FRIDAY AFTERNOON QUARTERBACK: NFL WEEK EIGHT

BY ADAM GREENE

A handful of mediocre weeks finally spelled disaster for me, as I took a serious hit in both the straight up and against the spread totals for the season. Of course, I pick every game and that’s always going to be challenge, but a game over .500 is just not the look I want to take into the second half of the season.

Needing a hot start to the week, of course I dropped Thursday Night’s game both straight up and against the spread as the Atlanta Falcons did the improbable; they took a lead in the fourth quarter and kept it. It’s the kind of thing that can only happen on Halloween during a global pandemic. End of the world type stuff. Dogs and cats living together. Mass hysteria!

But this is not the time to fold up like, say, Atlanta usually does in the fourth quarter before Thursday night. This is the time to do what the Falcons actually did Thursday night, hold on for a tight victory thanks in large part to the opponent’s misfortune in key moments. My fingers are crossed.

Byes: Arizona Cardinals, Washington Football Team, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT DETROIT LIONS (+2.5, O/U: 50)

If I’m going to get this picks comeback rolling, it’s going to have to start with this game. But, looking at Detroit with a hot Matthew Stafford, I feel like I’m a men’s room attendant watching Matt Patricia walk my way rubbing his stomach. This man could easily ruin my life.

Still, Stafford aside, the Colts are coming in off a bye and the coaching chasm between Patricia and Indy’s Frank Reich is the Grand Canyon. Colts 30, Lions 23

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6, O/U: 51)

Mike Zimmer just signed a contract extension and Kirk Cousins is counting $21 million against the salary cap this season and $31 million next year if he’s on the team and an astounding $41 million if they cut him. Here’s what I’m saying. We can talk hot seat all we want with Zimmer. We can pick apart Cousins’ game. I don’t think anything’s going to change. And that includes a hide-your-eyes beating at the hands of Green Bay. Packers 34, Vikings 19

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-3.5, O/U: 41)

It’s time. The Patriots are on the ropes. There’s talk that they’re holding a fire sale on their talented players to build some draft capital and fast forward to free agency. The Bills are not only thinking postseason, but possibly Super Bowl. They’re favored. They have the better team. But we’ve heard this song before. This is the perfect time for Bill Belichick’s deal with the devil to prove it’s once again ironclad. Still, I’m gritting my teeth and going Buffalo. Bills 31, Patriots 26

TENNESSEE TITANS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (+5.5, O/U: 52.5)

The Titans are coming in off a tough loss, where they saw their comeback go wide left as kicker Stephen Gostkowski’s foot caught COVID at the last second. Joe Burrow nearly had the second victory of his career, before Baker Mayfield and the Browns worked their way down the field in the final minute to steal it with a touchdown. If these teams were evenly matched, you would have to ask yourself who was stung worse in their loss and is looking for some payback. But they’re not. The Bengals are a honey bee and the Titans are Murder Hornets. Titans 34, Bengals 20

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5, O/U: 51)

If you had told me back in August that a game between the Raiders and Chiefs at the midpoint of the season would have playoff implications, I would have… done nothing really, as I was locked down in my home with my kids, trying desperately to avoid the moronic plague rats licking doorknobs and shotgunning Clorox in my community. At any rate, you have to pick here who you trust less in this situation; Las Vegas head coach Jon Gruden or the Cleveland Browns as an organization. Raiders 28, Browns 23

NEW YORK JETS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-19.5, O/U: 49)

Here’s your concern if you’re wagering on this game and you’re taking the Chiefs at -19.5, a spread you just don’t see in the NFL. In the NCAA, sure. I’m sure the Akron Zips would feel downright flattered to see a near 20-point spread if they were traveling to Clemson. In professional football, it’s an insult and for the Jets, well deserved.

But what should be a concern is the amount of points it would take for Kansas City to all but secure this victory. Let’s say 24. And let’s say that the Chiefs score that in the first half, which might be the easiest bet you could make if someone offered it to you. How long is Andy Reid leaving his starters in this game? Is Patrick Mahomes and company playing three quarters? And, if they don’t, then you’ve got to be scared of that spread as New York’s starters chip into the Chiefs second and third team reserves.

I mean, Sam Darnold is back and that means something I guess. The point is, the Jets should just hit the “sim to draft” button on Madden and close this thing up. And Kansas City will probably score 40 in the first half so this spread is probably safe. Chiefs 42, Jets 10

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (+3.5, O/U: 46)

I’m as excited as anyone to see the Dolphins put quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on the field, but the place to do it was two weeks ago with they faced the hapless Jets. Tua did take some snaps at the end and has prepped during his bye week. But he’s facing the Rams, one of the top defenses in the league and Aaron Donald enters this game feeling the need to give the rookie QB a good first time cuddle. Meanwhile the Rams dusted off the offense that didn’t make the trip to San Francisco two weeks ago to run and pass all over the Bears defense that is far superior to Miami’s. All the rookie QBs have us excited; Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and now Tagovailoa, but this line is far too friendly and people are expecting Tua to show up like he did at Alabama in game one. I don’t see it. Rams 34, Dolphins 13

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5, O/U: 46.5)

For the Ravens, here’s where the rubber meets the hard road ahead. They likely do not have the schedule to keep them from the postseason. What they also haven’t shown, in spite of their record, is a consistent passing game that can give them success once they get there. The Steelers are the final undefeated team in the NFL and a legitimate Super Bowl contender. They have the defensive coaching staff and players to scheme against what Baltimore does. Pittsburgh has just one 7-0 start in its history, in 1978 and it pushed them to the Super Bowl and their third Vince Lombardi Trophy as a franchise. I don’t think the Ravens did enough to expand their offense in their cakewalk games and, in fact, were played tough the last time they faced even a halfway decent defense. The holes show up again in this one. Steelers 27, Ravens 16

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT DENVER BRONCOS (No Line Available)

The Chargers got hit with a positive COVID-19 test, with guard Ryan Groy going on the reserve list and his close contacts sent to the house. Needless to say, that’s killed the line on this one as no one can say for sure it will be played Sunday, or played at all. Last week we ran into this with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Raiders and came through unscathed. Whether they play it Sunday, Monday or Tuesday, I’m surprising myself a little with the pick here. I love Justin Herbert just like everyone else, but Denver is a plucky team this year and they’re playing at home. Broncos 20, Chargers 17

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT CHICAGO BEARS (+5, O/U: 43.5)

These two teams are closer to each other than you think, certainly closer than the oddsmakers feel with the Bears at +5. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is still at the bottom of the NFL in air yards per pass, averaging 5.2, which wouldn’t even pass coronoavirus social distance muster. The Bears have an elite defense and Nick Foles got his periodic bad game out of the way against the Rams. Bears 24, Saints 23

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3, O/U: 53.5)

The 49ers have resuscitated their season with two consecutive quality wins, so the last thing they needed was the Seahawks to lose a game to the Cardinals last week. Russell Wilson isn’t dropping two games in a row from his stainless steel barbecue tongs. Seahawks 31, 49ers 23

THIS WEEK

Straight up: 0-1

Against the spread: 0-1

LAST WEEK

Straight up: 7-7

Against the spread: 4-10

SEASON

Straight up: 72-32-1

Against the spread: 53-52

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