{"id":5052,"date":"2019-01-23T22:05:55","date_gmt":"2019-01-23T22:05:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/?p=5052"},"modified":"2019-01-25T22:09:12","modified_gmt":"2019-01-25T22:09:12","slug":"super-bowl-liii-pointspread-and-total-update-and-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/nfl\/super-bowl-liii-pointspread-and-total-update-and-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Super Bowl LIII Pointspread and Total Update And Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

We are just over a week out from the Super Bowl LIII matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots. At this point, it\u2019s not surprising to see that the Super Bowl pointspread<\/a> has settled in to a narrow band of movement. Historically, the majority of line movement for the Super Bowl has come \u2018early and late\u2019. There\u2019s always a lot of excitement immediately after the Conference Championship game ends and sportsbooks around the world post the opening number on the big game. At this stage, some line movement is to be expected as the number posted by bookmakers gets exposed to the actual betting marketplace for the first time. Likewise, its obvious that money will come as gametime draws near as recreational players get excited for the game to start and \u2018sharp\u2019 money takes a position on the outcome while they still have time to do so.<\/p>\n

For the most part, the Super Bowl pointspread has behaved as expected since our early line movement update<\/a> posted on Monday morning. The opening Super Bowl betting line had the Los Angeles Rams installed as a -1 point favorite. That price couldn\u2019t hold against the flurry of betting on arguably the most \u2018public\u2019 team in the National Football League and the Pats quickly became favored in the game. The line shot up to Pats -1.5 and after a bit of initial resistance at that point went all the way up to as high as New England -3.5. By morning, the line had settled in with a consensus at New England -2 or -2.5. There were prices as high as Pats -3 or as low as Pats -1.5 but these were outliers in the market. Although there has been little of the anticipated movement between 1 and 3 the outcome is the same\u2014New England is a solid -2.5 favorite all across the board. There\u2019s less line disparity now with fewer books differing from the -2.5 consensus though there is a -2 or -3 here and there.<\/p>\n

The total has also seen very little movement though there has been a distinct downward drift. As is the case with the pointspread on the game, there\u2019s less variety in the number from book to book with 57 clearly the consensus. In our early week update<\/a>, most books were showing at 58 or 57.5 so there\u2019s been some movement toward the \u2018Under\u2019. Since this remains one of the highest totals in Super Bowl history and given the track record of high totals in the game additional movement toward the \u2018Under\u2019 appears almost inevitable. In fact, it\u2019s somewhat surprising that we haven\u2019t seen it already. Since it appears unlikely that the total will go any higher there\u2019s less of an incentive for the \u2018sharp money\u2019 looking to go \u2018Under\u2019 the total to stay on the sidelines hoping for an extra point or two to work with.<\/p>\n

Barring something out of the ordinary, the price on both side or total should move very little for the next 5 or 6 days. As Super Bowl weekend approaches you can expect more \u2018public\u2019 money coming in on the game which might create some short term price opportunities to go against them. With the side price up against the key number of 3 and very little enthusiasm for the \u2018Over\u2019 its difficult see any extreme movement. Obviously, any move to or off of three will be quickly met with money for the other side which is essentially how sports betting is supposed to work \u2018in theory\u2019. There may be more movement on the Friday or Saturday before the game but given the dynamic around the key number you can expect a kickoff line of Patriots -2 or -2.5. <\/p>\n

The total will almost certainly continue to go lower as gametime approaches. It\u2019s just a \u2018tough sell\u2019 for most bettors to play the highest total in Super Bowl history \u2018Over\u2019 and any move in this direction will be met with more money coming in on the \u2018Under\u2019 as \u2018wise guys\u2019 take their position against the public. Keep in mind that with the game at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta there are no weather issues that could pop up on game day so any \u2018wait and see\u2019 on betting is strictly tactical in nature.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We are just over a week out from the Super Bowl LIII matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and New…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":5053,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5052","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5052"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5052\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5054,"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5052\/revisions\/5054"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5053"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5052"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5052"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5052"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}