{"id":24075,"date":"2023-07-22T02:35:23","date_gmt":"2023-07-22T06:35:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/?p=24075"},"modified":"2023-07-22T02:35:25","modified_gmt":"2023-07-22T06:35:25","slug":"theres-no-solution-to-the-nfls-running-back-pay-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/nfl\/theres-no-solution-to-the-nfls-running-back-pay-problem\/","title":{"rendered":"THERE\u2019S NO SOLUTION TO THE NFL\u2019S RUNNING BACK PAY PROBLEM"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

BY ADAM GREENE<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuesday afternoon the NFL\u2019s Franchise Tag signing period wrapped with none of the three running backs tagged by their respective teams \u2014 Saquon Barkley (New York Giants), Tony Pollard (Dallas Cowboys) and Josh Jacobs (Las Vegas Raiders) receiving a long term contract.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pollard, as of this writing, is the only one of those backs to actually sign his $10.9 million guaranteed franchise tag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers, heading into the final year of his second contract and due $7.75 million this season, is upset about the market he\u2019ll be facing as a free agent next season, the unwillingness of his current team to give him a new contract to his liking and the overall depressed market for running backs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With all this out there, the running backs in the league have apparently started a group chat where they can bounce ideas back and forth on how to fix this problem. Their first plan of attack? Whine about it on social media<\/a> and to anyone who\u2019ll listen. And that they did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ekeler spent the offseason asking for a trade, which the team let him seek. According to Ekeler that a trade didn\u2019t materialize because he \u201ccame with a lot of baggage.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou were going to have to trade some high picks for me,\u201d Ekeler told CBS Sports Radio. \u201cThe Chargers, they weren\u2019t going to let me go for anything that wasn\u2019t up there, so they saw my value there. It\u2019s funny how when they allow me (to shop) the trade, they\u2019re like, \u2018OK, but we want you to get these types of picks,\u2019 which were not low picks. \u2018But we\u2019re not going to pay you like you\u2019re that type of player\u2026. If you\u2019re going to get traded, you got to get traded at this level, but if we\u2019re going to keep you, we\u2019re going to you down here at this level.\u2019 \u2026They have the leverage. And so that\u2019s why it was tough for me to get anything out there or get a new contract where you\u2019re going to have to give up high picks and also restructure my contract. That\u2019s just being transparent on my situation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For his part, Barley has floated the idea that he just won\u2019t sign the franchise tag or play at all this season<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMy leverage is I could day \u2018F— you\u2019 to the Giants,\u201d Barkley told the Money Matters podcast. \u201cI could say \u2018F— you to my teammates. And be like, \u2018You want me to show you my worth? You want me to show you how valuable I am to the team? I won\u2019t show up. I won\u2019t play a down.\u2019 And that\u2019s a play I could use. Anybody (that) knows me, knows that\u2019s not something I want to do. Is it something that\u2019s crossed my mind? I never thought I would ever do that, but now I\u2019m at a point where I\u2019m like, \u2018Jesus, I might have to take it to this level,\u2019 Am I prepared to take it to this level? I don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for how we got here, Ekeler\u2019s former teammate Melvin Gordon has some ideas<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think after Todd (Gurley) got paid and then (Los Angeles Rams head coach) Sean McVay come out and said, \u2018I will never a pay a running back again; I\u2019ll just use them and rotate them out,\u2019 I think after that statement was made \u2014 and then I think they won the Super Bowl \u2014 it was like everybody just followed suit\u2026 I kind of think that\u2019s where everything just started going downhill.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, what\u2019s happened? Is this some kind nefarious plan by the owners, general managers and head coaches running the NFL to keep the RB market depressed? Has the game evolved in such a way as to minimize the importance of the running back position? Is there anything running backs like Barkley, Jacobs, Pollard and Ekeler, collectively with the other RBs in the league, can do about it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My answer to all of those questions is the same. No. It\u2019s not some evil plot. It\u2019s not a change in the game and there\u2019s absolutely nothing a single position group, regardless of how united they are (and, trust me, it\u2019s just the top guys that are \u201cunited.\u201d No seventh round draft pick out of UTSA is in this group chat), that can be done to fix it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what\u2019s caused it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The position itself hasn\u2019t been undervalued. No team can win a championship without a solid running attack and a good running back. But, having a solid running attack and a good running back alone will not win you a championship. And the difference, in wins and losses, between fielding a good running back to a great one is negligible at best.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are the NFL\u2019s last 10 leading rushers<\/a>;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2022: Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders, 1,653 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2021: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts, 1,811 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2020: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans, 2,027 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2019: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans, 1,504 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2018: Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys, 1,434 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2017: Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs, 1,327 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2016: Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys, 1,631 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2015: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings, 1,485 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2014: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys, 1,845 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2013: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles, 1,607 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are the NFL\u2019s last 10 Super Bowl Champions and their leading rushers<\/a>;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2022: Kansas City Chiefs, Isiah Pacheco, 830 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2021: Los Angeles Rams, Sony Michel, 845 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2020: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Ronald Jones II, 978 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2019: Kansas City Chiefs, Damien Williams, 498 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2018: New England Patriots, Sony Michel, 931 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2017: Philadelphia Eagles, LeGarrette Blount, 766 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2016: Denver Broncos, Devontae Booker, 612 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2015: New England Patriots, LeGarrette Blount, 703 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2014: Seattle Seahawks, Marshawn Lynch, 1.306 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2013: Baltimore Ravens, Ray Rice, 660 yards<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, I am no math expert. I am in no danger of dropping my mop in the hallway and solving the unsolvable calculus problem left up on the chalkboard outside the local Ivy League professor\u2019s office. The fact that I could do change in my head back when we  used cash all the time was a feat in itself, and one that is entirely useless to me today. The only thing I used the algebra I learned in high school for was to help my own kids with their algebra work when they were in high school. I can figure out stats, averages all the calculations I need to do my work now, but that\u2019s it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, to my layman\u2019s eyes, I see that only one of those past Super Bowl Champions had even a 1,000-yard rusher (the 2014 Seahawks). Every other guy on that list is good, but no one would think of them as elite. Yet two of them, LeGarrette Blount and Sony Michel, have won two Super Bowl rings on two separate teams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, six of those 10 league leading rushers are currently unemployed by the NFL and two of them (McCoy and Murray) are probably out of the league for good. Adrian Peterson, from what I can tell, has yet to hang up his spurs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So that means the game has evolved in such a way as to make the position less valuable? I don\u2019t think that\u2019s the case. I think there are two factors involved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. We have a better overall group of quarterbacks in the NFL than we\u2019ve had in all the league\u2019s history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. The NCAA is too good at pumping out good running backs to the point that every season there are 5-7 new guys entering the league that could start on most teams from Day One.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These guys, Henry, Barkley and Jacobs, were raised in a world where the elite quarterbacks were few and far between. A world where Kerry Collins could get you to a Super Bowl just by not throwing the ball backwards every play. Hell, they lived on a planet where a Trent Dilfer could hoist a Vince Lombardi Trophy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the past 10 seasons, the three worst quarterbacks to start a Super Bowl are, and this is real, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo and Colin Kaepernick and they all lost. And two of those guys had the far better running back on their offense than the team they were facing. For Goff, it was Gurley, who was still a year away from his arthritic knee all but ending his career. For Kap, it was Frank Gore coming off a 1,214-yard, eight touchdown regular season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, if you go back through the list of Super Bowl winners, you\u2019ll find that in pretty much every case, with the lone exception of the 2013-14 Seahawks, the losing team had the better running back. And that includes Miles Sanders of last year\u2019s Eagles NFC Championship team who rushed for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns. Sanders is now with the Carolina Panthers and is making $6.35 million a season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s go back to that 2013-14 season when the Seahawks won it all with a run-first attack. Here\u2019s some of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL that season \u2014 Blaine Gabbert, Josh Freeman, EJ Manuel, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weedon, Matt Flynn, Mark Sanchez, Jake Locker, Matt Schaub, Andy Dalton, Sam Bradford, Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III, Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer. Cam Newton and Tony Romo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, I\u2019m not going to crap on Newton, Romo, Palmer and Flacco. They were all fine and Flacco, in his heyday, was one of the best postseason quarterbacks in NFL history. The dude was never one-and-done in the tournament. Not even as a rookie. Newton, of course, made it to a Super Bowl and won an MVP. Romo and Palmer, well, Tony is really good on TV. Other guys like Bradford and maybe even RG3, you could argue, had promising careers that were ruined by recurring injuries. Either way, this list is 17 out of 32 starting NFL quarterbacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the fact remains, tt was a league of Baker Mayfields, Sam Darnolds and Mac Jones, so, of course, you needed weapons other places to win. The further back you go, the more glaring the quarterback play drop off across the league becomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Go back another five years to the 2008-09 season and here\u2019s who you were dealing with as passers in the NFL \u2014 Matt Cassel, Chad Pennington, David Garrard, Jake Delhomme, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Marc Bulger, Jeff Garcia, Trent Edwards, Kerry Collins, Tyler Thigpen as well as our old friends Tony Romo, Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another five years previous in 2003 gives you \u2014 Trent Green, Matt Hasselbeck, Brad Johnson, Jon Kitna, Daunte Culpepper, Tommy Maddox, Bulger, Quincy Carter, Delhomme, Collins, Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Garcia, Jeff Blake, Jake Plummer, Patrick Ramsey (I forgot he even existed), Pennington and Jay Fielder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The drop off from Tom Bradys, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees was Grand Canyon-esque. It\u2019s not like that anymore and, it\u2019s been proven time and again, that a great quarterback, playing at the top of his game, can elevate your entire team to a championship level. How many game winning Super Bowl drives can you remember came from running back carries?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As to point No. 2, we need look no further than the 2022 NFL draft. We had 22 running backs selected in that draft class. Breece Hall, selected by the Jets in the second round, was instantly the best running back on their team, but nowhere near the best running back taken in the class. Kenneth Walker III, taken five spots behind him by the Seattle Seahawks, probably was and became their starting RB over multiple veteran options before the year was up. James Cook, taken by the Buffalo Bills at the end of the second, has now chased starter Devin Singletary out of town. Damieon Peirce, selected in the fourth, is the best RB on the Houston Texans\u2019 roster and nearly hit 1,000 yards as a rookie. The Atlanta Falcons got a 1,035-yard season out of rookie Tyler Allgeier, taken in the fifth round and they still drafted Bijan Robinson in the first round this past April. And last, but certainly not least, Isaih Pacheco, taken by the Chiefs with the 251st<\/sup> pick and the final RB taken in that entire draft, was the best runner on their team and now has a Super Bowl ring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At no other position, in no other draft in NFL history, will you find five post first round picks all playing the exact same position who take over as their team\u2019s starter before the year is up, not because of injuries, but because they\u2019re the best player for the job. These weren\u2019t guys selected to be a face of these franchises. They were picked for depth and to play special teams and they all completely supplanted the starters in front of them on the depth chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Find any other position in the NFL, even the other devalued roles of inside linebacker, center and safety, where that\u2019s ever happened. Or even possible. You can\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The truth is, Austin Ekeler and Tony Pollard are the guys that prove this point. Pollard was a fourth round pick out of Memphis in 2019 and, within half a season, it was clear that he was the superior and more explosive player when compared to Ezekiel Elliott, who was going to cost Dallas $19.8 million the very next season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And it wasn\u2019t Sean McVay and Todd Gurley that cost Melvin Gordon his job with the Chargers. (McVay has never been quoted saying anything about \u201cnot paying an RB again\u201d by the way. That was just the perception), it was Ekeler, who was signed as an undrafted free agent out of Western Colorado, that kept LA from offering Gordon more than $11 million a season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So Ekeler has his job, and got a second contract that will pay him $7.75 million this season, specifically because he proved he could perform at the same level or better than the guy the Chargers were going to pay $11 million a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gordon, for his part, also showed how silly the idea of rejecting that kind of money is for guys like Barkley and Jacobs, who have yet to sign their franchise tender. Not only did he not get more than $11 million on the open market, he\u2019s gotten nowhere close since 2021. Last year, he was with the Broncos most of the season, but was cut and landed on the Chiefs practice squad for their playoff run. He never saw the field and made just $119,400. Put that with what he made from the Broncos in 2022, and Gordon collected $2.501 million. The Chargers offered him a four-year, $44 million contract and he walked away to earn $18.487 million over the same span. And the cheaper guy that replaced him outperformed Gordon to the point that that guy, Ekeler, is now complaining about RB pay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if Barkley is serious about possibly sitting out, maybe he should look at the example set by Le\u2019Veon Bell, who did just that instead of signing his tag and accepting a five-year, $70 million contract from the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bell didn\u2019t make a dollar in 2018, signed with the New York Jets after and hated it before getting cut and bouncing around the league for three more seasons. $70 million turned into $29.341 million. Oh, and the guy the Steelers replaced Bell with, James Conner, was a 2017 third rounder that delivered 1,470 combined offensive yards in 2018 and scored 13 touchdowns to make the Pro Bowl. And Pittsburgh didn\u2019t hesitate to let him walk after his contract was up. They learned their lesson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And now every team has.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that guys like Christian McCaffery and Derrick Henry have made enough money to push the franchise tag over $10 million is a gift. No running back will ever make more than that in a season again. Sign the tag, take the money and if the Giants, Raiders and Cowboys are willing to make that the yearly salary, thank the Good Lord and take that deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The New York Giants don\u2019t make the playoffs without Barkley last season. There\u2019s no doubt about it. But he\u2019s not going to get them to the Super Bowl. Daniel Jones continuing to improve is what will do it. Barkley can either be part of that process or watch from another team who\u2019ll be home come late January. And he still won\u2019t be making $11 million or more a season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing last season and the Raiders finished well below .500. Jonathan Taylor led it in 2021 with 1,811 yards. The Indianapolis Colts finished 9-8 and didn\u2019t make the playoffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Right now, there are only three running backs even in the MVP field. Barkley at +10000, tied with<\/a> Ryan Tannehill, Jimmy Garoppolo and Ja\u2019Marr Chase. Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb are both at +20000, tied with Mac Jones, a guy who could very well be benched for Bailey Zappe by midseason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Offensive Player of the Year is a different story, with Christian McCaffrey, the highest paid running back in the league, leading the way at +1000<\/a>. Chub is +1400, Ekeler +1600, Taylor +1800, Henry at +2500, Hall at +3300, Robinson at +3300, Najee Harris at +4000, Travis Etienne at +5000, Cook at +5000, Alvin Kamara at +7500 and Rashaad Penny at +7500. There are seven other running backs with worse odds than that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact is, the Raiders and Giants couldn\u2019t be faulted at all if they pulled these tags right now and let Barkley and Jacobs walk. Are they both that much better than Dalvin Cook, who\u2019s sitting at home as a free agent right now and could be had, I\u2019m guessing, for around $7-8 million? Cook had 1,468 yards of offense with 10 touchdowns last season. Barkley finished with 1,650 yards and 10 touchdowns. Jacobs had 2,053 yards and 12 touchdowns. Cook\u2019s team went 13-4. Barkley\u2019s 9-7-1 and Jacobs\u2019 was 6-11.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sign the deal before the Giants and Raiders figure out what I just did. Take the money. There\u2019s no fixing this because there is no problem to fix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter <\/em>@TheFirstMan<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Connect with us our socials on <\/em>Twitter<\/em><\/a> and <\/em>Instagram<\/em><\/a> for the latest sports news, viral moments, betting odds and the occasional memes.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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