Odds to Win the 2020 United States Presidential Election
We are a little more than a week away from Election Day in the United States. Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have spent billions on their campaigns to convince citizens they should be in the White House for the next four years, but only one will call the Oval Office home in January. Biden is currently the favorite per the electoral betting odds, yet Hillary Clinton was an even bigger favorite in 2016 before losing to Trump.
2020 US Presidential Election Betting Odds at BetOnline
Joe Biden -210
Donald Trump +180
The prediction markets and pollsters were all wrong in 2016, but many are turning to FiveThirtyEight once again in 2020. FiveThirtyEight was much more accurate than other websites, and they continue to be seen as the gold standard after incorporating the Cook Politico Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball into their deluxe model.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden has an 87 percent chance of winning the election as of October 25. However, the implied probability according to the political odds at BetOnline puts Biden’s chances more than 20 percent lower. This is enormous value in Biden if you believe that FiveThirtyEight is more accurate than the betting markets.
As always, the most important swing state in the election is Florida. Seven of the eight most recent polls give Biden anywhere from a one- to seven-point advantage in the Sunshine State, and that has led to him being favored in most models. However, Trump is currently a -140 favorite in the political betting odds at BetOnline.
Biden currently has a lead of more than 350,000 votes in early voting, but Trump is cutting into that edge. A large number of Democrats decided to vote by mail, but more Republicans are showing up at the polls for in-person voting each day.
It’s important for Biden to run up big leads in counties like Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach. These are the most populous counties in Florida, and he needs to pick up huge totals there as much of the rest of the Sunshine State is red.
However, there is reason for Trump supporters to be positive about his chances. Trump underperformed in Duval County in 2016, and he figures to fare much better there in 2020. Jacksonville is historically a right-leaning city, but Clinton beat Trump there by 6,000 votes in the last presidential election.
Additionally, the GOP has spent a lot of money in the I-4 corridor over the last four years. The stretch between Tampa and Orlando has been a battleground for the last two decades, and the Republicans have to like their chances considering their spend in those counties and the large proportion of seniors that continue to move into the area. Of course, there are other important states, but Florida has voted with the presidential winner in 13 of the last 14 elections. What we see in Florida generally plays out over the country as a whole due to its status as a purple state, so if Trump can win Florida, he has to like his chances nationally. If Trump loses Florida, it’s probably going to be a very long day for the GOP, as they might lose the White House and Senate.