RANKING THE 2022-23 NFL HEAD COACHING CLASS

BY ADAM GREENE

After all the coaching turnover last season, it only made sense that this “Black Monday” would be a little calmer when the axes started to fall. Not so, as we ended up with nine NFL head coaching openings and all of them were interviewing potential replacements by the time the NFL played its Divisional Round.

As with every year, there are winners and losers, even when it comes to hiring a head coach. Sometimes you can literally lose right out of the gate, as the Houston Texans did last season hiring David Culley. Other times, it takes a few months into the season to figure out that you’ve doomed your franchise. I’m looking at you, Jacksonville Jaguars, who I thought made the top hire of last offseason in Urban Meyer.

So, yeah, my rankings are pretty definitive. I mean, who could have predicted the guy would kick his own player before getting a public lap dance? Where was that futures prop?

Two of the seven guys hired last season never made it to their second year. Both were disasters and both (Meyer and Culley) were at opposite sides of my list a year ago. Nick Sirianai, who I ranked No. 4, was the only man to get his squad to the postseason. Brandon Staley, who I had at five, almost made it and at least finished with a winning record.

Dan Campbell got a lot out of the Detroit Lions by the end of the year, and certainly endeared himself with the fanbase and media. I had him ranked sixth. Robert Saleh and Arthur Smith were just pretty much guys coaching bad teams. Next season, they’ll need to show they’ve accomplished something.

Last year we had no former NFL head coaches land a job. This offseason, we have four out of the nine who used to prowl a franchise’s sideline scowling under a headset.

Hey, I have a lot to make up for from last season with the list, so let’s start with a guy that probably shouldn’t have been fired a year ago.

1. DOUG PEDERSON, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Previous Job: Philadelphia Eagles Head Coach

Pederson sat out this past season and I’m surprised he wasn’t linked to more jobs. He’s got the resume, a Super Bowl championship and considering Carson Wentz’s 2021-22 season, he should be off the hook on how things went south in Philadelphia.

Pederson is 46-39-1 with a 4-2 mark in the postseason. I know Jacksonville was talking to plenty of coaches and even (maybe) had Byron Leftwich all but closed on the deal, but Pederson looks like the right guy to me. He’s built a Super Bowl champion from this kind of team before and if there’s anyone who can put Trevor Lawrence’s career on track it’s the guy that made everyone believe Wentz was a franchise quarterback for four seasons.

2. BRIAN DABOLL, NEW YORK GIANTS

Previous Job: Buffalo Bills Offensive Coordinator

Brian Flores is suing the NFL over being asked to a sham interview with a Giants team that was hiring Daboll regardless of how it went. For the Giants, at least, Daboll makes more sense. He’s been key in the development of Josh Allen, one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. If New York thinks Daniel Jones has any chance to be a legit franchise quarterback, they had to hire that kind of guy to run the show and try to save him.

Daboll has his work cut out for him, but I’d be shocked if the Giants didn’t look like a significantly better team from the opening kickoff of the 2022-23 season. Ironically, Jones has similar, if lesser, skills than Allen. If you had Daniel Jones as your starting fantasy football quarterback in September, you probably don’t know much about the NFL, but also did pretty well in the points department.

There’s tons of work to do on the offense, but Daboll will already have the best running back he’s ever coached as long as the team doesn’t trade Saquon Barkley.

3. KEVIN O’CONNELL, MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Previous Job: Los Angeles Rams Offensive Coordinator

The last domino to officially fall hit the ground the same time as the blue and gold confetti in SoFi Stadium last Sunday. O’Connell spent two seasons as the Rams’ OC. While Sean McVay calls the plays, O’Connell is obviously very involved in game planning, game day analysis and player development. Considering the Rams hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy this season, it makes sense that their coaching staff was once again raided.

With O’Connell, you can expect what you see in Green Bay with Matt LaFleur and in Cincinnati with Zac Taylor —  a version of the Rams’ offense that best fits Minnesota’s personnel. And while Kirk Cousins doesn’t have many people excited at his prospects next season, he is the original McVay quarterback and should be way ahead of the curve when O’Connell installs the offense.

O’Connell is the fourth former McVay assistant coach to land a head coaching job in the last four seasons. McVay has been a head coach for five.

4. MIKE MCDANIEL, MIAMI DOLPHINS

Previous Job: San Francisco 49ers Offensive Coordinator

I was not thrilled that the Dolphins fired Brian Flores to begin with, but with a young QB in Tua Tagovailoa at a crossroads, it may not have been the worst thing to happen. Especially if Flores and Tagovailoa had a falling out. When that happens, one of those guys always gets the boot. In this case, they stuck with the first round QB.

The beauty of the McDaniel hire is that, if he plugs in the Kyle Shanahan offense, it doesn’t require elite QB play to work. You can win games with pretty much anyone if you build the team the way the Niners have. The Dolphins already have a decent, near playoff, roster. Tagovailoa can just be OK and a winner with McDaniel’s offense. But if McDaniel can get the best out of the former Alabama quarterback, then this could be a QB career saving hire.

5. JOSH MCDANIELS, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Previous Job: New England Patriots Offensive Coordinator

McDaniels is our second former head coach to find his way back in charge. He doesn’t have nearly the resume that Pederson brings, going just 11-17 over a little over a year and a half with the Denver Broncos. McDaniels was fired just 11 games into the 2010 season. That 11-17 mark looks even worse when you realize the Broncos started 6-0 his first season. That’s just five wins over the next 22 games. Either way, he’s won a bunch of Super Bowls as the Pats’ OC and, after flirting with teams every season, even leaving the Indianapolis Colts at the alter in 2018, he’s finally got the big whistle.

If McDaniels did need any extra resume fodder, turning Mac Jones into a Pro Bowl quarterback as a rookie had to be more than enough.

McDaniels fits the Raiders’ needs and style. This team is already built to win and should have done better in 2021-22 if everything in and around the team didn’t explode two months into the season. He’ll need to add some receiving and defensive back help considering they lost two first rounders at those positions this last season for non football related reasons.

Regardless, he’s a significant upgrade over Jon Gruden and the fact that he’ll be working with a real general manager in Dave Ziegler, also from New England, instead of the hapless Mike Mayock, could mean good things for the Raiders.

6. NATHANIEL HACKETT, DENVER BRONOS

I have Hackett at sixth right now, mainly as a punishment for how poorly the Packers’ season ended. Green Bay opened their Divisional Round game against the 49ers with a touchdown drive. They scored three points the rest of the way. Also, he was the Jaguars’ offensive coordinator from 2016-2018 before LaFleur hired him.  But, to be fair, Blake Bortles best season in the NFL came with Hackett calling his plays.

What makes the hiring potentially brilliant is the availability of Aaron Rodgers this offseason. Rodgers is on the trading block, whether Green Bay wants to deal him or not, and the Broncos are the odds on favorite to land him. And that was before they hired his friend and play caller.

If Hackett is the reason Denver seals the deal with Rodgers, then he immediately moves to No. 2.

7. MATT EBERFLUS, CHICAGO BEARS

Previous Job: Indianapolis Colts Defensive Coordinator

Eberflus comes over from a Colts team that played some of the best defense in the NFL. The problem is, the Bears really need somebody to plug in a real professional football offense and develop quarterback Justin Fields. For that, Eberflus brought in former Packers quarterback coach Luke Getsy to run his offense and, if it works, expect Getsy to end up on a lot of prospective head coaching lists starting next year.

Eberflus has the talent on this team to pull a Nick Sirianni and accidentally land in the playoffs his first season. The defense is already there. If Getsy can help Fields develop, the NFC North could be there for the taking, especially if Rodgers does clear out of Green Bay.

8. LOVIE SMITH, HOUSTON TEXANS

Previous Job: Houston Texans Defensive Coordinator

Lovie Smith is not only the third former NFL head coach to land a new job this offseason, but is the second new head man that coached in a Super Bowl. Smith’s Chicago Bears lost to the Colts in Super Bowl XLI, 29-17.

Smith’s tenure in Chicago was pretty great. He finished 81-63, went 3-3 in the postseason, made it to a Super Bowl and two NFC Championship games. He was fired after going 10-6 in 2012. That’s a mark the Bears hit only once (going 12-4 in 2018) in the near decade since he was canned.

His second stint in the NFL, as head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, didn’t go that bad either. Smith went 8-24 in his two seasons with the Bucs, going 6-10 in his second season with a rookie Jameis Winston. Again, good stuff. Smith probably shouldn’t have been fired that time either.

If that was all Smith brought, other than his defensive coordinator experience (coaching in Super Bowl XXXVI as DC of the then St. Louis Rams), you’d be way more excited about this hire.

So why does this hire land so low on the list? Because those weren’t the only head coaching positions Lovie Smith has held. He was the head coach at the University of Illinois from 2016-2020, finished 17-39 and 10-33 in Big 10 conference play. So, yeah, the bloom is off Smith’s rose.

The Texans are a mess, but Smith already knew that, since he was their defensive coordinator under Culley. This is a job that no one really wanted, but maybe Smith can be the guy that patrolled the sidelines of Chicago and Tampa and forget the guy that coached Illinois.

9. DENNIS ALLEN, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Previous Job: New Orleans Saints Defensive Coordinator

Like David Culley last season, Allen is being set up specifically to fail. He’s a low risk, low pay hire for a team that’s $74 million over the cap right now and doesn’t have a quarterback that can play real NFL level football on the roster.

Allen was the Raiders head coach from 2012-2014 and, like many a Raiders head coach past and present, was fired before the season ended. In fact, it was still September. Allen finished 8-28 as a head coach. You can see why his phone wasn’t ringing.

But, like the Texans, this is a job no one wants. It’s going to a difficult rebuild and they’ll probably be forced to trade away some of their best players. Allen gets to take the hit for it and be blamed before the Saints target the next hot offensive mind.

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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