Three Playoff Teams Under .500 Against The Spread

With the regular season over and only 12 teams remaining, our final ATS Power Rankings of the year will feature only the playoff teams. We’ll also include where they would have ranked if all 32 teams were still alive to help inform your playoff gambling decisions.

12. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (7-9)
OVERALL: 22

To Philadelphia’s credit, they closed the season with three straight covers. However, it should be noted that each one was within their division, which was the worst in football. A cover this weekend would be their first against a non-division opponent since Week 9.

11. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (7-8-1)
OVERALL: 20

While the Eagles are on a hot streak, the Seahawks are going the opposite way. In their final four games of the season, they had one win and no covers. What they do have going for them is a surprising amount of success on the road. They’re 5-2-1 ATS outside of Seattle.

10. HOUSTON TEXANS (7-8-1)
OVERALL: 19

Houston took Week 17 off, so the poor outcome doesn’t really matter. What does matter is they’re 1-5 ATS as home favorites, which is what they are this week. The one cover came in Week 5 against the Falcons, who were arguably the worst team in the league at the time.

9. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-7-1)
OVERALL: 15

The Patriots were once the safest bet in the league, but those days are long gone. They have one cover in their last six games and just lost to the Dolphins as 17.5-point favorites. But we’ve reached the postseason, where the Patriots typically dominate. They’ve covered in six of their last seven home playoff games.

8. TENNESSEE TITANS (8-7-1)
OVERALL: 14

The Titans may have only covered one of their last three, and that one was against Houston’s backups, but they can’t be underestimated. Ryan Tannehill completely turned their offense around and Derrick Henry locked up the rushing title. The Patriots are a tall order, but the Titans keep surprising everyone.

7. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (9-7)
OVERALL: 9

The Vikings won by 29 as one-point favorites to give them some momentum before their big Monday night showdown with Green Bay. The Vikings don’t control their own destiny in the NFC North, but they’ll need to win this weekend to have a chance. They’ve covered three of their last 10 as underdogs in Green Bay.

6. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (9-6-1)
OVERALL: 8

The 49ers earned the top seed in the NFC by the slimmest of margins. The same could be said for their cover. Had Jacob Hollister scored, the Niners would have finished the season with three straight ATS losses. Instead, they’re at home awaiting their first challenger of the postseason.

5. GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-6)
OVERALL: 7

The Packers didn’t come close to covering in Week 17, but the three-point win over Detroit earned them a first-round bye. The bad news: they’re 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 home playoff games.

4. BUFFALO BILLS (9-5-2)
OVERALL: 5

The Bills were atop these rankings several times throughout the season, but they were knocked from their perch after ending the season with a push and an ATS loss. Granted, the loss came without most of their starters. They’ll travel to Houston this week, which is just fine considering they’re 6-0-2 ATS on the road.

3. BALTIMORE RAVENS (10-6)
OVERALL: 4

There’s no hotter team than the Ravens, who have covered in nine of their last 10 games. After resting starters in Week 17 and a first-round bye, they’ll be very well rested for whichever team makes the trip to Baltimore.

2. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-5-1) 
OVERALL: 2

The Chiefs are the next hottest team after Baltimore, ending the season on a 5-0-1 ATS run that culminated in a first-round bye. Unfortunately, Arrowhead Stadium hasn’t done them any favors in the postseason. The Chiefs have played 10 home playoff games since 1991 and covered just once.

1. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (11-5)
OVERALL: 1

The Saints cleaned up ATS wins when they were constantly underestimated while Drew Brees was injured. No one’s underestimating them now, but they’ve still covered three in a row. They’re 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home playoff games but 3-2 ATS when favored by eight or more this season.

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