{"id":6379,"date":"2019-09-11T17:59:25","date_gmt":"2019-09-11T17:59:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/?p=6379"},"modified":"2019-09-11T17:59:28","modified_gmt":"2019-09-11T17:59:28","slug":"nfl-betting-week-2-proposition-betting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/nfl\/nfl-betting-week-2-proposition-betting\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Betting: Week 2 Proposition Betting"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

An eventful Week 1 of the NFL football season is in the books and we’re already hard at work handicapping the forthcoming second week of the campaign. BetOnline.ag<\/a> has some very interesting ‘NFL Weekly Specials’ listed among their NFL regular season prop odds<\/a> which will likely be a recurring feature going forward. Let’s run through a few of the ‘weekly props’ and see if we can find any interesting ones:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NFL WEEKLY PROPOSITION ODDS FOR WEEK 2<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

ODELL BECKHAM, JR TO WEAR WHAT TYPE OF WATCH WEEK 2?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

One of the more amusing Week 1 storylines concerned ODB’s watch. He was spotted wearing a $190,000 Richard Mille watch during the Browns’ opening game loss to the Tennessee Titans. ODB is planning to wear the watch Week 2 and he’s definitely a guy with brand loyalty. About the Richard Mille watch he commented:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“I’ll still be wearing it. The same way I wear it every day I go to practice, when I go here, I go there, been wearing it. Take a shower with it on. It’s just on me.”<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maybe some clever watch manufacturer will want to leverage ODB’s penchant for expensive timepieces for some publicity but for now he’ll be sticking with the Richard Mille watch. This is one of those ‘bet a lot to win a little’ props but since the bet will be graded ‘No Action’ if he doesn’t wear a watch this is a good value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BET ODB TO WEAR RICHARD MILLE WATCH IN WEEK 2 -5000<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

HOW MANY TEAMS WILL SCORE 40 OR MORE POINTS WEEK 2<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Statistically, there’s only one way to play this prop. With the time honored investment caveat that “past performance is no indication of future results” we can get some data from the 2018 NFL season. Obviously this is a ‘short sample size’ but it would likely be counterproductive to extend the research back too far. Rule changes, changes in the nature of the game, etc. greatly influence scoring. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Based on 2018 season data, there were 32 instances when teams scored 40 or more points. Over a 17 week season this works out to an average of 1.88 teams per week. As far as the week to week tally, 5 weeks had more than 2 teams scoring 40+, 8 weeks had under 2 teams scoring 40+ and 4 had exactly 2 teams scoring 40+. So if we factor out the ‘push’ results the ‘true odds’ would have the ‘Under’ a -141 favorite (approximately) with the ‘true odds’ of the ‘Over’ at plus money. Obviously anything can happen week to week but there’s only one smart way to play this prop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BET HOW MANY TEAMS WILL SCORE 40 OR MORE POINTS WEEK 2–UNDER 2 -120<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

WILL ANY TEAM SCORE MORE THAN 59 POINTS IN A GAME?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The bet appears to refer to the entire 2019 regular season. It’s one of those ‘bet a lot\/win a little’ wagers but statistically it’s a very strong play. In the 2018 season the most points scored by one team in a single game was 54. That was the wild Monday Night Football game where the Rams beat the Chiefs 54-51. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So how common is it for a team to score over 59 points in a regular season game? Not very. First of all, the only way it would likely happen would be in a ‘shootout’ game as in the previous example. It’s highly unlikely that any coach would drop 60 points on an overmatched opponent even if they *could* do so. The Baltimore Ravens scored 59 against the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 but they clearly were trying to ‘go easy’ on their opponent in the seccond half. They scored 42 in the first half and just 17 in the second half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since we need 60 points to cash this bet let’s look at the ‘past performance data’. Lopsided scores were much more common in the NFL’s earlier days likely due to less parity in the game. The top 8 single game scores by one team occurred prior to 1967. By the 1980’s it was extremely uncommon. There have been 20 teams to put up 60 or more in a NFL game and only 3 occurred later than 1973. The New York Jets scored 62 in 1985, the Cincinnati Bengals scored 61 in 1989 and the Chicago Bears scored 61 in 1980. In other words, the 60 point mark hasn’t been reached in 30 years of regular season play. The Jacksonville Jaguars did score 62 on the Miami Dolphins during a 62-7 playoff drubbing in 2000. At the -500 price for ‘No’ on this prop the implied probability is 83.3%. The ‘true odds’ of a 60+ point outburst are definitely lower than 16.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WILL ANY TEAM SCORE MORE THAN 59 POINTS IN A GAME?–BET NO -500<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Get the latest NFL football odds and information–follow BetOnline.ag on Twitter<\/a>!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An eventful Week 1 of the NFL football season is in the books and we’re already hard at work handicapping…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":6381,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6379","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6379"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6379\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6382,"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6379\/revisions\/6382"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6381"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6379"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6379"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.betonline.ag\/news-room\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6379"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}