BUFFALO BILLS 2022 WIN PREDICTION

BY ADAM GREENE

It was such a heartbreaking end to their 2021 season that it spurred the NFL to change its overtime rules once again. Last year’s Buffalo Bills fell 42-35 in OT to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Divisional round in what is, unquestionably, one of the greatest playoff games in the history of the sport.

Before that, the Bills played what was possibly the most perfect offensive game of the season for any team in their 47-17 Wild Card round victory over the New England Patriots. Josh Allen finished 21 of 25 for 308 yards and five touchdowns and Buffalo scored every single time they touched the ball, with the exception of kneeldowns at the end of both halves.

The Bills went so hard over the last four games of the season and two playoff games that people are forgetting how all over the place the squad was during most of 2021. Buffalo was unquestionably one of the best teams in the league, but they had confounding losses against the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-6), Indianapolis Colts (41-15) and Patriots (14-10) that not only cost them home field in the playoffs, but could have sent them on the road in the Wild Card round had they not smacked down the Pats to wrap the regular season, 27-10.

BUFFALO BILLS

Last season: 11-5, AFC East Champion, lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round

Odds: Over 11.5 wins (-140), Under 11.5 wins (+110)

2022 NFL Draft: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida (Round 1), James Cook, RB, Georgia (Round 2), Terrel Bernard, LB, Baylor (Round 3), Khalil Shakir, WR, Boise State (Round 5), Matt Araiza, Punter, San Diego State (Round 6), Christian Benford, CB, Villanova (Round 6), Luke Tenuta, OT, Virginia Tech (Round 6), Baylon Spector, LB, Clemson (Round 7)

2022 Additions: Von Miller, Edge (free agent), DaQuan Jones, DT (free agent), Tim Settle, DT (free agent), Rodger Saffold, OG (free agent), Jordan Phillips, DE (free agent), OJ Howard, TE (free agent), Jameson Crowder, WR (free agent), David Quessenberry, OG (free agent), Greg Van Roten, OG (free agent), Duke Johnson, RB (free agent), Greg Mancz, Center (free agent), Marwuel Lee, ILB (free agent), Tavon Austin, WR (free agent)

Projected Starters

Offense

QB: Josh Allen

RB: Devin Singletary

WR: Stefon Diggs

WR: Gabriel Davis

WR: Jamison Crowder

TE: Dawson Knox

FB: Reggie Gilliam

LT: Dion Dawkins

LG: Rodger Saffold

C: Mitch Morse

RG: Ryan Bates

RT: Spencer Brown

Defense

LDE: Greg Rousseau

LDT: Ed Oliver

RDT: DaQuan Jones

RDE: Shaq Lawson

WLB: Matt Milano

MLB: Tremaine Edmunds

SLB: Von Miller

CB: Tre’Davious White

CB: Kaiir Elam

SS: Jordan Poyer

FS: Micah Hyde

Special Teams

PK: Tyler Bass

P: Matt Araiza

PR: Isaiah McKenzie

KR: Isaiah McKenzie

PREVIEW

In spite of coming out of last season as one of the 2022 Super Bowl favorites, the Bills did not sit on their hands. They attacked free agency like a team that knows that their championship window is wide open and the only thing keeping them from cruising through it is money. So they opened up the check book and spent it.

With a defense that was already pretty good, they added DaQuon Jones to the middle of their line and stole away Von Miller, the edge rusher that helped bring a Vince Lombardi Trophy to the Rams a year ago. Miller might not be what he was in his prime, but if Buffalo gets the guy LA had over the last month of their regular season and all through the playoffs, he’ll be worth every penny of the six-year, $120 million contract they it took to nab him.

On offense, the team upgraded at wide receiver by bringing in Jameson Crowder, formerly of the Washington Commanders. More importantly, they jettisoned known plague rat Cole Beasley, who will no longer be allowed in the facility to infect everyone else with whatever advanced strain of COVID-19 he’s brewing up inside his hobo beard.

The acquisition of Rodger Saffold has flown under the radar, but it’s no surprise to people that watch the game that the Los Angeles Rams and Tennessee Titans fielded elite running attacks when he was on their teams. He’ll be a gamechanger at left guard. Adding OJ Howard as another passing option and run blocker should create plenty of new wrinkles, especially in the end zone.

The Bills are in the very beginnings of an AFC East run similar to the one the Patriots enjoyed pretty much all throughout Tom Brady’s tenure there. I think the Miami Dolphins will be better than they were a season ago, and that’s a team that finished with consecutive winning records, but they are still significantly behind Buffalo. And, from where I sit, they are easily the second best team in the division.

That means you can probably count on the Bills going 5-1 in the East probably the next half decade at least. Outside of that, they can easily take a loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1 and it mean nothing to them. It’s a road game against an NFC team that will finish with a winning record, so it will do nothing to affect their playoff seeding.

The toughest test early on after the Rams are the Baltimore Ravens in Baltimore two weeks before the epic rematch against the Chiefs. They get the Green Bay Packers after their bye. Once that’s off the table, they have what looks to me one of the easier second half schedules in the league for a contender. Tough games against the Minnesota Vikings, the presumably Deshaun Watson-led Cleveland Browns, another crack at the Dolphins at home and a possible AFC Championship preview match up at the Cincinnati Bengals on Jan. 3 are serious road blocks. But in between those games, they have the New York Jets twice, the Detroit Lions, the Chicago Bears and the Patriots twice.

The Bills are loaded. They have a veritable yellow brick road of a schedule to get to the playoffs and could easily end up with home field advantage after knocking off the Pats for a second time on Jan. 8.

This was a good team all last season, but a great team once Santa was on his way. They need to find a way to lasso that holiday juggernaut in September, instead of waiting for the snow to fall.

Final record prediction: 13-4

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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