College Football Preview – Cincinnati Bearcats vs. SMU Mustangs

Will this be the week that the Cincinnati Bearcats crack into the top four of the College Football Playoff? Cincinnati has been on the edge of the playoff for the last two weeks, ranking No. 5, and three of the teams ahead of them will have to take on ranked opponents. The Bearcats won’t find it easy to take down the 8-2 SMU Mustangs though, as SMU has an explosive offense that can put points on the board.

The Cincinnati Bearcats will host the SMU Mustangs at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio on Saturday, November 20, 2021, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

College Football Betting Odds

SMU +11.5

Cincinnati -11.5

Total 64.5

Cincinnati is the highest ranked Group of Five team we’ve ever seen in the CFP era. The Bearcats are knocking on the door, and they would love to kick it down. However, they have had some struggles in recent weeks, failing to cover since blasting UCF at home in mid-October. The oddsmakers have seemingly learned their lesson, as they were favored by at least 22 points in all those games.

This could be Sonny Dykes’ last game on the sidelines of SMU. Dykes is a very popular coaching candidate, and he is looking to move to the Power Five after the Mustangs were left out in the most recent conference shuffling. They started the season 7-0 before suffering back-to-back losses against Houston and Memphis, but they blasted UCF last week and can finish with double-digit wins in 2021.

When SMU Has the Ball

Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai has had a fantastic season with the Mustangs. He is completing almost 70% of his passes for 3,264 yards with 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Mordecai has three excellent receivers to target in Danny Gray, Rashee Rice, and Reggie Roberson Jr. That has made this passing game one of the best in the country.

Ulysses Bentley IV is finally looking healthy once more. Bentley is averaging 7.1 YPC, but he missed some games due to injury. Tre Siggers is the leading rusher for SMU with 663 yards (4.8 YPC) and eight touchdowns on the year.

Cincinnati has one of the best defenses in the nation. The Bearcats are allowing 17.2 PPG and 322.8 YPG. Their secondary has been exceptional, allowing 5.6 YPA and 164.9 YPG. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 51.5% of their passes, and Cincinnati has 16 interceptions on the year. All those stats rank in the top four nationally.

When Cincinnati Has the Ball

Desmond Ridder is not the first-round pick that a few analysts were speculating he would be at the start of his senior season. Ridder is playing well though, completing 65.9% of his passes for 8.4 YPA with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has run for 279 yards and five touchdowns too.

Jerome Ford could surpass 1,000 yards for the season in this game. Ford has 888 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground, and he is averaging 6.3 YPC. He should be an all-conference selection at the end of the season too.

SMU has done a good job stopping the run. The Mustangs are allowing 3.4 YPC and 126.7 YPG on the ground. However, the pass defense has been another story entirely. They are giving up 8.4 YPA and 287.2 YPG through the air.

Prediction

This game is going to be closer than the experts think. Ridder won’t be able to punish SMU’s secondary like other quarterbacks, while Mordecai will have some success against Cincinnati’s defensive backs.

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