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MMA Betting: UFC 189: Mended vs. McGregor Main Card Preview

Posted by The Wiesguy on 7/7/2015 10:14:14 PM

The next big event on the UFC schedule is UFC 189: Mendes vs. McGregor on Saturday July 11 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. The feature bout is for the interim Featherweight Championship and based on the odds we should get a show.

It is nice that we are getting a marquee bout that also offers good betting options on both sides as it feels like we haven’t had that in a while. Both Conor McGregor and Chad Mendes have matching 17-2 records but McGregor is the favourite at -140. The Irish fighter has not lost since 2010 and has been perfect since joining UFC - four TKOs in five bouts is pretty impressive. Mendes raced out to a 10-0 start to his career before joining the circuit and is just 7-2 since. Both losses are to Jose Aldo though so maybe there is a style thing there. Both of these fighters like to get things over quickly so we should be in for a very exciting first round.

There is another title fight on the card as Robbie Lawler looks to defend his welterweight belt against Rory McDonald. You would think that would make him the favourite but McDonald is currently listed at -185, even though his last loss was actually to Lawler back in 2013. Lawler took the title from Johnny Hendricks in December and is one of the more experienced fighter on the circuit with a record of 25-10. McDonald can be a beast though and will not likely let this one come to a decision, which is how Lawler usually prevails. Even at -185 he is still a good bet.

Of the three other matches on the Main Card the one that looks the best is another welterweight bout between Gunnar Nelson and Brandon Thatch. Thatch is the favourite even though he is coming off a loss to Benson Henderson. It was his first loss since 2008 and every single one of those matches was over before the end of the first round. Nelson is also coming off a loss, the first of his career at the hands of Rick Story (a split decision). He is not new to UFC but this is his first time being on the big event. I am not saying that he is not up for it but that might be part of the reason he is such a big underdog.

At -900 I certainly cannot recommend betting on Thomas Almeida as he puts his perfect record (18-0) on the line against Brad Pickett. The bantamweight will be making his third appearance in the UFC and needs to keep winning against this calibre of competition if he want to make it up the rankings and start fightings for some hardware. Pickett is experienced (24-10) so perhaps there is some value in playing on the rounds total and betting that he pushes the fight more than a couple of rounds.


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