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UFC Betting: UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Manuwa Preview

Posted by The Wiesguy on 3/4/2014 8:55:07 PM

The next UFC Fight is UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Manuwa live from the O2 arena in London, England. The date of the card is Saturday March 8 and it will only be available to those who have the UFC Fight Pass. I wonder how that product is doing.

As the name suggests the feature bout will be between Alexander Gustafson and Jimi Manuwa. Gustafson is looking to get a rematch against Jon Jones who beat him in September and most think he will get it if he can get past the unbeaten Manuwa and Jones wins his next fight. Manuwa is 14-0 and to be honest just has a mean look about him. He is from England and his last 5 fights have been TKOs. Gustafson may not look like much but there is good reason he is a very heavy favourite in this one at -410.  Odds are Gustafson will continue to frustrate the powerful Manuwa before ultimately winning by decision.

There is a great bit of research circulating that also says Gustafson is the odds on fighter to back in this one as it looks at how fighters do after fighting for a championship. In the light heavyweight division challengers who lose are 16-5-2 in their next fight. That is a pretty good winning percentage. FYI it is better for challengers than champs who lose, they are just 5-5. 

The next best fight should be between Michael “The Menace” Johnson and Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard.  Guillard might want to start looking for a new nickname because at 30 he is not exactly young anymore and the assassin moniker might not fit for a guy who last lost 4 of his last 6 fights. Johnson is the favourite to win and will. I can not recall seeing a fighter with as many fight on his record as his 44 (Guillard). Johnson is just a slight favourite (-120) so there is some great value there.

They should be calling this one the all experienced card as their is only one fighter who has less than 10 bouts under his belt. That outlier is Luke Barnatt (7-0) who is a long, lean middleweight. He will be taking on Mats Nilsson who will be giving up 5 inches to the guy they call “The Bigslow”. I am not sure that is a nickname to aspire too. The experts are saying that Nilsson should take in a fight that might go the distance. He is just the better all around fighter.

Besides Manuwa and Barnatt there is only one other undefeated fighter for this card. That would be Gunnar Nelson (11-0-1). He will be taking on Omari Akhmedov from Russia. He has only beaten once so this should be a pretty even fight on the surface.  Again the expert opinion has the undefeated fighter going down, though this one is not expected to last nearly as long. Akmedov is currently +165. He just might be the best value on the whole card. 


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