Super Bowl LV Props – Best Kansas City Chiefs Props

The defending Super Bowl champions are going to be at a disadvantage on Sunday. The Kansas City Chiefs will have to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their home stadium. Fortunately, the Chiefs have already defeated the Buccaneers in Raymond James Stadium earlier this year. That has led to Kansas City being a 3- to 3.5-point favorite per the betting odds as they look to repeat.

Kansas City Chiefs Players with a Rushing Attempt

Over 4.5 -150

Under 4.5 +120

There is good value in the over with this prop as Kansas City could have seven or eight people carry the ball at least once.

Let’s start with the basics. Darrel Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire will both have at least one rushing attempt. Williams has been Kansas City’s primary running back during the postseason, and Edwards-Helaire recently returned from injury. Patrick Mahomes will carry the ball a handful of times too, as he has run at least twice in each of his seven previous playoff games.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IElafAOoYkM

Now, we get into the conjecture. Andy Reid loves to have his speedy receivers keep defenses honest with reverses and other run plays. There’s a chance for a big play whenever Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman get the ball in space, and we have seen Hill record three carries and Hardman record two carries in the playoffs. It’s probably a lock that either Hill or Hardman will carry the ball once, and both players could easily record a carry in order to push this over the total.

Le’Veon Bell or Darwin Thompson might run the ball as the third-choice running back, and Anthony Sherman does occasionally get a carry as the team’s lightly used fullback.

Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns

Over 2.5 -167

Under 2.5 +127

Everyone wants to bet overs with Mahomes. He is the most exciting player in the game today, but the numbers in place for the Super Bowl are significantly above his season averages. Mahomes threw 38 touchdowns in the regular season (about 2.5 per game), but the over is significantly juiced.

The Super Bowl LIV MVP threw two touchdowns or less in nine of his 15 regular season games. He has thrown four touchdown passes in the playoffs this year, and he only threw two touchdowns in last year’s Super Bowl. That makes the under the right side given the juicy odds. In fact, most of Mahomes’ unders are probably the right side given the attention given to him.

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards

Over 21.5 -130

Under 21.5 +100

This is the one Mahomes’ over that is probably the right side. While he has run for under 22 yards in four of his seven postseason games, there are a few things that point to the over.

Mahomes ran the ball at least seven times for at least 29 yards in each of his three playoff games in last year’s Super Bowl run. He has proven to be more willing to run the higher the stakes, and he was on pace to go over his total before being knocked out of the Cleveland game in the Divisional Round. That made Reid and the Chiefs more cautious using him as a runner against Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game.

Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the NFL, so the Chiefs might have Mahomes run the ball more in order to loosen up this defense. It’s very possible that Buccaneers’ defensive coordinator Todd Bowles focuses on the pass defense too as Mahomes threw for a season-high 462 yards against this defense in Week 12.

Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards

Over 29.5 -114

Under 29.5 -114

Full disclosure, Hardman is a player that I have been high on since his time at Georgia. He seems primed to take over the Tyreek Hill role if the Chiefs decide he is too expensive to keep eventually, and he is the third most productive receiver on Kansas City outside of Hill and Travis Kelce.

Hill and Kelce will likely see a ton of attention from Tampa’s defense, leaving Hardman available to tear up the Buccaneers underneath. He has only had 30 receiving yards or more in eight of Kansas City’s 18 games, but he was targeted five times in Week 12 and could have a nice evening on Super Bowl Sunday.

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