NHL Hockey: Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens

By BetOnline October 14, 2019

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So when will it be proper to ask what is wrong with the Tampa Bay Lightning? They’re 2-2-1 after five games which isn’t horrible or anything but for a team that shredded their way to 121 points and an easy Presidents Cup win last year it is slightly concerning. It looks like the Bolts are suffering the same malady as many other NHL teams in the early going–too much offense, not enough defense. The Lightning are tied for #4 in goals scored per game (4.00) but they’ve got to improve upon their team defense since they’re tied for #18 in that category giving up 3.40 goals per contest. The dynamic is even more problematic in that they’re being outshot badly based on the average shots for (26.4 SOG per game) and shots against (34.2 SOG per game).

The Montreal Canadiens are in a similar boat. They give up more shots per game than any team in the NHL (36.4 SOG) but take nearly as many (35.6 SOG). The reality is that some teams take and allow more shots than others. Furthermore, not all shots are created equally–and most hockey fans know that while you can’t come any closer to a goal than ringing one off the post or crossbar it *doesn’t* count as a shot on goal. Even so, there’s usually some correlation between shots taken and goals scored both for and against.

The good news for Les Habitants is that they’re scoring 4 per game which ties them for 4th with Tampa Bay (and seemingly half the other teams in the league). The bad news for le bleu, blanc et rouge (these terms along with ‘Centre Bell‘ is the only French I know) is that they’re also allowing 4.00 goals per game and no matter how many times you do the math that’s not going to get you very far in the NHL.

Both teams are expected to go with their top goaltenders for this matchup with Andrei Vasilevskiy starting for Tampa and Carey Price between the pipes for Montreal. Neither goalie is anywhere near their top form at the moment–Vasilevskiy has been slightly more effective with a 3.04 goals against average while Price has a bloated 3.38 GAA. Both goalies have been bailed out by their offense and as a result have more wins than losses.

Until these teams start to show improvement on defense, the best play is likely to be found on the NHL totals board. Between them, these teams have played a combined 10 games with only 1 ‘Under’. Habs are 4-0-1, Bolts are 4-1-0. Lightning have gone ‘Over’ in 22 of their last 31 when playing 3 or more consecutive road games. 3 of the last 4 head to head at Centre Bell have stayed ‘Under’ but just barely–the last meeting in April saw 6 goals scores just barely staying under the 6.5 total.