{"id":21865,"date":"2022-03-25T17:21:39","date_gmt":"2022-03-25T21:21:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/?p=21865"},"modified":"2022-03-25T17:21:41","modified_gmt":"2022-03-25T21:21:41","slug":"quarterback-trades-turn-afc-into-survival-challenge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/nfl\/quarterback-trades-turn-afc-into-survival-challenge\/","title":{"rendered":"QUARTERBACK TRADES TURN AFC INTO SURVIVAL CHALLENGE"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

BY ADAM GREENE<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can thank the Los Angles Rams for this. A year after shattering the mold completely on team building and shipping a former No. 1 overall pick in Jared Goff along with two other first rounders and more to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford, the Rams have officially broken the NFL.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because their plan, that everyone thought was bonkers, worked. General manager Les Snead, head coach Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford himself all hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy a little over a month ago after a 23-20 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Rams assessed their roster the way we all did. They were an great team filled with playmakers and stars, but were lacking an elite quarterback. Usually, a team in that situation would continue plucking away, hoping they\u2019d break through with the guy they had or maybe start looking for a new one in the draft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not the Rams. They \u201cmortgaged the future\u201d and acquired Stafford. That future, it turns out, will be the No. 32 overall pick this season and there\u2019s a good chance it\u2019ll be the No. 32 overall next year too. No one is crying about that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The definition of insanity, it\u2019s said, is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. But that\u2019s how NFL teams have done it for decades. And that\u2019s exactly why LA wouldn\u2019t continue down that path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now that it\u2019s been proven possible and teams have been shown the way, the league has responded as it always does. By copying what works. It\u2019s the reason why McVay can never keep an assistant coach on the staff. They all get hired away for better positions, or head coaching spots, with other teams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A little over two weeks ago the Denver Broncos shocked the NFL by delivering a blockbuster package to the Seattle Seahawks in exchange for Russell Wilson<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This past week, things got even nuttier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DESHAUN WATSON TO THE CLEVELAND BROWNS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With most big time trades of this nature, the team trading the star player will look to ship the guy out of their conference if they can. It\u2019s why Devante Adams is now a Las Vegas Raider instead of, say, a Detroit Lion (even though you\u2019d think the Lions would have offered more). It\u2019s also why the aforementioned Rams sent Robert Woods to the Tennessee Titans (instead of those same Lions).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the Houston Texans? Nothing they\u2019ve done in the past half decade has made much sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As such, they opened the bidding on Deshaun Watson and while it looked as if he was heading to the NFC South (the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints were reportedly in the mix until the end), Watson ended up in Cleveland, joining a Browns team that looks an awful lot like the 2020 Rams squad that sent Goff packing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The move was seismic. The Browns, as of this writing, are now +1100 to win the AFC<\/a>. That puts them fifth in the odds behind the Buffalo Bills (+400), Kansas City Chiefs (+550), Los Angeles Chargers (+650) and Russell Wilson\u2019s Broncos (+950).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They\u2019re one spot above the defending AFC Champion Bengals (+1200) and that team has done nothing but add talent to its weakest unit, signing three new offensive linemen including La\u2019el Collins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is it a good bet?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It all depends on the outcome of the civil cases. If Watson is completely exonerated, then he can walk onto the field in Week 1 I would think. If he settles with any of the claimants, he\u2019s probably looking at a solid suspension. I\u2019m guessing eight games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if that happens, the Browns aren\u2019t making the playoffs this year. If Watson first takes the field in November, it will be nearly two calendar years since he\u2019s played an NFL snap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ll talk more about that later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CAN MATT RYAN DRIVE THE COLTS TO THE PROMISED LAND?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the NFL was still reeling from the aftershocks of Watson landing in Cleveland, the Atlanta Falcons shipped Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts in exchange for a third round pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the trade, the Falcons move on from the best quarterback in their franchise\u2019s history and eat a big pile of salary cap in the process. They will, if they work the draft correctly, at least nab a starter with that third round selection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the Colts? The addition of Ryan puts them right back into the AFC mix. They were in the playoff hunt all the way to the final weekend of the season until Carson Wentz, still playing like he had COVID-19, crapped the bed against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan is about six years removed from his MVP and Super Bowl season with the Falcons, but there\u2019s still gas in the tank. Atlanta couldn\u2019t keep a solid enough team around him. In Indianapolis, none of the heavy lifting will be on his shoulders. The team has a fantastic defense and the best running game in the sport. If Ryan can bring out 80-85 percent of what he delivered six years ago, the Colts could be an AFC Championship game team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of today, they are at +1600<\/a>, good enough for ninth best in the AFC odds behind the aforementioned teams, the Baltimore Ravens (+1200) and the Tennessee Titans (+1400).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s interesting about that is that the Colts at +115 are the current favorites in the AFC South<\/a>, above the Titans at +120.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

THE AFC WILL BE A GAUNTLET<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What makes that bet intriguing, and it\u2019s a good one, is the AFC is now completely overloaded with talented, Super Bowl worthy teams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last season three teams went 9-8 in the AFC and did not make the playoffs. How big a deal is that? The team that made the Super Bowl for the conference finished 10-7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of the teams that made significant quarterback moves, none of them made the postseason in 2021-22. One of the teams that barely made it, the Raiders, significantly upgraded its head coach and wide receiver unit. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who were probably feeling pretty good about signing Mitchell Trubisky two weeks ago, did nothing to make their Wild Card team worse. Trubisky will certainly not be a downgrade from last year\u2019s Ben Roethlisberger and, honestly, he\u2019ll probably be significantly better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trubisky is an underrated player. He\u2019s posted just one losing record as a starter in the NFL and that was his rookie season. He\u2019s 29-21 with a 64.1 career completion percentage for 10,652 yards, 64 touchdowns and 38 interceptions. He\u2019s taken two Chicago Bears teams to the playoffs and he did all that with Matt Nagy as his head coach, one of the worst in the history of the league.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mike Tomlin plus Trubisky and the Steelers, I\u2019m thinking it\u2019ll be alright. It still might not be good enough to make the playoffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the AFC in 2022-23, the only guaranteed way to make the postseason is to win your division. Those three Wild Card spots will be the most competitive in league history. And you could have probably said that last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are seven playoff spots up for grabs and according to the odds right now, four of the seven AFC favorites<\/a> didn\u2019t even make it last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just look at the teams at the top of the odds. The Bills have added Von Miller, Roger Saffold and sent COVID\u2019s favorite wide receiver Cole Beasley packing. The Chiefs traded away their best wide receiver in Tyreek Hill and brought in Marquez Valdes-Scantling to replace him. The Chargers have added Khalil Mack and Sebastian Joseph Day to their defensive front. The Broncos brought in Wilson. The Browns Watson. The Bengals added Collins, center Ted Karras and guard Alex Cappa. The Ravens will have a healthy Lamar Jackson. The Titans added Woods and the Colts brought in Ryan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below them you have the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins (who added Hill), the Raiders (Devante Adams) and Steelers (Trubisky).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a conference that will beat up on each other all season. And while the AFC West is, right now, the best division in the sport, they play the NFC West this coming season. Every AFC West team will have to go through their own division, then the Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AFC North, which just as brutal, will face the NFC South, which means a date with Tom Brady for each team, plus the New Orleans Saints defense. The Saints, without a legit QB on the roster, finished 9-8 last year too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nine wins could not only land you in the playoffs in 2022-23. It could land you a division title. A 10-11 win season could net you home field advantage in the AFC playoffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But on the flipside, a 9-8 finish could once again leave a team on the outside looking in. And with everyone listed above a realistic contender (and that\u2019s not counting on a team coming out of the woodwork. It always happens. Look at the Bengals last year), then it\u2019ll be more than three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We could be in for a wild Week 18. And, really, while I like some of these bets more than others, there\u2019s good reason to bet on any of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Connect with us our socials on Twitter<\/a> and Instagram<\/a> for the latest sports news, viral moments, betting odds and the occasional memes.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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