Mike Mularkey, for his first three seasons. The difference is, even with Mularkey dragging the Titans to the depths, Mariota won a playoff game, the first for Tennessee since the 2003-04 season. He came two points away in that playoff run of making the AFC Championship with, I say again, Mike Mularkey as his head coach.

As a starter, he posted a losing record just twice in five campaigns, his rookie season and the year that Mike Vrabel benched him for Tannehill. Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Arthur Smith must have liked him OK since he’s brought him in to run the Falcons attack this season. Like Trubisky, I think the former Heisman Trophy Winner will jump into the starter’s grid in 2022.

19. JAMEIS WINSTON, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

2021: 59 completion percentage, 1,170 yards, 14 touchdowns, three interceptions, 166 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown

2021 New Orleans Saints: 9-8, did not make playoffs

While I’ve been generous with Trubisky and Mariota, I’m not giving Winston the same benefits of the doubt. He’s still pretty high and can ease into the next tier. All he has to do is perform as well as he did for the Saints last year, without Sean Payton calling the plays, for a full season in 2022-23.

Winston cut his interception rate down significantly, but his yardage totals were way down as well. He was almost being too careful, if that makes sense. In Winston’s last season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he threw for 5,109 yards. If he’d played a full season last year and started every game, he was on pace to throw for a career low 2,841 yards and that’s including his 2018 season where he missed seven games due to injury.

It also doesn’t help that another quarterback came into the Bucs the year after they dumped him with the same roster and won the Super Bowl after he finished 7-9 and became the first QB to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. If Winston could be as dangerous as he was in his freewheeling days and just cut his picks down by half, not only would he be in the starting QB queue, he might slide up close to franchise QB territory. I guarantee you this, the Saints would be ecstatic to get a Winston who completes 62 percent of his passes for 4,000 yards, 30 touchdowns and 15 picks this season.

20. JARED GOFF, DETROIT LIONS

2021: 67.2 completion percentage, 3,245 yards, 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions

2021 Detroit Lions: 3-1, did not make playoffs

Goff is another guy that’s been much derided in spite of a solid career. People will actually make the argument, on television and in podcasts, that Baker Mayfield is better than Goff when there is absolutely no evidence of that anywhere on film in this universe. Yes, it looks like Goff has topped out as he had pretty much the same statistical season in 2021 with the Lions as he did in 2020 with the Rams.

But Goff had an elite QB season in 2018, completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 4,688 yards, 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The Rams made the Super Bowl because of Goff’s play, specifically in the NFC Championship. He was fantastic. It’s true that he played poorly in the Super Bowl he got them to, but if he’d kept up that pace, played at that 2018 level in the next two seasons, Matthew Stafford wouldn’t be in a Rams uniform today.

Mayfield has never done anything close to what Goff did in 2018 and he’s had the team around him and coaches to get it done.

21. JALEN HURTS, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

2021: 61.3 completion percentage, 3,144 yards, 16 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 784 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns

2021 Philadelphia Eagles: 9-8, lost to the Buccaneers in the NFC Wild Card Round

Here’s the first of our three former University of Alabama starting quarterbacks over the next four entries. Why is Hurts ranked the highest? Because I think he’s achieved the most with the least out of the three. I would argue that, last season, the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots both had better rosters than the Eagles. While they all finished with similar records, Hurts was more of a factor than the game manager that Mac Jones was for the Pats and made far more big plays than Tua Tagovailoa with the Dolphins.

Hurts has no excuses this season. The Eagles have put an offense around him any QB would love to play with after the addition of AJ Brown. Not only could he move up to the legitimate NFL starters tier, he could sneak a little higher with a solid 2022-23 run.

22. TREVOR LAWRENCE, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

2021: 59.6 completion percentage, 3,641 yards, 12 touchdowns,17 interceptions, 334 rushing yards, two rushing yards

2021 Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-14, did not make the playoffs

The Jaguars have, apparently against all their better judgement, hired the right guy in Doug Pederson to save Trevor Lawrence before this “generational” talent is destroyed. If I’m making this list next season, I don’t think Lawrence will be this low. Still, there’s only so much I’m willing to do this offseason with my imagination. Pederson had Carson Wentz in the MVP conversation in 2017, if not leading it, in his second season in Philly.

Lawrence showed plenty of flashes last season and with a real supporting cast and competent coaching staff, could show exactly why he was taken No. 1 overall in 2021.

23. MAC JONES, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

2021: 67.6 completion percentage, 3,801 yards, 22 touchdowns, 13 interceptions

2021 New England Patriots: 10-7, lost to the Bills in the Wild Card Round

Mac Jones not only had a solid rookie season. He had a better season than plenty of guys that have been starting in the NFL for years. So why so low? Even lower than Lawrence?

Because I think Jones is headed for a fall this season. He came into the perfect situation a year ago with Josh McDaniels calling the plays and the remnants of the Brady system there. He has the benefit of neither this season and it’s already causing a panic. The fact that Joe Judge and Matt Patricia seem to be running the offensive show doesn’t make me feel like that’ll change.

I think Jones, with more on his shoulders and far less help from the sidelines, struggles this season and the Patriots don’t make the playoffs.

24. TUA TAGOVAILOA, MIAMI DOLPHINS

2021: 67.8 completion percentage, 2,653 yards, 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 128 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns

2021 Miami Dolphins: 9-8, did not make the playoffs

Do I think Tua finishes the season ranked under Mac Jones on this list? Nope. Do I have any justification to place him over Mac Jones on this list today? Also nope.

I do think the Dolphins were right not to cut bait. I think Tagovailoa was drafted at his spot for a reason, because his talent showed that’s where he deserved to go based on his performance in college. Like Doug Pederson with Lawrence, Mike McDaniel and his Shanahan offense might be just the thing to get Tua out of the NFL’s doghouse and into the legit starting quarterback conversation.

25. CARSON WENTZ, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

2021: 62.4 completion percentage, 3,563 yards, 27 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 215 yards, one rushing touchdown

2021 Indianapolis Colts: 9-8, did not make the playoffs

It’s been the precipitous drop for the former No. 2 overall pick. Wentz has shown elite playmaking abilities at times. At others, he’s done moves so dumb that they not only cost his team victories, but made sure they’d be watching the postseason on their Barcaloungers.

Starting for his third team in the last three seasons, this isn’t Wentz’s last shot in the NFL. But it’s definitely his last chance to take the field as the presumed starter.

26. DANIEL JONES, NEW YORK GIANTS

2021: 64.3 completion percentage, 2,428 yards, 10 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 298 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns

2021 New York Giants: 4-13, did not make the playoffs

(Note — If Baker Mayfield starts somewhere, this is where he would land. Jones and everyone else moves down a spot.)

Like Tagovailoa and Wentz, this season will tell the tale on Jones as an NFL starting quarterback. He’s easily in his best situation, with the first competent head coach of his young career. The upgrade from Joe Judge to Brian Daboll can’t be overstated. Jones has the physical tools to play in the league and, like the other guys in this part of the list, shown flashes of it at times. But this is probably it for him in New York and as a starter if he can’t make a leap this season.

27. JUSTIN FIELDS, CHICAGO BEARS

2021: 58.9 completion percentage, 1,870 yards, seven touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 420 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns

2021 Chicago Bears: 6-11, did not make the playoffs

What Justin Fields showed last season all but doomed Matt Nagy as an NFL head coach forever. It caused us not only to evaluate what we were seeing from Fields under that stink, but reevaluate everything we thought about Mitchell Trubisky.

Fields now has a real head coach in Matt Eberflus and a serious offensive coordinator in Luke Getsy. He’ll run some kind of hybrid McVay-LaFleur system and all that’s done is produce a Super Bowl Championship and two straight MVPs. I expect Fields to be significantly higher on this list next season.

28. DREW LOCK, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

2021: 60.4 completion percentage, 787 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, two rushing touchdowns

2021 Denver Broncos: 7-10, did not make playoffs

Lock, at worst, is a career NFL back up and still one of the best QBs on the planet as I’ve previously stated. What he’s obviously not is a guy who can elevate a team and a franchise. He had his shot with the Denver Broncos, on a team built to win now on offense and defense, and never accomplished much.

I don’t expect it to be different in Seattle, especially with Pete Carroll calling 40 run plays a game.

29. DAVIS MILLS, HOUSTON TEXANS

2021: 66.8 completion percentage, 2,664 yards, 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions

2021 Houston Texans: 4-13, did not make the playoffs

As a third round pick in 2021, Mills outperformed three of the four QBs taken in the first round. He was more accurate than all of them but Jones and played with the worst roster in the league by a mile.

Unfortunately, this will be another year where Mills, unless he’s some franchise savior freakish passer, is impossible to seriously evaluate. The Texans are so bad at every level and didn’t do much this offseason, even with tons of draft capital, to change it.

30. TREY LANCE, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

2021: 57.7 completion percentage, 603 yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions, one rushing touchdown

2021 San Francisco 49ers: 10-7, lost NFC Championship to Rams

Lance never got many chances in 2021-22 as Jimmy Garoppolo showed the 49ers and the league that trading up for the North Dakota State QB was probably a huge miscue. He did win one of his two starts, but I never saw anything that impressed me.

All you’ve seen this offseason is how San Francisco is “worried” or should be about Lance. Thinking that Lance will step right in and get this team back into playoff contention, even with a loaded roster, is a mistake.

31. SAM DARNOLD, CAROLINA PANTHERS

2021: 59.9 completion percentage, 2,527 yards, nine touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 222 rushing yards, five touchdowns

2021 Carolina Panthers: 5-12, did not make the playoffs

Sam Darnold stepped into the perfect situation last season with a team and head coach that wanted him and he blew it. After a 3-0 start to the year, he led the Panthers to just one more victory the rest of the season. Darnold is battling for his NFL life this year and while his career won’t be over if he falters again, it’ll involve holding a surface tablet and not throwing a football on Sundays.

32. ZACH WILSON, NEW YORK JETS

2021: 55.6 completion percentage, 2,334 yards, nine touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 185 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns

2021 New York Jets: 4-13, did not make the playoffs

How bad is it for the Jets that the last two quarterbacks they’ve taken in the first round are the two worst players on this list? While Darnold is probably doomed, Wilson hopefully isn’t.

Josh Allen got Wilson drafted because scouts always want to find that next guy. It’s the same reason Patrick Mahomes got Jordan Love drafted and Lamar Jackson did the same with Trey Lance. Are you seeing a pattern here?

Allen, Mahomes and Jackson are unique finds. You can’t just pick out the next one. They are all one of one with entirely different skillsets. Wilson is in a Shanahan style offense and that shouldn’t require elite QB play, but even with that he was sub par and that’s because he rarely, if ever, faced a future NFL opponent with BYU. For his sake, the 2021 season better count as a redshirt year.

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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