The New England Patriots have been cruising for much of the NFL season but they\u2019ve mostly played cupcakes. Now they\u2019ll get a stiffer test as they visit the 5-2 Baltimore Ravens for Sunday Night Football. The Ravens are fresh off a bye and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a bye under John Harbaugh, so maybe they surprise here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Patriots have the best defense in the AFC. Maybe not the whole NFL \u2013 the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints have an argument to make \u2013 but certainly the AFC. No other AFC team can boast of a defense which has allowed just four offensive touchdowns in eight games this season. The Patriots have not allowed more than 14 points to any team they have faced this season, and in those two games in which they allowed 14 points, at least some of those points (if not all) were not given up by the defense in particular. The most offensive points the Patriots\u2019 defense has allowed in a single game came this past Sunday against the Cleveland Browns: 13 points. This is a ridiculous level of consistent high-level production. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the Patriots defense is stellar, the Ravens defense has been far from it. We\u2019re talking about a team that\u2019s ranked 26th in pass defense. Their secondary has taken a lot of criticism but the bigger issue has been up front where they\u2019ve generated just 12 sacks. Only four teams have less. If Tom Brady has time to make reads and decisions, this game won\u2019t be close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There\u2019s a lot of talk about how the Patriots have beaten up on a soft schedule but what about Baltimore? Their wins are against Miami, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Seattle. The Seahawks win is quality but everything else isn\u2019t that impressive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even though New England\u2019s defense has been incredible, the Patriots\u2019 offense has not been very special. The Patriots\u2019 offense has been competent and responsible, doing what it needs to do to win, but nothing more. The Patriots are getting short fields as a result of all the takeaways the defense has gained. The dominance of the defense also means the Patriots\u2019 offense gets more possessions. New England has scored four defensive touchdowns this season, and that doesn\u2019t count the drives the Patriots have started in an opponent\u2019s half of the field. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
For the most part, everyone who has faced the Patriots this season has handed them wins. Cleveland, for instance, coughed up three turnovers on three straight first quarter plays last Sunday, and then added 13 penalties to boot. If the Ravens come out and simply take care of the football and punt from time to time, they\u2019ll be in this game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A big concern in this spot for New England is their rushing yard average at just 95.2 yards per game (23rd). Going on the road without a ground game is always tough and that could be a problem here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The struggles of the Patriots\u2019 running game, combined with the Ravens coming off a bye likely means we see more of a defensive game here. Keep in mind that the Patriots also have some kicking woes after cutting Mike Nugent, so that could keep some points off the board. This feels like an under.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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