NHL ‘Under’ Teams Through December 12, 2018

It is imperative to understand team valuation. If you don’t know what a team is ‘worth’ in terms of line value there’s no way to bet on their games intelligently. In this article we’ll expand the concept of valuation to include totals and more specifically the tendency of teams to play ‘Over’ or ‘Under’ the total. This is an important concept in any sport but it’s especially so in the NHL given hockey’s relatively infrequent scores and the low margin for error it creates.

For a linesmaker, the goal is to split action equally and the best way to do that is to set a NHL totals line throughout the season that splits the result of bets equally. In other words, a linesmaker would love it if every NHL team played 41 games Over the total and 41 games Under the total. That doesn’t happen, however, and understanding which teams play ‘Over’ or ‘Under’ more frequently and why they do so can be extremely valuable to your handicapping. The information below includes all game action through December 11, 2018.

NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE ‘UNDER’ TEAMS

BOSTON BRUINS (10 OV 20 UN 1 PUSH)

The 2018-2019 Boston Bruins are a quintessential ‘Under’ team through this juncture of the season. They’ve got 31 games in the books with 20 going ‘Under’ the total and 1 push. The Bruins win with defense and are currently tied with the Nashville Predators for the best team goals against average in the National Hockey League (2.53). One potential danger sign for the Bruins—they give up a relatively high number of shots on goal. Boston allows 31.8 shots per game which is #20 in the league. Compare this to Nashville—both teams allow 2.53 goals per game but the Predators are #4 in shots against per game at 28.5. Good news for the Bruins—goalie Tuuka Rask has some help this year in the form of well traveled Jaroslav Halak. The former Islander/Capital/Blue/Canadien is 9-4-2 with a 2.30 GAA and a .930 save percentage. He’s been marginally better statistically than Rask this season. Boston is a good ‘Under’ team for another reason—they’ve struggled to put the puck in the net as evidenced by their #27 rank in goals per game (2.67). This number could improve as the year progresses as they’re just middle of the pack in shots taken (31.9 per game, tying them with Philadelphia for #14). The thinking is that at some point shots taken will start going in. Assuming that Rask and Halak continue their solid form the Bruins should continue to be a ‘Under’ team for the immediate future.

CAROLINA HURRICANES (9 OV 19 UN 1 PUSH)

Carolina is a tough team to figure. Everyone knows that they’ve improved dramatically on defense and that shows up in the stat line. The ‘canes are the best team in the league in limiting opponent shots on goal (27.4 shots against per game) and they’re tied for fourth in fewest goals against per game (2.71). Carolina’s problem is on the other end of the ice where they’re #29 in goals scored per game (2.50). Here’s where it gets weird—we just talked about the conventional wisdom that at some points shots taken will start translating into goals, right? Carolina leads the NHL in shots on goal per game at 38.7. They take 11.3 more shots per game than they allow but score -0.21 goals per game fewer than they give up. At some point, you think their workrate on the offensive end will pick up. Another problem for the Hurricanes is special teams ranking #23 on the power play (15.8%) and #18 on the penalty kill (79.1%). Carolina’s defense is no joke and goaltenders Curtis McElhinney and Petr Mrazek are putting up credible numbers this year but my gut instinct is that by early 2019 the ‘canes will be scoring more goals and will all of a sudden be an ‘Over’ team.

DALLAS STARS (10 OV 16 UN 4 PUSH)

Something of a shock to see the Dallas Stars among the top ‘Under’ teams but here we are. This team has changed dramatically from 2016 when they were the NHL leaders in goals per game (3.23). They’re #23 in goals scored per game through 30 games (2.77) and have the #3 scoring defense in hockey. Hard to believe that a team led by Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are better defensively than offensively but their hard work in their own zone carries over to the penalty kill (83.9% good for 5th in the league). They’re #14 on the power play (19.5%) which isn’t too bad. Big Ben Bishop is back from injury and his goaltending will make any team better defensively.

Back tomorrow with the top ‘Over’ teams in the National Hockey League!