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MMA Betting: UFC 172 Jones-Teixeira Preview

Posted by The Wiesguy on 4/24/2014 9:18:53 PM

They may not have the most creative names but it is hard to argue with the UFC cards and their ability to make good fights. The next pay per view event is headlined by Jon Jones vs. Glover Teixeira on Saturday April 26, live from the Baltimore Arena in Baltimore MD.

Jon Jones is the light heavyweight champ and for many is the best fighter, pound for pound, in the UFC. He has lost just one fight in his career and that was all the way back in 2009 to Matt Hammill. The man they call Bones is not only one of the best but one of the most complete fighters around too. He can knock you out, take you down, or make you submit, all with relative ease. This will be the 7th defense of his title and he is almost always in the main event.

His opponent, Glover Teixeira, has put up an impressive 20-2 record over the years and is considered the #2 challenger for the title. Though he does not have the same recognition of Jones he has been beating a lot of the same guys to earn this title shot and he has not lost a fight since 2005. He is more than capable of dominating a fight with 7 of his last 10 over before the end of the first round. Despite all that Jones is a prohibitive favourite at -575. It would take a lot of guts to call this one for Teixeira but at least you would be rewarded appropriately. He is currently listed at +445.  The total rounds on this fight is set at 3.5 so if you think that Teixeira has a chance maybe take the over. The chances of him getting into Jones early and take him out seem slim but maybe he can make the fight last to a decision. 

The second billing on this card is another light heavyweight tilt between Phil “Mr. Wonderful” Davis and Anthony “Rumble” Johnson. Davis hs only lost one fight in his career, to Rashad Evans a couple of years ago. It seems like he might be stalking guys like Teixeira for a title shot against Jones in the near future. He probably leaves too much to the refs though with 6 decisions among his 12 wins.

I am not sure how he got the nickname Rumble but Johnson is a striker, with 4 of his last 5 matches ending by KO or TKO. He has not lost a fight in a couple of years and should be sharp given that he last fought in January. Johnson has never won a fight by submission so his strategy will be to keep this one as upright as possible and fire away at Davis. Right now Davis is a favourite at -200 but with the way that Johnson goes after opponents I think there could be good value on the underdog at +170. A punchers chance so to speak.  The total rounds for this fight is only 2.5. If you think Johnson is the play maybe the under is the way to go here. The longer the fight goes the more it favours Davis.

There are just 3 undefeated fighters on the UFC 172 card. Two of them are females and they will be facing off against each other. Those fighters are Jessamyn Duke and Bethe Correia. This will be a very interesting fight. Duke has only 3 victories under her belt but will have an extreme advantage with a 7” height difference against Correia. Correia is a perfect 7-0 but 6 of those fights have been won by decision so it is not like she has been putting her opponents away. With that extra reach Duke may be able keep her at bay rather easily. I have to admit that when it comes to women’s MMA I am far from an expert but this difference in length is really intriguing to me. Add to that that you can get Duke at +100 and I think that is a bet worth taking, especially if you are mixing things up with multiple selections from the card. The rounds total is 2.5 which I also think might be worth taking the over on. Again that size difference could mean for an extended feeling out process. We might get most of the way through round 1 without their being much action. 

The only other undefeated fighter on the card is Chris “The Real Deal” Beal, who is 8-0 and taking on fellow bantamweight Patrick Williams. My question about him is that if he is the real deal then how come so many of his fights are decided by decision, 6 out of 8. Williams has striking power with his last two fights TKOs in the first round. The Real Deal is the favourite at -140 but given those odds they are expecting that this first fight on the card should be a pretty good appetizer for the main events later on.

There is only one fight on the card that has a rounds total below 2.5 and that is the middleweight tilt between Luke Rockhold and Tim “The Barbarian” Boetsch. Boetsch may have the catchy nickname but the oddsmakers are not giving him much of a chance, he is the largest underdog on the card at +575. It is easy to see why given that he is older, with a shorter reach and more losses in his MMA career. In fact he has lost two of his last three fights.

Rockhold on the other hand is in prime shape with just one loss in his last 10 fights. They should probably call him the Barbarian with the way he destroys opponents. Of his 11 wins 9 have come by KO or TKO and he usually gets it over with quickly - only two of his thirteen fights have even made it to the second round. He is at -800 and if you think taking the over is the way to go the oddsmakers are discouraging you by dropping the price all the way down to -165. It is interesting how the totals are all over the map in terms of value but I guess that is because unlike traditional team sports there are only so many numbers that can be laid up there. 

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