Murkowski Bombshell Shakes Up 2026 Senate Odds

Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski dropped a bomb in an interview with political podcaster Galen Druke today.

When Druke asked Murkowski whether or not she’d consider becoming an independent and caucusing with the Democrats if their party picks up three seats in the midterms, the senator said, “There may be that possibility…there is some openness to exploring something different than the status quo.”

That exchange prompted a major odds shift across the political betting markets. 

BetOnline.ag quickly adjusted its “Senate Control” projections where the Republicans were a hefty favorite this morning. Here is the recap:

2026 Senate Control – Monday, June 23, 9 a.m. ET

Democrats        +400

Republicans      -700

(NOTE: Above odds imply an 87.5% probability GOP will control Senate)

2026 Senate Control – Monday, June 23, 4 p.m. ET

Democrats        +170

Republicans      -250

(NOTE: Above odds imply an 71.4% probability GOP will control Senate)

It doesn’t seem like a big swing, but in the world of oddsmaking, it’s a massive one.

Senate elections/control odds can be seen here: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/us-election/us-senate