WHAT WE LEARNED: NFL WEEK 9

BY ADAM GREENE

It’s been a wild week. Here’s what we’re talking about.

JOSH MCDANIELS WAS HISTORICALLY AWFUL

Stop me if you’ve heard this story before. Josh McDaniels gets hired by a team fresh off a successful run as the offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots. Once added by that new team, he immediately ostracizes its current quarterback, a franchise guy, and runs him out of town and replaces him with an inferior, but handpicked dude that he likes. McDaniels then turns in a terrible coaching performance and is fired halfway through his second season.

I know you’ve heard it before. Because it’s now happened twice. The first time was a year and a half stint with the Denver Broncos from 2009-2010 and the second just ended a week ago when the Las Vegas Raiders shoved McDaniels into the airlock and fired him into the vacuum of space.

McDaniels was, unquestionably, the worst head coach in the NFL and has owned that monicker since last season when he ran a Raiders team that went 10-7, made the playoffs and was a play away from knocking the eventual AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals out of the playoffs with interim head coach Rich Bisaccia, right into the turf. McDaniels took that same team, added one of the best wide receivers on the planet to it in Devante Adams, and finished 6-11.

There should be, at this point, no danger of anyone ever tossing McDaniels the keys to their franchise again. Hired as an offensive coordinator? Sure. But, honestly, I’d be wary of even that.

You see, a story popped up last week after McDaniels was loaded up into the nearest trebuchet and fired over the castle wall.

According to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, the Raiders’ players called a players and coaches meeting where they basically went full Festivus on McDaniels, apparently even beating him with the aluminum pole. It was an airing of grievances that would have made Frank Costanza weep tears of yuletide pride before he unleashes multiple feats of strength.

In that meeting, the players let McDaniels know that he sucked at pretty much every aspect of his job, as if Vegas’ win-loss record wasn’t proof enough of that. They attacked his coaching style, how he overcorrected problems on the field and blamed the players for issues he was having calling plays. Also, he apparently ran unnecessarily long meetings, which I’m guessing this wasn’t one.

Jay Glazer of Fox Sports chimed in with another delectable nugget. Antonio Pierce, who took over after the team hit the ejector seat on McDaniels as interim coach, shared his own anecdote in the above-mentioned meeting, about how the team he played linebacker for and won a Super Bowl with, the New York Giants, came together and knocked off an undefeated Patriots squad in 2007. Pierce, in an attempt to defend McDaniels, said, according to Glazer, that “the Giants had a plan and truly believed they could win no matter who they played.” Pierce felt that the Raiders needed that same attitude and to build their own culture.

McDaniels, who was OC on that Pats team, took offense and told Pierce to “never speak about the Patriots like that again.”

It was a laughable response and one worthy of Josh McDaniels, completely.

It’s a statement that Chris Long, a guy who won a Super Bowl with the Patriots, called “the lamest s—t in the world. And that’s why people don’t like certain New England people. It’s because it’s like it’s untouchable. What is the ‘Patriot way?’ I don’t know what it is, because it’s not working in New England and you certainly can’t walk into a new building and be like, ‘This is about the Patriots,’ when you haven’t done s—t.”

Which isn’t fair. McDaniels did do s—t. Literally, the most s—t job he could have possibly done And he did it twice.

McDaniels’ wraps his NFL head coaching career for good with a record of 20-32, which gives him a career winning percentage of .377, the 29^th worst of all time out of 198 total NFL coaches in the league’s history. The only other current head coach with a worse winning percentage is the New Orleans Saints Dennis Allen with a .323 and most of those losses also, coincidentally, happened with the Raiders. Allen, to be fair, went 7-10 with the Saints last season and is currently 5-4 in this one. And he’s playing the quarterback McDaniels tossed into the dustbin, Derek Carr.

What’s next for McDaniels? Well, the Raiders still have to pay him the rest of his contract, but don’t be shocked if he doesn’t land in New England as an offensive consultant. If Bill Belichick does decide that Bill O’Brien, his current offensive coordinator, can’t do the job to his liking, he’ll have no issue showing him to the nearest trap door and plopping McDaniels into the only job he’s ever been good at.

SO, WHICH HEAD COACH IS NEXT TO GET THE AX?

The current odds for the next NFL head coach to be fired are very interesting. Here’s what we’re looking at;

Matt Eberflus +225

Frank Reich +250

Ron Rivera +500

Bill Belichick +700

Mike Vrabel +1000

Brandon Staley +1200

Todd Bowles +1200

Matt Lafleur +1800

Kevin O’Connell +4000

Dennis Allen +4000

Kevin Stefanski +4000

First off, let’s knock some names off that list right now.

There’s no universe where Matt Lafleur, Kevin O’Connell, Mike Vrabel and Kevin Stefanski get fired this season. Now, there’s always a chance there’s a personality conflict like Doug Pederson had in Philadelphia that cost him a job there, but I don’t see that. The Green Bay Packers are bad this year and that’s OK. Lafleur deserves the chance to rebuild the post Aaron Rodgers team and this year is his mulligan.

Kevin O’Connell just pulled off one of the best coaching feats of the season, helping his team, the Minnesota Vikings, with Joshua Dobbs, knock off the Atlanta Falcons to stay firmly in the NFC Wild Card race in spite of losing Kirk Cousins for the season. Vrabel is the only thing keeping the Tennessee Titans competitive and he’s apparently picked the right quarterback for his team, Will Levis. He’ll be fine. Kevin Stefanski has won games with his backup quarterback, huge games, and is doing a hell of a job. Yes, the Cleveland Browns are owned by an idiot, Jimmy Haslam, but Stefanski is safe.

The name that should be on this list, but isn’t, is Arthur Smith of the Atlanta Falcons. He was my favorite to be the first head coach fired and after finally pulling the plug on Desmond Ridder, he’s absolutely on the hot seat.

As for the rest of the guys on this list? Let’s take a look at their chances.

Matt Eberflus is a dead man walking. The Bears, even if they don’t land the No. 1 overall pick (and they have two chances at it since they own the Carolina Panthers’ selection) are absolutely chucking Eberflus over the bow this offseason. They’ll hire an offensive head coach, probably trade Justin Fields, and draft Caleb Williams first overall. Hell, Lincoln Riley is apparently ready to jump to the NFL finally and this looks like the perfect spot for him.

Frank Reich? Not a chance they fire him, unless, again, he has some issue with ownership and the Panthers are owned, like the Browns, by a moron — David Tepper. Reich will get at least one more season, and the chance to spend a ton of free agent mone, to right the ship.

Ron Rivera isn’t a dead man walking. He’s a full out zombie. I like Rivera and think he’s been a great coach in the league, but he’s phoning this season in harder than ET with a new Verizon Friends & Family plan. Rivera is completely checked out and the Washington Commanders already have their next head coach in the building — Eric Bieniemy.

Would the Patriots really fire Bill Belichick? I find it hard to believe. Yes, he’s not the same head coach without Tom Brady, the best quarterback in NFL history by a wide margin, under center, but the man still has six Super Bowl Championships and nine Super Bowl appearances. He’s way more likely to just retire than get fired, though Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk has floated the possibility of Belichick being “traded” away in the offseason. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Brandon Staley is an interesting case because he’s been the source of so many of his own problems, mainly coaching decisions that have cost his team, or nearly cost his team, games. If the Los Angeles Chargers don’t make the playoffs, he might get fired. If they make it, he’ll survive another season.

Todd Bowles and Dennis Allen are in a similar boat as Staley. It’s all about the postseason and both guys coach in a crappy NFC South division. The only team making the postseason out of that crew is the squad that wins the division outright. Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints have a legitimate shot at it. I’d argue they’re the only teams that do, so whoever does don the NFC South Champ cap and t-shirt come January is the guy remaining employed. Everyone else outside of Reich, probably, will be hitting the bread line.

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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