WHAT WE LEARNED: NFL WEEK 13

BY ADAM GREENE

As we inch closer to the end of the season, the NFL picture gets a little clearer. And while the postseason participants have yet to be set, we have a pretty good idea who isn’t going to go and why.

But even losers are professionals, which is why….

DETROIT’S VICTORY SHOWS HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO GO WINLESS

The NFL moved to a 16 game schedule in 1978. It took exactly 30 years for the first team to go 0-16, the 2008 Detroit Lions. For the first 15 years of those three decades, unrestricted free agency did not exist in the NFL. There was no salary cap, nor a salary floor. And yet, it took that long for one team to not only be bad enough, but also be unlucky enough to go 0-16 in a single season.

We didn’t have to wait another full decade for it to happen as the 2017 Cleveland Browns stepped up to the plate to notch their own 0-16 campaign. Even then, nine years between is a solid amount of time.

So it was too much to expect, or even hope, that the Lions, owners of two of the NFL’s winless seasons (they went 0-11 in 1942) would step up and give us a third here in the league’s first 17 game campaign.

And the thing is, the Lions aren’t the worst team in the league. They are more talented than both the Houston Texans and New York Jets and probably the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yet all three of those squads have two wins apiece. The Lions, before Sunday, had only a tie as anything positive.

I’ve said before that with a worst to first draft, a salary cap, salary floor and open free agency, going completely defeated should be just as difficult as going undefeated and I’ve been proven correct once again. If there was ever a team with the history, the talent and the sad sack nature to do it, it was the 2021 Lions, especially after getting off to their disastrous start.

Tying with the Steelers a month ago, while depriving us all of the potential 0-17 spectacle, only made it worse. At their best, they just didn’t lose.

But in that stretch of 10 losses, they had five in which they fell by a single score. One flip of the coin, a literal bounce of the ball per game this year, and this 1-10-1 franchise could be 7-5. That’s the NFL they play in and we watch every week. Where the difference between landing the No. 1 overall pick in April 2022’s draft and holding down a Wild Card playoff spot is, literally, a single play per game.

It gets no easier for the Lions and, frankly, for their sake they need to lose out. They are no longer in danger of going winless, so any victory from here on, while it might feel good on that particular Sunday, could possibly cost them the No. 1 overall pick and that looks more and more like Aiden Hutchinson out of Michigan (which their fanbase would love) or Kayvon Thibodeaux out of Oregon if he beats Hutchinson out. There’s really no way to go wrong (though, like I said, Hutchinson seems like a no brainer considering where he plays).

You win another game? You might knock yourself out of either of those guys. Frankly, it could happen with a game at the Atlanta Falcons coming up on the schedule. 2-14-1 is probably a No. 5 pick at best right now. You would hate to see the Lions go through all this misery for that.

IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY

Well, thanks to the Buffalo Bills letting the weather of their own stadium affect their play (which is an insane thing to write), we have a top spot shake up in the AFC. In the NFC, it’s pretty much the same as last week, but there’s still plenty of games to be played.

AFC

1. New England Patriots (9-4)

2. Tennessee Titans (8-4)

3. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)

4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)

5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-5)

6. Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)

7. Buffalo Bills (7-5)

WILD CARD GAMES

Bills at Titans

Bengals at Ravens

Chargers at Chiefs

Realistically in the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (7-6), Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1), Cleveland Browns (6-6), Las Vegas Raiders (6-6), Denver Broncos (6-6), Miami Dolphins (6-7).

Key games this week: Steelers at Vikings, Ravens at Browns, Raiders at Chiefs, 49ers at Bengals, Bills at Buccaneers

With the Bills taking a dump on their own field Monday night, the Bucs game becomes a must win. If they drop that, and they absolutely could, they might be out of the bracket entirely thanks to the Colts having the week off. If the Steelers beat the Vikings Thursday night, they could grab the sixth seed with a Tampa Bay win over Buffalo and a San Francisco win over the Bengals.

NFC

1. Arizona Cardinals (10-2)

2. Green Bay Packers (9-3)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)

4. Dallas Cowboys (8-4)

5. Los Angeles Rams (8-4)

6. Washington Football Team (6-6)

7. San Francisco 49ers (6-6)

WILD CARD GAMES

49ers at Packers

WFT at Buccaneers

Rams at Cowboys

Realistically in the hunt: Philadelphia Eagles (6-7), Minnesota Vikings (5-7), Carolina Panthers (5-7), Atlanta Falcons (5-7), New Orleans Saints (5-7)

Key games this week: Falcons at Panthers, Cowboys at WFT, 49ers at Bengals, Bills at Buccaneers, Rams at Cardinals

If the Rams have any hope of hosting a playoff game, they have to knock off the Cardinals on Monday Night Football. A loss there all but guarantees road games throughout the postseason and probably hands Arizona the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. If the WFT beats off the Cowboys, it changes nothing but WFT’s seed, keeping them at six. A loss drops them to seven if the 49ers also lose to the Bengals. Either way, both the 49ers and WFT remain in the bracket win or lose this week.

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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