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College Football Betting: Semi-Final #1 - Clemson Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Posted by The Wiesguy on 12/22/2015 8:11:18 PM

By all accounts the selection committee got it right with the teams they selected for the second playoffs. Clemson was a no brainer as an undefeated Power Five champ while you can argue that no team was playing better over the final month of the season than Oklahoma. I am looking forward to this one.

Clemson Tigers (13-0) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1)

Thursday December 31

4:00PM

Sun Life Stadium - Miami, Florida

Tigers -3.5, 64

Clemson

All season long pundits have been waiting for the other shoe to drop for Clemson. I don’t think this is a team for all time but it is very good and it might have one the best quarterbacks of the modern era directing it. This is one of the more complete teams in college football blessed with high level talent all over the field and seemingly no significant weakness. When you pair that with a playmaker like QB Deshaun Watson it is easy to see why they have a zero in the loss column. Teams have gotten close though, especially in the last couple of weeks.

Oklahoma

Were it not for a very surprising loss to Texas in their annual rivalry game it could be Oklahoma with that #1 next to their name heading into this one (though we would have likely got a different matchup). The Sooners, led by QB Baker Mayfield have one of the most explosive offenses in the country and and also one of the most balanced. They are also strong on defense, having limited the likes of Baylor, TCU and OKlahoma State below season averages. They can play score for score with Clemson if they need to and profile very similarly overall except Mayfield does not do as much with his legs as Watson does.

Prediction: Per the spread I expect this to be a close game. There might be a couple of runs where one club scores a couple of times in a row but it will even out. You don’t want to get too emotional but it does feel like it is Clemson’s/Dabo’s year. With Watson up his sleeve the Tigers advance to the Championship game. Watson scores the winner taking it out of the hands of those kicker type. You never know what can happen with those guys. Pull it down to -3 for safety sake.

Pick: Clemson -3.5

Betting Trends:

Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.

Over is 4-0 in Sooners last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.

Over is 6-1 in Sooners last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 vs. Big 12.

Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.

Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.

Injuries/Notes:

Clemson

WR Artavis Scott - Probable

WR Mike Williams - Out

Oklahoma

CB Jordan Thomas - Probable

The Sooners have a few freshmen who are academic casualties.

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