The Selection Committee is not giving the Baylor Bears any respect. \nBaylor is one of five remaining undefeated teams in college football, \nbut the Bears are No. 13 in the latest College Football Playoff \nrankings. They dropped from No. 12 to No. 13 despite moving to 9-0 after\n a triple overtime win against TCU last week, and they are double digit \nunderdogs per the college football betting odds at home against the \nOklahoma Sooners this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This line has moved considerably since it opened. Oklahoma was \ninitially -8.5 on the opening college football betting odds, but the \nSooners have been bet up to -10. This game is in Waco, but Oklahoma has \nbeat Baylor in 25 of the 28 meetings between these two schools and most \nof them have been blowouts. The total has not moved since it opened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The team that has won the last nine games in this series has scored \nat least 41 points in its victory. Oklahoma has largely had the better \nof Baylor, yet Art Briles knocked off the Sooners three times earlier \nthis decade. Briles used his Air Raid offense to light up Oklahoma\u2019s \ndefense in those victories, but Matt Rhule has a much different scheme \nthat emphasizes defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Baylor has the best defense in the Big 12, so Oklahoma\u2019s offense will\n receive its toughest test to date. Thus far, the Sooners have passed \nall their tests with flying colors, as Jalen Hurts is posting mind \nboggling numbers. Hurts is on pace to smash some lofty records. He is \naveraging an incredibly 13.3 YPA in Lincoln Riley\u2019s offense, completing \n73.3 percent of his passes for over 2,700 yards with 24 touchdowns and \nfour interceptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hurts has been incredible in the run game too. He has run for 869 \nyards and 15 touchdowns this season, and those gaudy numbers are why he \nremains a contender for the Heisman Trophy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Sooners have incredible talent at the skill positions too. \nOklahoma lost Trey Sermon for the season in last week\u2019s 42-41 win over \nIowa State, but Kennedy Brooks and Rhamondre Stevenson are both \naveraging more than 8.2 YPC on the year. CeeDee Lamb has made a name for\n himself as one of the top receivers in the nation with 44 receptions \nfor 983 yards and 13 touchdowns, and Charleston Rambo is also averaging \nover 21.0 yards per reception. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite playing in the offense heavy Big 12, Baylor has shined on \ndefense. The Bears held TCU to nine points in regulation last week, and \nthey are allowing just 4.4 yards per play. Baylor\u2019s front seven is \nallowing just 3.3 YPC while the secondary is allowing 6.0 YPA, \nshowcasing a balance that is uncommon in this conference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Perhaps we were a little premature when we declared that Oklahoma had\n solved its problems on defense. The Sooners\u2019 defense had improved \nmarkedly under Alex Grinch through the first half of 2019, but they have\n had real trouble against Kansas State and Iowa State the last two \nweeks. Neither team is particularly talented, indicating flaws in \nGrinch\u2019s scheme, and those will need to be addressed for Oklahoma to \nmake the CFP. They remain the Big 12\u2019s best hope to win the national \nchampionship with odds of 20-1, but we saw this defense get exploited by\n Georgia and Alabama in each of the last two CFP Semifinals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Baylor doesn\u2019t have a great offense. Matt Rhule prioritizes ball \ncontrol and winning the time of possession battle, and that is reflected\n in his scheme. The Bears run the ball more than they pass even though \nthis is one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country. They \nare averaging 9.1 YPA with Charlie Brewer completing nearly two-thirds \nof his passes for over 2,300 yards with 16 touchdowns and four \ninterceptions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Denzel Mims and Tyquan Thornton have been Brewer\u2019s favorite \nreceivers, while John Lovett and Jamycal Hasty have split the carries at\n running back. The latter duo is averaging a shade over 6.0 YPC this \nseason, but they have run into trouble with the ground game in recent \nweeks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Oklahoma is going to score at least 40 points on Baylor, so the \nquestion is whether the Bears can keep up? I think they\u2019ll be able to as\n Rhule turns Brewer loose in a game that flies over the total.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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