The Boston Celtics shocked the Milwaukee Bucks at home in the opening game of this best of 7 playoff series. They haven’t done much sense. After the Bucks’ dismal showing to open the series they’ve been in complete control winning Game 2 123-102 at home and taking Game 3 in Boston 123-116. Milwaukee will try to gain complete control of this series along with a 3-1 lead as they contest Game 4 back at the TD Garden in Boston on Monday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Celtics deserve credit for staying in the game late. They led by one point at the half but were outscored 40-31 in the third quarter. They trailed by as many as 17 points in the final twelve minutes but managed to make a competitive contest of it late. Then again, there’s not much to suggest that they’ve got an answer for Milwaukee and particularly their superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo. Boston’s defense has degenerated from the active and tenacious effort in Game 1 into an updated version of the venerable ‘Hack-a Shaq’ defense, this time targeting Antetokounmpo. Game 3 featured 53 total fouls called with 39 coming in the second half. Antetokounmpo had only 13 field goal attempts but scored 16 of his 32 points from the free throw line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Antetokounmpo is exceptional at drawing fouls with his aggressive play but the ‘foul fest’ in Game 3 had everything to do with Boston’s ‘strategy’ to frustrate the Bucks’ superstar and put him on the line. It didn’t really work. As far as ‘frustrating’ Antetokounmpo and the Bucks that didn’t work either–Milwaukee outscored Boston in the paint 52-24 and scored 28 points off of 18 Celtics’ turnovers. If it served to frustrate anyone it might have been the Celtics–after the game Boston’s Kyrie Irving lamented his team’s inability to generate momentum and blamed the fouls without specifically indicting head coach Brad Stevens’ tactical strategy: “It’s getting ridiculous at this point.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Boston needs this game badly to avoid going down 3-1 in series heading back to Milwaukee. There’s a chance that the Celtics could get point guard Marcus Smart back in the lineup (currently listed as ‘questionable’) but it’s unclear if he’s ready to go or if this is simply a desperation move. At any rate, his impact will likely be minimal. He’ll be rusty and unless he’s grown to 7 feet tall during his rehab he won’t be able to do anything about the Bucks dominating in the paint. The Celtics haven’t been a good investment coming off of a loss–off a SU loss they’re 14-20 ATS on the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The current NBA betting odds show the Bucks as a +1.5 road underdog and they have gone 7-2 SU\/6-3 ATS in that situation this season. Milwaukee is now 6-1 SU\/ATS in the playoffs and there’s little reason to think that Boston will do what no one else in the NBA has been able to do and figure out a way to slow down Antetokounmpo. The Bucks are the better team with a huge mismatch in the paint. In a situation where they’re getting points and just need to win outright to cash a ticket we can’t pass them up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n