An important concept for sports handicappers to understand: recency bias. A formal definition of recency bias would say something like “the phenomenon of a person easily remembering an event that happened recently, compared to remembering something that occurred a while back.” When I was first learning the ropes as a sports bettor one of my older mentors explained it like this: “no team is as good as they look at their best or as bad as they look at their worst.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Flashback to the end of the 2017-2018 NBA playoffs. LeBron James was still a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers and although the team was summarily dismissed in four straight by the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals no one blamed him for the sweep. How could you? LeBron was an absolute monster and averaged 34 PPG, 10 APG and 8.5 RPG during the four game series. The conventional wisdom among NBA cognoscenti was that LeBron remained among the greatest players ever to step on a basketball court.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We’re just over a year removed from that point and much has changed. The Warriors are no longer NBA Champions and LeBron is a member of the Los Angeles Lakers. The current crop of free agents has radically altered the balance of power in both conferences and the LA Clippers are the favorites to win the NBA Championship after signing Kawhi Leonard. You’ll also notice that virtually no one is talking about LeBron James. If they are talking about him, it’s in reference to the Lakers’ miserable 2018-2019 season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
LeBron missed nearly 30 games due to injury but lest we forget when he was playing he was as effective as ever–at least from a statistical standpoint. For his career, LeBron has averaged 27.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 7.2 APG. For the 2018-2019 NBA season, LeBron averaged 27.4 PPG, 8.5 RPG an 8.2 APG. Not exactly the stat line of a guy on his ‘last legs’. To be sure, there was plenty wrong in Los Angeles this year and for the most part it wasn’t LeBron’s fault. Most of the problems have been addressed and at worst the roster the Lakers will put on the floor to start the 2019-2020 season will be just as good as the teams he played on in Cleveland. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
All of this brings us to the NBA regular season win totals odds for the Lakers and the Clippers. As is the case in most betting markets with a comparative component between the Lakers and Clippers, LA’s *other* team is favored to do better. The Clippers O\/U win total is 55.5 while the Lakers is 51.5. Only three teams in the league won more than 55.5 games last year–the Bucks, Raptors and Warriors. The Clippers definitely have a influx of talent with Leonard and Paul George but it’s still a tall order to win 56 or more games. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Lakers’ task is far more realistic. Obviously, you can’t handicap injuries but having LeBron avoid injury could cash the ‘Over’ by itself. The Lakers played 27 games without LeBron last year and won 37 games on the season. Had LeBron not missed that time you can make a very conservative estimate that the Lakers would have gone .500 or better in the 27 games he was out. That would be 13.5 additional wins or 50.5 wins on the season. With as awful as the Lakers were at times last season if LeBron stays healthy they’re on the cusp of 51 wins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
LeBron’s dominance and the impact of the time he missed due to injury has been forgotten in all of the free agent hype. The Clippers will have a good team this year but the ‘Over’ 55.5 wins is a tall order. The Lakers have a much more realistic task at hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n