It’s unclear if the Golden State Warriors are following the NHL playoffs but if they are the Tampa Bay Lightning will hopefully serve as a cautionary tale. For the benefit of the non-hockey fans out there here’s the story–the Lightning were flat out dominant during the regular season finishing with the fourth best point total in the history of the league. They opened their series against the Columbus Blue Jackets on home ice, quickly getting out to a 3-0 lead. Everything looked to be going as planned until Columbus scored four answered goals in the final period to steal a 4-3 win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
At that point, Tampa Bay imploded. Instead of a strong ‘bounce back’ effort in Game 2, they spotted Columbus a 3-0 lead and were never competitive in a 5-1 loss. They put up a credible effort when the series moved to Ohio for Games 3 and 4 but by then it was too late–the Blue Jackets swept the series and the Lightning became the first team in NHL history to win the President’s Trophy for best regular season record and get swept in the first round of the playoffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are some obvious thematic similarities between Tampa Bay’s Game 1 collapse and the Warriors’ Game 2 fiasco. Golden State looked unbeatable in Game 1 as they easily beat the LA Clippers 121-104. It looked like more of the same in Game 2 as Golden State led 73-50 at halftime. They would extend that lead to 31 points before the unthinkable happened. The Clippers roared back to take a 135-131 win at Oracle Arena as +15 road underdogs as they outscored Golden State 85-58 in the second half. As if that result wasn’t bad enough the Warriors also lost DeMarcus Cousins with what appears to be a season ending injury.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The scenario might be similar but there is a very significant difference between the NHL Lightning and the NBA Warriors. The Lightning were for the most part a young team trying to win the second Stanley Cup in franchise history and the first in 15 years. The Warriors have won two straight NBA titles and 3 in 4 years. In theory, Golden State has dealt with and overcome adversity during their run. Based on what we’ve seen from the team, head coach Steve Kerr and the individual players they’re a resilient group who won’t overreact to a loss–even if it was the biggest comeback in NBA playoff history. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
From the Clippers’ perspective, they have to refocus from their monumental effort in Game 2. The problem is that they could be mentally, physically and emotionally drained from digging themselves out of the 31 point hole that they could come out flat here. Should the Warriors respond with a strong effort that could be extremely problematic. Golden State’s pointspread record in ‘bounce back’ games isn’t anything great. They’re 6-3 ATS this season and 15-12 ATS over the last three seasons revenging a home loss. They’re 18-3 straight up coming off an upset loss as a favorite but just 10-11 against the spread. After giving up 115+ points they’re 21-7 SU\/14-14 ATS. The point spread records aren’t really an indictment of the Warriors as a team but they do serve to underscore the fact that they’re dealt bloated numbers on a nightly basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Golden State has performed extremely well against the Clippers at the Staples Center going 5-1 SU\/ATS over the past three years. For now, it’s probably more accurate to chalk up the Game 2 loss to a lack of focus. According to center Andrew Bogut, the team is ‘genuinely pissed off’ about blowing the 31 point lead. Golden State has shown a tendency to come out with more defensive intensity in ‘bounce back’ situations and this is evident from their situational totals records. Avenging a home loss they’ve gone Under in 7 of 9 this year and 20 of 28 over the last 3 years. Off an upset loss as a favorite, they’re Under in 15 of 21 this year. After allowing 130+ points they’re Under in 5 of 6 this season and 6 of 9 L3. <\/p>\n\n\n\n