Saturday NFC Wild Card Action Pits Dallas Cowboys Against Seattle Seahawks

It’s no secret that for sports books with a North American clientele nothing comes close to the National Football League in terms of betting action. For that reason ‘public perception’ of the teams, players, matchups, situations, etc. has much more significance in terms of the NFL pointspread. In most of the country, it’s unlikely the guy who works at the gas station or the auto parts store will have much of an opinion on NHL hockey or even NBA basketball. Discussion on college football and basketball will likely be limited to local teams or a few ‘marquee schools’. And forget about anyone having an opinionated ‘take’ on CFL football, snooker or e-sports. Meanwhile everyone in our hypothetical gas station/auto parts store will think that they’re an expert on the NFL or at least offer some opinions. The good news for your local bookmaker is that these ‘opinions’ are either a) wrong or b) outdated. It’s also good news for sharp NFL players who make a profit year after year by going against the public.

For the purposes of this handicap we’re not so much worried about the wrong opinions as we are the outdated ones. More so than any other sport, NFL football teams have a more difficult time shaking their ‘public image’ about their qualitative abilities. Much of this is the fault of the yammering imbeciles on ESPN or sports radio that have a ‘take’ on everything yet for the life of them don’t understand the subtle nuances that separate teams in a league that prides itself on ‘parity’. In this bifurcated world a team is either ‘good’ or ‘bad’. Since the NFL is hugely popular among ‘squares’ and this group of uneducated bettors get their information from the aforementioned sources the same binary assessment of teams disseminates into the psyche of the betting public. Here’s where the fun starts—the public is very slow to change their opinion of certain teams. For example, the ‘man on the street’ will continue to think that the Pittsburgh Steelers are a ‘playoff contender’ for several years after their run with the current roster is over (assuming it’s not already). If you asked a lot of random folks to name the better team between the Chicago Bears and the Packers I’d be willing to wager that the majority would pick the team watching the playoffs on television.

This brings us to Saturday’s NFC wildcard game between the Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks. The public perception is that Dallas is the ‘better team’ by virtue of their NFC East title. The reality is that they were in the division lead all year due to the Philadelphia Eagles’ sputtering 4-6 start to the season. The Eagles experienced a typical Super Bowl ‘hangover’, lost their starting quarterback and still almost ran down ‘America’s Team’. The public views Seattle as a team that ‘limped in’ to the playoffs but that’s merely a comparison to NFC West winning Los Angeles which started the season 8-0.

To win in the playoffs, a NFL team needs to have a potent running game. The Cowboys have the ‘marquee name’ running back in rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott. The Seahawks have a rushing game ‘by committee’ with Chris Carson, Mike Davis, Rashaad Penny and Russell Wilson. They’re also the #1 rushing team in the NFL and the first since the 2001 Pittsburgh Steelers with a 1,000 yard rusher (Wilson) and three others with 300+ yards. A NFL playoff team needs to take care of the football and not turn it over. If they get a lot of turnovers so much the better. Seattle had a +15 turnover ratio (best in the NFL) and turned the ball over only 11 times—the second lowest turnover total in history for a 16 game season. Dallas was +3 turning the ball over 17 times.

Finally, a NFL team benefits from a steady head coach that has considerable experience in big games. Advantage Pete Carroll who had 2 National Championships, 4 Rose Bowls, 2 Orange Bowls and 7 Pac-10 Championships before he ever set foot on the Seattle Seahawks sideline. You can throw in a Super Bowl and two NFC Championships since then. Jason Garrett? Try 1 playoff victory in seven previous seasons as Dallas head coach. We’ll take Seattle’s superior rushing game, the heady play of Russell Wilson and the experience of Pete Carroll plus a couple of points over anything Dallas can do.

BET SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +2 OVER DALLAS COWBOYS
BET SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +112 OVER DALLAS COWBOYS