NHL Stanley Cup Futures Betting Value Update 10/28/19
The NHL hockey season is well underway with most teams having played at least 10 games. Now that we’ve been able to assess their performance it’s a good time to head back to the NHL futures betting odds board and look for some value opportunities. The general theory here is to find teams that look to be making a move to the upside. Futures odds can be considered a ‘lagging indicator’ for many teams. Teams that start the season poorly and then approve take a while to register in the public consciousness. This allows sharp players to get good prices on teams that could round into form by the end of the season.
NHL STANLEY CUP FUTURES BETTING VALUE UPDATE 10/28/19
VANCOUVER CANUCKS +3300
The Canucks are off to a 6-3-1 13 point start yet they’re priced the same as a number of the league’s bottom feeders. Consider that Minnesota and Dallas are also priced at +3300 despite having losing records. Taking a look at the flipside–the Arizona Coyotes have the same record as the Canucks and they’re +1600. Vancouver is currently tied in the points column with Arizona but they’re in 9th place just out of the playoff picture. At +10, Vancouver has the third best goals scored/against differential in the West behind Colorado and Nashville and are one of only seven teams in the conference with a positive number. The only Eastern Conference teams with a better differential are Buffalo and Boston (+12).
FLORIDA PANTHERS +2800
Florida was a trendy pick in the offseason with Joel Quenneville taking over as head coach and a ton of big free agent signings. They quickly fell from favor after 4 losses in their first 5 games and were dismissed by the ‘public’. But take a closer look at their performance this year–with a few lucky bounces the Panthers could be 9-2. They’ve lost 3 games in shootout and another game in overtime. Much of a team’s performance in this situations are a function of variance–a coin flip, in other words. Only two other NHL teams have more than two overtime losses (Washington and St. Louis with 3 each). Under the aforementioned scenario, Florida would be on a 9-1-0 run and the toast of the NHL. Sergei Bobrovsky will round into form–he had a tendency to start slow while playing in Columbus and he’s also trying to assimilate a new team’s culture. Panthers have won 3 of their last 4 against some tough opponents with wins at Nashville and Edmonton and home against Pittsburgh. Given the quality of coaching and goaltending the Panthers have to work with there’s every reason to think they’ll improve dramatically over the next month or two. Once they start winning, the public will be back and the prices will go down. Get them now while the price is still high.
ST. LOUIS BLUES +2500
Remember these guys? They won the Stanley Cup last year. That ring a bell? They’re 6-3-3 on the season putting them in a tie with Nashville for the second best point total in the Central Division. The Blues have been on a similar trajectory as Florida. They lost four straight games between October 12 and 19th at Montreal and the Islanders and home against Vancouver and Montreal. That’s when the public tuned out and started focusing on the more trendy teams. Two of the losses in the losing streak were after regulation and they’ve lost 3 in OT this season. Vladimir Tarasenko is out with an upper body injury and will be re-evaluated early this week. Not surprising that a defending Stanley Cup champion starts off slowly and this gives us value on what is fundamentally a very good team.
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