NHL Hockey Betting Money Makers Through December 1, 2018

No matter the sport it’s important to understand team valuation. More specifically, it’s essential to know which teams are ‘profitable’ and which teams are ‘money losers’. This information has some intrinsic value but is most useful in isolating teams that are overvalued and undervalued relative to the moneyline or pointspread. In this article we’ll look at the most profitable NHL betting teams as of December 1, 2018:

NHL HOCKEY MONEYMAKERS THROUGH DECEMBER 1, 2018

BUFFALO SABRES (+11.6 UNITS)

When a team goes from ‘worst to first’ they’re going to make a lot of money. It’s a combination of them being undervalued and winning a lot of games at these inflated prices. Last year it was the Vegas Golden Knights that made a ton of money for their ‘financial backers’, so far this year it’s been the Buffalo Sabres. On Sunday, November 4 the Sabres lost 3-1 to the New York Rangers to take their record on the year to 7-6-2. They wouldn’t lose again for the better part of a month as they embarked on a franchise record 10 game winning streak. The Sabres enter the month of December tied with the Tampa Bay Lightning for the most points in the NHL (37). Buffalo is a talented team finally putting it together but they’ll be hard pressed to keep the double digit unit profits coming. To quote Sabres’ goaltender Carter Hutton: “I don’t think we’re going to sneak up on anybody anymore and that’s OK. The days of taking the Buffalo Sabres lightly have come and gone.” This is true not only for their on-ice opposition but for NHL hockey betting enthusiasts. They’ll win their share of games going forward but pricing on the Sabres won’t be the huge overlay it has been.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS (+6.4 UNITS)

A successful sports bettor needs to be honest and objective with himself. He needs to admit to himself when he was wrong. I was dead wrong about the Toronto Maple Leafs heading into the 2018-2019 season. I thought that John Tavares would mess up the chemistry that the Leafs’ young and talented nucleus had already established. Furthermore, I thought that he’d have trouble sharing the scoring load with youngsters Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. I was proven wrong almost immediately as Matthews set a NHL record with nine goals in his first five games. Tavares has been absolutely superb in his role and has made Marner and Matthews that much more dangerous. This is a very good team that should be a contender to win the East—and even more so if they can somehow get William Nylander in the fold before Saturday’s deadline.

NEW YORK ISLANDERS (+4.6 UNITS)

The Islanders have been profitable for one simple reason—they’ve exceeded the meager expectations that the betting marketplace had for them. Entering December, the Isles are 12-9-3 and just 1 point out of the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. There’s still some concern about the goaltending duo of Thomas Greiss and Robin Lehner but the nucleus of the Isles minus John Tavares is better than expected. They’re on a 93 point pace for this season which would be a 13 point improvement over 2017-2018. Even so, the Isles have been lost in the mix. Since no one seems to notice that they’re playing solid hockey they could be a good betting value going forward.

COLORADO AVALANCHE (+4.5 UNITS)

The Avs had arguably the best top line in the league last season with Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog. They’re just as good this year—MacKinnon and Rantanen are #1 and #2 in points and #1 and #3 in plus/minus. The good news is that they’re starting to get some support from younger players and so far so good for the goaltending tandem of Semyon Varlamov and Philipp Grubauer. I still think they’re an underappreciated team despite being tied with the Nashville Predators atop the Western Conference. Nathan MacKinnon might just be the best all around player in hockey. It’s sickening that he’s so good and just 23 years old.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (+3.5 UNITS)

Tampa Bay has made money for their ‘financial backers’ but might actually be overvalued at this juncture. Consider that they’ve got a record of 18-7-1 but have made just +3.5 units. Primary concern in the short term is starting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy who could miss another month with a broken foot. The good news is that former Arizona goalie Louis Domingue has held his own in Vasilevskiy’s stead.  Defenseman Ryan McDonagh is day-to-day and he’s someone who the Bolts can’t afford to lose longterm as he’s having a Norris Trophy level season.

Tomorrow we’ll head to the other end of the NHL hockey betting table and look at the biggest money losers in the league through December 1.