Week 7 NFL Biggest Spread Moves

A smart bettor knows to monitor line movements as the week goes along. Often when the bet is made is nearly as important as who the bet is on. Here are Week 7’s biggest spread moves and the likely reasons for said moves.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (+4.5) @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
OPENING: OAKLAND RAIDERS (+7) @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Recency bias is the likely reason for so much money coming in on the Raiders. The last time we saw Oakland, they upset the Bears in London. The last time we saw Green Bay, they barely beat Detroit. 

The Packers also have a ton of injuries at receiver. Davante Adams is already ruled out, Geronimo Allison is doubtful and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be a game-time decision. That means Allen Lazard and Jake Kumerow are set to be Aaron Rodgers’ top options. It does make the Raiders a bit more enticing.

HOUSTON TEXANS (PK) @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
OPENING: HOUSTON TEXANS (+2.5) @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

After two big wins, the Texans are AFC contenders with an MVP candidate at quarterback. How quickly things can change. We’re not too far removed from the Texans being a joke after a home loss to Kyle Allen’s Panthers.

Fair or unfair, the Texans are a great team in the eyes of the public. It’s likely that many Houston bettors think the Texans will win straight-up and jumped at the chance to get a couple of points. 

MIAMI DOLPHINS (+17) @ BUFFALO BILLS
OPENING: MIAMI DOLPHINS (+15.5) @ BUFFALO BILLS

No one wants to bet on the Dolphins and everyone wants to bet against them. That’s how you get a 17-point favorite that failed to score more than 17 points in three of five games.

We can’t blame the Buffalo bettors, though. Miami is terrible and the Bills have exceeded expectations all year. The Bills also used the bye week to get healthy, as Mitch Morse and Devin Singletary don’t have an injury designation. The only reason to take Miami is the enormous spread, but that hasn’t helped them yet.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-4) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
OPENING: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

A.J. Green isn’t returning and the Bengals are missing their top two corners. The money coming in on Jacksonville makes sense.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3) @ ATLANTA FALCONS
OPENING: LOS ANGELES RAMS (-4) @ ATLANTA FALCONS

The Rams are struggling but aren’t nearly as bad as Atlanta. That’s what makes money coming in the Falcons so puzzling. We would have thought the public would go after the Rams after the Jalen Ramsey trade. Perhaps the Falcons are getting by on name recognition since they’ve typically been a solid team under Dan Quinn.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+2) @ TENNESSEE TITANS
OPENING: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+1) @ TENNESSEE TITANS

The Chargers were roundly dominated in each of the last two weeks. There are also those who believe Ryan Tannehill will be an upgrade over Marcus Mariota. That’s no great shock, especially considering the Chargers’ latest terrible performance was on national TV.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+4) @ CHICAGO BEARS
OPENING: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+3) @ CHICAGO BEARS

Alvin Kamara was ruled out for this week, so the Saints’ matchup against Chicago just got much tougher. There could be more money on the Bears before Sunday.

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