{"id":16650,"date":"2021-04-18T21:34:49","date_gmt":"2021-04-18T21:34:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/?p=16650"},"modified":"2021-04-18T21:34:51","modified_gmt":"2021-04-18T21:34:51","slug":"no-one-knows-anything-about-quarterbacks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/nfl\/no-one-knows-anything-about-quarterbacks\/","title":{"rendered":"NO ONE KNOWS ANYTHING ABOUT QUARTERBACKS"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

BY ADAM GREENE<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s the one simple fact you need to understand when you\u2019re looking at pre-draft quarterback evaluations; nobody knows anything about quarterbacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s a thought out there, a provably wrong one, that NFL quarterbacks can be developed. That you can take a guy with raw talent and measurables and turn him into a franchise quarterback. The problem with that line of thinking is that it\u2019s never once happened in the entire history of professional football.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nope. NFL QBs are born. They are not made. No quarterback is whispered into existence by some guru who just happens to play the secret chord that pleases the Lord.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That doesn\u2019t mean a guy can\u2019t make the leap, as the Buffalo Bills\u2019 Josh Allen seemed to have this past season, but to act like that\u2019s coaching, mentoring, classroom work is just foolish. Because if it was, there would be more NFL franchise quarterbacks. Josh Allen was always Josh Allen. He just put it together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are, by my counting, 12 franchise guys right now. There are 3-4 guys that the jury is still out on because they\u2019re so young and then, maybe six or seven guys that are legit NFL starters. If you\u2019re doing the math, that comes to, at most, 23 QBs in a 32 team league.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is the sobering thought as we enter another NFL Draft. There are 32 franchises in the NFL. There are not 32 NFL franchise quarterbacks on the planet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s what makes it so hard to find one and so hard to judge who might turn into one. Your draft experts? Here\u2019s Mel Kiper saying JaMarcus Russell will the be next John Elway<\/a>. Mike Mayock, former ESPN draft analyst and current Las Vegas Raiders general manager, made a career of missing wildly at his QB projections. Here he is talking about Blaine Gabbert as the top QB in the 2011 NFL Draft<\/a>, the same draft that Cam Newton went No. 1.  Mayock made a career of bad QB projections<\/a>, and didn\u2019t exit the Bristol for the Raiders front officer without one final epic miss, picking Sam Darnold as his top QB in 2018<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s another sobering fact; no QB drafted in the first round since 2009 will start the 2020 season for the team that drafted him. In fact, 11 out of the 22 QBs drafted in the first round in that time frame are no longer even in the NFL. I count Andrew Luck among that 11 because I had to, but he\u2019s the only one that would be welcomed back into the league from that crew.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where does everyone go wrong? It\u2019s as simple as this; they ignore what they see and fill in the rest with their imagination. They play pretend. Except they don\u2019t call it that. They call it \u201cevaluating a guy\u2019s ceiling.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the \u201cceiling\u201d does not exist. It\u2019s fake. It is a lie. It\u2019s manufactured whole cloth out of the GM or draft pundit\u2019s brain. In fact, that 2018 NFL Draft should have shut all \u201cceiling\u201d talk for good because, and I wrote this at the time, no quarterback in that draft, and maybe in history, had a higher \u201cceiling\u201d than Lamar Jackson. If he could become an NFL quarterback, with this God-given natural athletic ability, he would easily become one of the best QBs in the NFL. But nobody, outside of me that I remember, even had Jackson going in the first round of the draft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is no \u201cceiling.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What does exist, on the other hand, is \u201cthe floor\u201d and that is where you can actually maximize your QB pick. Because \u201cthe floor\u201d is what you\u2019ve seen. It\u2019s on film. It\u2019s how the guy has performed in college on the game\u2019s biggest stages against its toughest opponents. It\u2019s believing what you have witnessed with your own eyes, in this reality. And it\u2019s why I, and no one else on Earth, had Dak Prescott as the top rated QB coming out in 2016. Jared Goff was not even in my Top Five.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Focusing on \u201cthe floor\u201d isn\u2019t foolproof. I\u2019ve whiffed on seeing what a guy could become simply because I don\u2019t live in the land of football make believe. If I was a GM, I would have missed on Patrick Mahomes, but you know who I would have drafted as my top ranked QB that year? Deshaun Watson. Not Mitchell Trubisky, as Mayock and so many others talked themselves into as the best QB prospect in 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While I did think Lamar Jackson was a first round talent, my top rated QB was Baker Mayfield in 2018. I would have missed out on both Jackson and Josh Allen, but you know who I wouldn\u2019t have been stuck with? Sam Darnold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2015 my top QB prospect was Marcus Mariota, who I still like, frankly. In 2014, it was Teddy Bridgewater, which means any team I ran would have been clear of drafting Blake Bortles or Johnny Manziel. In 2013 it was Matt Barkley so they all aren\u2019t winners, but that was a dumpster draft at QB and at least he\u2019s still in the NFL.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When I look at an NCAA QB, I want a guy that can start and win games today. Not win games in an imaginary future of flying cars, jet packs and starships. My imagination is not involved at all in the process. My eyes are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As such, my criteria for evaluating a QB doesn\u2019t begin with arm strength at all. I don\u2019t care about a guy\u2019s pro day or NFL combine showing (when they have one). To misquote Kenny Powers, I want the guy that\u2019s good at playing the real sport, not trying to be the best at exercising<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is important to me?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Can the guy read a defense?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Does he move past his first read? How deep does he get into his progressions? Does he move around and look for the play or does he bail and take off with the ball? Is he ready to fire the ball out when his back foot hits on most of his drop backs?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Does he have pocket awareness?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can he feel the rush? Does he know how to move to avoid it while keeping his eyes downfield? Does he pull the ripcord too quick, try to run, or worse, spin out from an outside rush (it can work in college, it NEVER works in the NFL).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Is he accurate?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s right, accuracy is No. 3 because if you\u2019re good at Nos. 1 and 2, you don\u2019t have to throw pinpoint accurate balls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. How did he perform in the big games against the best competition?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can\u2019t fake this. You can\u2019t pretend you\u2019re seeing something that isn\u2019t there. He either rose to the challenge or didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. Arm strength, athleticism and everything else.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

They\u2019re all piled together because they all mean the same thing to me. Dan Marino could not throw the ball 50 yards and he did alright. Kyle Boller, picked in the 2003 first round by the Baltimore Ravens, could throw the ball 70 yards from his knees. One of them is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame and the other is Kyle Boller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So that\u2019s what to keep in mind when you see my QB rankings. I\u2019m picking a guy that can win now, in real life, and not in my imagination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NFL DRAFT begins on April 29 at 8 p.m. EST. You can check out my first mock draft by clicking here<\/a>. You can view all of of BetOnline\u2019s NFL Draft props by clicking here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Follow our BetOnline Twitter accoun<\/a>t for the latest sports news and betting odds, and stay tuned on the Instagram feed<\/a> for more good information too.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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