TAKING STOCK: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

BY ADAM GREENE

Barring something ridiculous happening, the Indianapolis Colts will start their fourth different quarterback for the fourth consecutive season come 2021 opening day. Carson Wentz joins the team via trade after a disastrous year with the Philadelphia Eagles that saw Wentz benched and traded and his head coach, Doug Pederson, fired.

In the Taking Stock series, we’re looking at each playoff team, going from worst to first, and outlining exactly what they must do to avoid being one of the five or so franchises who miss the postseason the year after making it.

INDIANAPOLIS COATS

2020-21 Record: 11-5 (Wild Card Team)

Playoffs: Lost 27-24 to the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card Round

Odds to win the AFC: +1200

Previously: Washington Football Team and Chicago Bears

THE QUARTERBACK

With the retirement of Philip Rivers, the Colts were once again left with a gaping hole at their QB position. Backup and sometime starter Jacoby Brissett is a free agent and will be reluctant to re-sign with the team as he hopes, vainly, to land somewhere with a chance to start.

Instead of testing out Jameis Winston and Cam Newton or kicking the tires on a trade for Marcus Mariota, the Colts went all in on head coach Frank Reich’s old quarterback, Carson Wentz in exchange for a 2021 third round draft pick and a conditional second round pick in 2022. The second rounder turns into a first if Wentz plays 75 percent of Indy’s offensive snaps or 70 percent and they make the playoffs.

It’s not a bad deal for either team and certainly a realistic final outcome after the Eagles reportedly opened bidding at two first round picks. An opening that I assume was met with the sound of chirping crickets if not outright guffaws.

In 12 games starting for Philly last year, Wentz went 3-8-1, completed a career low 57.4 percent of his passes for 2,620 yards, 16 touchdowns and a career high 15 interceptions. It was a bad season by any measure and got Wentz benched in favor of 2020 second round pick Jalen Hurts.

But, here’s the thing. Just a few seasons ago Wentz was in the NFL MVP conversation and threw for 33 touchdowns in just 13 games before going down with an injury. That year the Eagles won the Super Bowl, thanks in large part to his 11-2 record as a starter securing them a spot in the postseason. The Eagles offensive coordinator that season just so happened to be current Colts head coach Frank Reich.

A year later he dealt with injury issues again, starting just 11 games and going 5-6 in the process. For the second straight season, Wentz had to watch as Nick Foles pushed his team to the playoffs.

2019 was another playoff season and, maybe more than his MVP caliber campaign showed what Wentz is really capable of doing. He put Philadelphia on his back, finished 9-7 and completed 63.9 percent of his passes for 4,039 yards, 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions. That’s the guy that the Colts hope they scooped up in this trade. But if he was still that guy in 2020, the Eagles wouldn’t have traded him at all. So there’s your conundrum.

Can QBs bounce back after the kind of year Wentz had? I’ve seen it, but it’s usually because they were dealing with an injury in the “bad” year, like a shoulder or a hand. I can honestly tell you I’ve never seen a healthy guy come back after the kind of year Wentz had. The NFL is littered with them, former franchise QBs that saw the wheels come off and never back on again.

From Matt Leinart to Vince Young to Sam Bradford to Josh Freeman to Robert Griffin III all the way back to Mark Rypien and Wade Wilson. When these young guys take the dip, it has to be rare for them to pull out of it.

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In Reich’s offense, Philip Rivers completed 69 percent of his passes for 4,169 yards, 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Two years before, Andrew Luck (in his final season), completed 67.3 percent for 4,593 yards, 39 touchdowns and 15 picks. Each of those seasons resulted in double digit wins and playoff appearances for Indianapolis.

We’ll see what Reich can do for Wentz. I really hope he can bounce back. I’m a firm believer that the NFL gives up on QBs too fast and there’s a chance that many of those guys listed above could have rebounded in the right situation that just never materialized.

FREE AGENCY

The Colts are lucky in that they just have three free agents they really need back, but one of those guys could cost some real cash. Defensive end Denico Autry had one of the best years of his life, recording 33 tackles, 7.5 sacks, nine tackles for a loss and 10 QB hits. He won’t be cheap to keep.

Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is likely looking at his final NFL contract, but still recorded a 77.7 grade from PFF last season where he caught 56 passes for 762 yards and five TDs to lead the team. If they want to keep the explosion in their offense, Hilton should be a high priority to keep and since he will be 32 next season, he should be a cheaper option than some of the younger WRs on the market.

Lastly, Brissett is not a starting QB, but his best shot at getting onto the field is to remain with a team that likes him with what could be a shaky starter situation. So it could be in his best interest to remain a Colt at a significantly lower salary. Mainly because no one is paying him $15 million to play QB again in his life.

THE DRAFT

The Colts pick at No. 21 and with their QB set, need to look at upgrading their offensive line more than anything. The only way Indy shouldn’t take an OL here is if some elite WR fell into their lap, which could happen with so many quarterbacks slated to go in the first round. This is prime trade down territory too with teams below them like the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints who probably really need to think about grabbing their late first round QB.

If they keep the pick, they could end up with Wyatt Davis out of Ohio State, Trey Smith from Tennessee or Jalen Mayfield from Michigan to add to that O-Line. All the top WRs should likely be gone at that point and I’d certainly take either of those linemen before I’d pick Rondale Moore from Purdue or Rashod Bateman for Minnesota at receiver.

AFC SOUTH

Indy was right with the Tennessee Titans the whole way in the AFC South last season. They have the team to do it again if Reich can get a 2018 out of Wentz. Below them, the Houston Texans are in shambles and the Jacksonville Jaguars are in a complete rebuild. Again.

Projected 2021-22 record: 10-6, AFC Wild Card

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