NFL PRESEASON WEEK 1: THURSDAY & FRIDAY PREVIEWS & PICKS

BY ADAM GREENE

It’s the first official week of preseason and the question always becomes, when laying down a wager, how serious will these teams take the games?

Back when there were four preseason games, the first contest usually got a series or two from the starters, with the second maybe three to four. The third got a full half and the fourth got next to none. With the reduction of the preseason to three match ups, all bets are off.

We had a taste last year for the first time, but there’s no telling if what we saw there was a trend or just part of the experiment of moving the preseason to three games and the regular season to 17.

So we’re on our own, figuring this out. It’s guesswork, but I do that for a living so let’s see how it goes. We’ve got odds and we’ve got totals, so here are your picks for Thursday and Friday’s NFL Preseason games.

THURSDAY

NEW YORK GIANTS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-1.5, O/U: 33.5)

Alright, here’s our first test. Brian Daboll has to not only implement a new offense, but also figure out what he has. Not only in Daniel Jones, but with pretty much every player on the roster. The Pats have been in complete disarray this entire offseason with head coach Bill Belichick basically putting the two stooges (Matt Patricia and Joe Judge) in charge of his offense without naming one the offensive coordinator. The fact that Belichick’s sons are coaching on the defense makes me feel no better. I feel like we’re still in store for a lot of Tyrod Taylor vs Brian Hoyer in this one and, if that’s the case, I’ll take Taylor 10 times out of 10. Giants 20, Patriots 13

TENNESSEE TITANS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5, O/U: 31)

Here’s a little fun fact for you. The Ravens have not lost a preseason game since 2015. They are 20-0 in the exhibition season going back to 2016, which is an NFL record. Tennessee has a vet heavy roster and I can’t imagine they’ll let Ryan Tannehill go long and it would be even more ridiculous to play Derrick Henry or Robert Woods at all. That means Logan Woodside for probably two quarters and a Malik Willis third and fourth, which should be fun to watch. Baltimore’s depth is so much better, with Tyler Huntley proving last season he might just be the best back up QB in the league. Lamar Jackson probably won’t play a snap, so it’ll be Huntley for at least a half and then Brett Hundley for most of the second. He’s not too shabby either. Ravens 23, Titans 10

FRIDAY

ATLANTA FALCONS AT DETROIT LIONS (pk, O/U: 35.5)

How much will Jared Goff play in this game? Dan Campbell a hard nut to crack. He definitely has that psycho work mentality that’s so old school it can ruin a modern team and get all your players hurt in meaningless games. Tim Boyle is not the worst back up and he’ll go most of the way. David Blough will likely mop up. Desmond Ridder is your Falcons wild card here. Marcus Mariota probably won’t play more than a series or two so Ridder will get the lion’s share of reps before tossing the ball to Feleipe Franks. I don’t think these teams are that far apart talent wise and, honestly, the Lions overall might have the edge. I also think it matters a lot more the Campbell to get this preseason dub. Lions 17, Falcons 14

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-1.5, O/U: 33)

Again, this is a wild one because Deshaun Watson is getting suspended. Whether it’s six games, 12 games or the season, he’ll be sitting a lot in 2022 so there’s every reason to let him tote the load a while in this one. Behind Watson, the Browns are in great shape with their back ups. Jacoby Brissett, Joshua Dobbs and Josh Rosen are all proven NFL commodities. Jacksonville showed next to nothing in the preseason opener. Lawrence will likely get some action here, but I’m confident that the results will be similar to last week. Browns 27, Jaguars 16

NEW YORK JETS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+1, O/U: 36)

The Jets have one of the weakest and worst rosters in football. Their back up quarterback, Joe Flacco, is apparently beating out their starter Zach Wilson. I have no idea what to expect with them, but I do know what to expect with the Eagles and that better be that they will play it safe. They are a playoff team as they sit before this game, but Philadelphia cannot afford to lose anybody to injury. That means a light touch with starters if not holding them out completely. We’re going to get a classic Joe Flacco vs Gardner Minshew QB duel and, frankly, I’m not going against the G man when he’s got the rock. Eagles 26, Jets 20

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (-1, O/U: 34)

If there’s ever a team that would want to sim through the preseason, it’s the Bengals. A healthy team got hot at the right time and got all the way to the Super Bowl. Before that, with Joe Burrow injured, they had a Top Five draft pick. This is still a loaded squad, but they don’t care about this game at all. As for the Cardinals, they’ve had plenty of drama this offseason  and can boast one of the better back up QB situations in the league with Colt McCoy. That should be enough. Cardinals 21, Bengals 10

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-1.5, O/U: 32.5)

Here’s who you won’t see in this game — Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s still not been unleashed to throw after his surgery and, even more importantly, the team doesn’t want to get him hurt while they’re actively trying to trade him. So we’re getting a solid little dose of Trey Lance and maybe for a whole half considering they’re trying to work him into the offense and that’s not been going great in practice. The Packers will not take this game serious in the least and I doubt Aaron Rodgers even takes a snap. Jordan Love will go nearly the whole way with Danny Etling, who I did not know existed until just now, mopping up in the fourth quarter. The Niners, and Lance, are way more invested in the outcome here and it should show up on the scoreboard. 49ers 24, Packers 17

Last week:

Straight up: 1-0

Against the spread: 1-0

Preseason:

Straight up: 1-0

Against the spread: 1-0

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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