PREDICTING THE NFL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

BY ADAM GREENE

Every other year, it seems, the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award field is wide open. This is one of those seasons. Last year, not so much. The second quarterback Alex Smith took the field for the Washington Football Team coming back from an horrific leg injury which nearly got it amputated, the trophy was his.

But in 2019, we didn’t have that situation. Ryan Tannehill, fresh from a trade (and another injury shortened season) from the Miami Dolphins, claimed the award after leading the Tennessee Titans to the AFC Championship game.

Generally, the CPotY award goes to the guy having the best season returning from an injury. In fact, to find a guy that won the award just because he had a surprising campaign, you have to go all the way back to John Kitna of the Cincinnati Benglas in 2003.

Knowing that, we’ve got a solid and very top-heavy field of possibles thanks to so many key players losing a year to injury in 2020.

Here’s your contenders according to the odds:

Dak Prescott +175

Joe Burrow +600

Saquon Barkley +900

Christian McCaffrey +900

Carson Wentz +900

Nick Bosa +1200

Sam Darnold +1200

Jameis Winston +1200

Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff +1200

Jimmy Garoppolo +1600

Von Miller +1800

Derwin James +2000

Tim Tebow +2000

Odell Beckham Jr. +2000

Joe Mixon +2800

Tyrod Taylor +2800

Danielle Hunter +3300

Don’t’a Hightower +5000

Kyle Long +5000

We have to start with the quarterbacks. Since the award began in 1998, QBs have won it 14 out of 23 times, including the first ever CPotY trophy winner, Doug Flutie in 1998.

Dak Prescott (+175) is the favorite for good reason. When he went down last season, he was one of the best QBs in the league, putting up monster numbers every week in spite of Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy’s amateur playcalling and his swinging door defense. If the Cowboys could have made the playoffs (and with a healthy Prescott they might have in a garbage NFC East), Prescott could have been in the MVP conversation if he’d kept those numbers up. He wouldn’t have won it. Aaron Rodgers ran away with it. But he’d been in the mix.

Sticking with quarterbacks, Joe Burrow (+600) could be a real contender if he can actually get the Bengals into the postseason. It’s not happened since 2015 and Cincinnati has won a playoff game since 1990. A double digit win season and possibly coming into the Wild Card round as a favorite could put Burrow over the top. Especially if Prescott can’t do the same in Dallas.

Carson Wentz (+900) could have been a real contender, but he hurt his foot Friday in Indianapolis Colts training camp and might not be ready to start when the season begins. With his injury history, there’s no guarantee he’ll stay on the field even if he can make it back from this one. He’s too risky for me.

Sam Darnold (+1200) and Jameis Winston (+1200) don’t seem like realistic options. Darnold, now with the Carolina Panthers, could very well be heading to Blaine Gabbert lifetime back up territory. Winston could be OK as the New Orleans Saints quarterbacl, but unless you really think he can power that team over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South, put your cash somewhere else.

Jimmy Garoppolo (+1600) might not even start for the San Francisco 49ers all season and could very well be traded before the deadline. Tyrod Taylor (+2800) has never been anything more than a band aid and, with Deshaun Watson in Houston Texans camp and possibly untradable until his legal issues clear up, Taylor might not start a game.

For an offensive linemen like Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff (+1200), who skipped last season on a COVID-19 opt out and Kyle Long (+5000) who came out of retirement, every other guy on the list would have to flop this season for them to be real considerations. Long is already hurt and should miss the rest of camp. I’d scratch them both off.

Your guys who could really steal it are the top running backs, Saquon Barkley (+900) and Christian McCaffrey (+900). Both missed most, if not all of last season with injuries. An elite season, rushing and receiving from either of them and they could literally run away with it. McCaffrey is a real danger because of his abilities as a receiver. In 2019, he rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns and caught 116 passes for 1,005 yards and four touchdowns. If he does that, he’s taking this hardware.

Tim Tebow (+2000) simply won’t play enough. The Cleveland Browns offense will probably get Odell Beckham Jr. back to the 1,000 yard club, but to win this, he’d need something like a 1,500 yard 8-10 TD season and that’s just not their style of play.

Nick Bosa (+1200) had a good enough season, as a rookie, to take the DRotY award and make the Pro Bowl in 2019, but nine sacks isn’t going to take the Comeback Player of the Year award amongst this field. It’s just too deep.

Your best “dark horse” candidate, if you can call him that, is Von Miller (+1800) of the Denver Broncos. In his entire career, if Miller plays 16 games, he hits double digits in sacks. Now, a 10-12 sack season won’t get it done, but a 15-19 sack season certainly would. If the Denver Broncos are in the AFC Wild Card hunt, and I think they will be, that’ll just add some extra attention to Miller in his CPotY push.

To me, Prescott and McCaffrey are the best bets here, but I won’t talk you out of Miller, who will enter the season fired up and could very easily hit 16 sacks by its end.

The NFL season begins on Thursday, Sep. 9 and the Week 1 Schedule is already up and taking bets at BetOnline.AG.

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