Best Bets at the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational

While it’s not a green jacket, there is some attire on the line this week at the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Competitors will be after a red cardigan that has been awarded each year since Palmer’s death in 2016, ensuring that his legacy will live on. Rory McIlroy is the favorite to win this year’s tournament, and he is one of four golfers that already has one of these iconic sweaters.

Event Details

Event: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Category: PGA Tour

Date: March 4-7, 2021

Location: Bay Hill Club and Lodge, Bay Hill, Florida

Past Winners

2020: Tyrrell Hatton -4

2019: Francesco Molinari -12

2018: Rory McIlroy -18

2017: Marc Leishman -11

2016: Jason Day -17

Only four golfers were able to finish under par last year. Frequent wind gusts wreaked havoc on the competitors, leading to the lowest greens in regulation rate of any non-major in well over a decade. Tyrrell Hatton won the tournament with a four-under, and he claimed the title despite shooting over par on both Saturday and Sunday. That was the highest winning score ever at this event. Marc Leishman was the runner-up, and he nearly became the first repeat winner of Arnie’s cardigan.

Leishman won the first cardigan awarded in 2017. He shot a three-under in the fourth round to beat out Kevin Kisner and Charley Hoffman who each started the day in the lead at nine-under. Rory McIlroy finished two shots behind Leishman, but he broke through next year with an 18-under to win. McIlroy won by three strokes and secured the second-best winning score at this event since 2004.

The Course

This is a par-72 course that measures over 7,400 yards. While it’s possible to put up great scores here under good conditions, things can be difficult if the weather takes a turn. Unfortunately, rain is in the forecast over the weekend, and the winds are supposed to pick up then too. The only good news about that is those conditions would lead to slower greens that can rate up to 13 ½ feet on the Stimpmeter.

Value Play to Win the Tournament: Marc Leishman +5000

Leishman is a longshot, but he has had a lot of success at Bay Hill over the last decade. He finished third here in 2011, won the 2017 edition, and finished runner-up to Hatton last year. Leishman also has a seventh-place finish here to his credit in 2018, so that’s three T7 finishes in the last four events. He is a longshot since he has just two top ten finishes this season, but he is a solid scrambler and performs better in windy conditions than his counterparts.

Top 5 Prop: Rory McIlroy +200

Is McIlroy primed to win his second PGA Tour event since his TPC win in Jacksonville two years ago? He just might be after his third T8 finish of the year at the World Golf Championships in Bradenton last week. McIlroy seems to perform better in the Southeast, and he has finished T6 here for four straight years. That makes +200 a bargain for this prop.

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