The Golden State Warriors are right where everyone expected them to be when the NBA season started–in the Western Conference Finals. Their opponent, however, is something of a surprise. The Portland Trailblazers were one of the hottest teams in the NBA in the second half of the season and in the playoffs have demonstrated an impressive ability to scrap. The Blazers went the full seven games in their previous series against the Denver Nuggets. They also showed a flair for the dramatic at the end of their opening round series against Oklahoma City as Damien Lillard hit a buzzer beating shot from out in Clackamas County to win Game 6 and send the Thunder packing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Golden State, meanwhile, has taken both of their previous matchups in six games but as has become the norm this season saw soap opera storylines and inconsistent performances. The Warriors lost two games on their home court in the opening round against the Los Angeles Clippers but that appeared to wake them up and they closed out the series at the Staples Center. The Houston series appeared that it would be tough–it was tied after four games with both teams winning a pair on their home court–but the Warriors showed a lot of guts winning two straight including another series clinching road victory. They also lost Kevin Durant in Game 5 making the Warriors’ Game 6 performance in Houston all the more impressive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Durant will definitely miss Game 1 of the Conference Finals and based on comments from head coach Steve Kerr might be out even longer. An MRI confirmed a calf strain which was better than the original suggestion that he’d suffered an Achilles tendon injury. For now, he’s out for Game 1 and will be re-evaluated on Thursday. DeMarcus Cousins is ‘unlikely’ to return during the Conference Finals as he recovers from a torn left quad. Kerr concluded that in the case of both players a return is not ‘imminent’. The Blazers could be without guard Rodney Hood who is listed as ‘questionable’ for this game. The only other entry on their injury report is Jusuf Nurkic who suffered a season ending ankle injury in late March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At least for now, the only way to play this game is to take the points with the Blazers. Golden State has been horrific against the NBA pointspread<\/a> this season. They currently stand at 40-53-1 for the season (43%) and have lost -18.3 units for their financial backers. The only team in the league with a bigger unit loss this year is the New York Knicks who dropped -18.7 units in their dismal season. There’s a strong probability that Golden State will finish the year as the worst ATS team in the NBA. Obviously, their situation is much different than New York’s–the Knicks are just a bad team. The Warriors are a very good team but their performance against the spread strongly validates the theory that they are ‘overvalued’. The last time the Blazers played at Golden State was in late December–Portland was a +9 underdog in that game. They’re getting almost as many points here despite their impressive second half form and the absence of Kevin Durant. Golden State has won 11 of the last 15 meetings head to head but Portland has been very competitive against the number. The Blazers are 8-7 ATS in the past three years against the Warriors including 4-3 at Golden State. <\/p>\n\n\n\n