{"id":6170,"date":"2019-08-26T17:19:40","date_gmt":"2019-08-26T17:19:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/?p=6170"},"modified":"2019-08-26T17:30:09","modified_gmt":"2019-08-26T17:30:09","slug":"the-indianapolis-colts-are-now-the-best-betting-value-in-the-nfl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/nfl\/the-indianapolis-colts-are-now-the-best-betting-value-in-the-nfl\/","title":{"rendered":"The Indianapolis Colts Are Now The Best Betting Value In The NFL"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Andrew Luck’s retirement at the age of 29 was one of the more shocking events we’ve witnessed in sports recently but life goes on. Jacoby Brissett is now the Colts’ starting quarterback but judging from the reaction of the NFL betting<\/a> market you’d think that Jamarcus Russell would be under center for Indianapolis. You’ll find no better example of a profound bordering on hysterical overreaction to news than the Indianapolis Colts who have gone from the favorites to win the AFC South to the longest odds in the division at +450–significantly longer than the Tennessee Titans at +300.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The betting public struggles when it comes to the NFL for a number of reasons but one of the most significant is their tendency to overvalue the significance of certain players and positions. They’ll freak out when a starting quarterback is lost to injury (or in this case retirement) but not make a peep when a team’s entire offensive line is gutted. They also do a bad job making a qualitative assessment of a star player’s replacement. No one will admit it now, but the ‘public’ completely freaked out when the New England Patriots lost starting quarterback Drew Bledsoe to injury at the start of the 2001 season. The conventional wisdom was that the Pats had nary a chance to make the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl, with their backup quarterback thrust into a starting role. The team and backup quarterback Tom Brady did not concur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, we’re not anointing Jacoby Brissett the next Tom Brady. What we are doing is emphasizing the fact that he’s a capable quarterback that will be surrounded by a very good team. Brissett has never had the opportunity to prove what he can do as a starter and now he will. The public doesn’t have any confidence in Brissett but any number of serious thinking NFL players and coaches do. He was drafted by none other than Bill Belichick who was so impressed with Brissett that he made the choice despite having not only a great starting quarterback in Brady but one of the best backups in the league in Jimmy Garoppolo. Colts GM Chris Ballard calls Brissett ‘a rare, rare leader’. Head coach Frank Reich thinks very highly of him as does the team’s former starting quarterback Mr. Andrew Luck who summed up Brissett in a few words: \u201cDiligent, sharp, loves football.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what is the impact of going from a top 5 quarterback in Luck to a top 25 quarterback in Brissett? Tough to say but keep in mind that the Andrew Luck that retired this weekend was a physically banged up and mentally fatigued ‘top 5 quarterback’ who by all accounts no longer had his head in the game. Brissett is a healthy, motivated and confident ‘top 25 quarterback’ given the best opportunity of his career. He’s behind an excellent offensive line and is surrounded by playmakers none more significant than wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Eric Ebron. The defense ranked #11 in total defense and #10 in scoring defense and added All Pro linebacker Justin Houston in the offseason. The Colts absolutely killed it in the draft this year and brought in a ton of talent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Colts’ players won’t be pining away for Luck like he’s a long lost girlfriend. In fact, the psychological dynamic of his retirement could actually benefit the Colts. It’s completely different when a player is injured–even for the longterm. In that situation, the backup is essentially keeping the seat warm for the starter. Mentally, the rest of the team are looking forward to the starter’s return. In the Colts’ situation that’s not the case and they’re all in on Brissett. Frank Reich can design plays and make roster moves to play to Brissett’s strengths. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The public is treating the Colts like ‘distressed goods’ and they are nothing of the sort. I’d suggest taking a position on them all over the betting board before the season starts. They’re a gift at +450 to win the AFC South behind a Houston team expected to regress this year, a Jacksonville team with serious questions on offense and a Tennessee team with questions across the board. Their revised win total is also a borderline ridiculous value that will cash if the Colts go .500. Ditto their ‘Will They Make The Playoffs’ prop. Bet the Colts all over the board and you’ll be getting some of the best value that you’ll ever find in sports betting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BET INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +450 TO WIN AFC SOUTH
BET INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 7 WINS -125
BET INDIANAPOLIS COLTS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS–YES +360<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Get the latest NFL football odds and information–follow BetOnline.ag on Twitter<\/a>!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Andrew Luck’s retirement at the age of 29 was one of the more shocking events we’ve witnessed in sports recently…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":6171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6170","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t