After the Major League Baseball All-Star Break the focus turns to the push for the playoffs. This year, however, the pennant races in most divisions might not actually materialize. In four of the six MLB divisions the first place team has a lead of 5.5 games or more over the second place team. In a couple of divisions the first place team is on the verge of running away with the title. In the AL East, the New York Yankees are cruising having won 7 of 10 and hold a 9 game advantage over the second place Tampa Bay Rays. In the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers have all but clinched the division title even though it’s only July 21. The Dodgers hold a whopping 15.5 game lead over the second place Arizona Diamondbacks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The National League East is semi-competitive with the Atlanta Braves up 5.5 games over the Washington Nationals and 7 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. In the American League West the Houston Astros have a 6.5 game lead over the Oakland Athletics. The A’s are in good form, however, having won 8 of 10. At least the AL Central has some competitive interest–the Minnesota Twins are slumping and now have a 3 game edge over the surging Cleveland Indians. The most competitive division in baseball, however, is the NL Central where the Chicago Cubs hold a 2.5 game advantage over the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers. There is so much parity in the NL Central that it’s impossible at this juncture to conclude that any team is out of the hunt. Fourth place Pittsburgh is just 7.5 games back and 5th place Cincinnati is just 9 games back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this preview we’ll look at a Monday NL Central matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are in last place and aren’t in particularly good form having lost 7 of their last 10 games. Even so, they’re not an ‘easy out’. In contrast to many Cincinnati teams in recent years they’ve been very effective pitching this season and enter with the #2 ERA in the National League (3.91) and the #5 ERA in Major League Baseball. Their problem has been on offense where they’ve got the #25 team batting average in the Majors at .242. Milwaukee has a team BA of .249 which isn’t much better and ranks them #19 in the Majors. The Brewers pitching has been marginal at best with a 4.59 ERA ranking them #16 in MLB and #10 in the National League.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Cincinnati will start right hander Sonny Gray who has looked extremely sharp of late despite not getting much help from his teammates. Gray checks in with a 3.31 ERA overall, a 3.35 road ERA and a very impressive 1.29 ERA in his last three starts where he’s averaged 7 innings per assignment and has allowed a total of 3 runs and 11 hits while striking out 29. The problem is that the Reds’ offense has hung him out to dry on multiple occasions this year. So too has the Cincinnati bullpen. That’s how despite Gray’s solid pitching of late the Reds managed to lose 2 of his last 3 starts scoring a total of 7 runs in support. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Milwaukee’s Chase Anderson doesn’t have quite as impressive YTD numbers with a 3.88 ERA overall and a 4.05 ERA at home. He’s looked better in his most recent starts allowing just 4 runs in 14 2\/3 innings of work during his L3 starts but as with Gray his work has been undone by the Brewers’ bats and bullpen. His head to head record against Cincinnati is in line with his overall stats but Gray has looked very good when facing the Brewers. Gray’s team is 4-0 when he starts against Milwaukee and he’s got a 1.85 ERA. He faced the Brewers at home on July 3 and flat out dominated in a 3-0 complete game shutout where he allowed just 4 hits and 1 walk while striking out 12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One very strange situational disparity between the two teams–the Reds have cleaned up in night games going 31-24 +9.8 units under the lights. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has been abysmal at night with a 30-34 -12 unit record. The head to head series has been very competitive this year–Milwaukee holds a 7-6 edge but the teams have split 6 games at Miller Park. Cincy has the much better pitcher in this matchup and since we’re getting him at ‘plus money’ on the MLB baseball betting odds<\/a> board it’s an even better play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n