Examining 2020 AFC South Win Totals

The AFC South is again going to be a tricky division to handicap as there are three teams that are in the range of 6-10 to 10-6, and then there is the rebuilding Jacksonville Jaguars. We see as much in the regular season win totals with three of the teams at 8 or 8.5, and the Jaguars at 5.5. Let’s take a look at each team and see if there’s value with some of these futures.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

2020 REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTAL: 8.5

The Colts signed Xavier Rhodes to bolster their secondary, getting him from the Minnesota Vikings, but this is not the biggest name the Colts landed in free agency. Philip Rivers spent roughly a decade and a half with the Chargers, but he is now the Colts’ starting quarterback, with Jacoby Brissett being the backup after the team decided to keep him and allowed Brian Hoyer to leave for the New England Patriots. The Colts needed a strong starting quarterback, and while Rivers’ arm strength has declined, he is the mature, veteran presence who – with good players around him on the Indianapolis offense – represents a clear upgrade from Brissett, who showed considerable talent but was simply not consistent or wise enough to be a starting quarterback for a full NFL season. The Colts are a better team now than they were before free agency began.

HOUSTON TEXANS

2020 REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTAL: 8

Talk about idiocy. The Texans – who have lacked a general manager and have allowed head coach Bill O’Brien to be their main wheeler and dealer – are paying the price for their lack of organizational structure and stability. O’Brien, who allowed Jadeveon Clowney to go to the Seattle Seahawks a year ago, has now blundered into another terrible transaction, with DeAndre Hopkins going to the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for running back David Johnson. The Texans lost an elite wide receiver and a great teammate for Deshaun Watson, all so that they could get a banged-up running back who is on the downside of his career. The Texans are objectively a worse team than they were before free agency. Some of the other moves they made around the edges, such as getting cornerback Eric Murray from the Kansas City Chiefs, were examples of overpaying for relatively mediocre quality. O’Brien is a mediocre coach who is a bad trader and manager of personnel. This team’s fortunes are declining.

TENNESSEE TITANS

2020 REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTAL: 8.5

The Titans secured quarterback Ryan Tannehill and paid their quarterback handsomely. They let Marcus Mariota go to the Las Vegas Raiders. Offensive lineman Jack Conklin went to the Cleveland Browns, which will hurt the Titans, but they did sign pass rusher Vic Beasley, grabbing him from the Atlanta Falcons, which could be a boost to this team’s defense. Tennessee looks like a better team than Houston at this point, probably the favorite to win the AFC South in the coming NFL season. Yet, there is hardly a guarantee that the Titans are headed on an upward trajectory. Tannehill needs to prove he is an elite quarterback in the NFL, and that is not certain as of now.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

2020 REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTAL: 5.5

The Jaguars took some chances on players who have either struggled in recent years or who have been injured a lot, such as pass rusher Al Woods, linebacker Cassius Marsh, and tight end Tyler Eifert. These are gambles and not sure-fire improvements to the roster. The Jaguars’ biggest roster change was clearly a negative one: they allowed Calais Campbell, an elite defensive player, to go to the Baltimore Ravens. That is a huge loss for the Jags’ defense. They traded Nick Foles to the Chicago Bears, which affirms that Gardner Minshew will be their starting quarterback in Week 1. The Jaguars have not made themselves better in free agency.

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