Brazil vs USA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Basketball Showdown

As Brazil faces off against the USA in the Paris 2024 Olympic men’s basketball tournament, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

The USA enters as the overwhelming favorite, but in a one-game scenario, anything is possible. Brazil will be looking to their star player, Bruno Caboclo, to make a significant impact, but Team USA’s defensive prowess may prove too formidable.

Game Information

• Location: Bercy Arena, Paris, France
• Date: Tuesday, 8-6-2024
• Tip-off: 5:00 a.m. ET
• TV: Peacock

Current Odds at BetOnline

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Brazil	+26 (-108)	+3,000	Over 184 (-110)
USA	-26 (-112)	-10,000	Under 184 (-110)

Prediction and Best Bet

Best Bet: Bruno Caboclo Under 14.5 points (-105)

Analysis

Team USA’s roster is packed with superstars like LeBron James, Steph Curry, and Kevin Durant, but their true strength lies in their defensive capabilities. The defensive duo of Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo is particularly noteworthy, as both players are Defensive Player of the Year candidates capable of altering the game’s dynamics.

Bruno Caboclo’s Challenge

Bruno Caboclo has been Brazil’s standout performer, excelling in pick and roll situations, rebounding, and outside shooting. However, his success has primarily come against lesser competition. Against NBA-level defenders, his performance has not been as impressive. For instance, against a defensive pairing like Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama, Caboclo went scoreless in just 11 minutes due to foul trouble and defensive pressure.

Given Team USA’s defensive strengths, particularly with Davis and Adebayo’s ability to protect the rim and switch effectively, Caboclo is likely to struggle. The USA’s defensive strategy will focus on neutralizing him, making the under on his points a solid bet.

Kevin Durant’s Role

Kevin Durant Pick: Under 15.5 points (-105)

Despite recovering from a calf injury, Kevin Durant has been impressive in the Olympics. However, head coach Steve Kerr has indicated that Durant will continue to come off the bench and his minutes will be managed carefully.

Given Team USA’s significant advantage, Durant’s playing time might be limited, especially if the game is decided early. Therefore, betting on the under for Durant’s points is a strategic choice.

Team USA’s Defensive Strategy

Team USA employs a defensive strategy that allows opponents to shoot a high volume of three-pointers while denying them space inside the paint. This approach leverages their elite rim protection and is common among top NBA teams. However, it does carry some risks, as opponents can establish a rhythm from beyond the arc.

Brazil’s Three-Point Threat

Brazil has been efficient from three-point range, shooting 45.3% as a team. Vitor Benite, a veteran of the Brazilian national team, leads this effort with an impressive 56.2% from deep in group play. Given the number of threes Team USA is likely to concede, Benite is a good bet to continue his hot shooting.

Brazil vs USA Betting Trends

• USA Spread: -26 (-112)
• Brazil Spread: +26 (-108)
• Over/Under: 184 points

Key Matchups

• Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo vs Bruno Caboclo: This matchup is crucial as Davis and Adebayo’s defense will be pivotal in containing Caboclo.
• Vitor Benite’s Three-Point Shooting: Benite’s ability to score from beyond the arc will be critical for Brazil to stay competitive.

Final Thoughts

While Brazil will rely heavily on Bruno Caboclo, Team USA’s defensive depth and strategy are likely to stifle his effectiveness.

With the USA being overwhelming favorites and the defensive pairing of Davis and Adebayo, expect a dominant performance from Team USA. Betting on the under for both Caboclo’s and Durant’s points presents good value given the context and expected game flow.