TOP NFL COACH OF THE YEAR CANDIDATES

BY ADAM GREENE

Every season the Associated Press recognizes a deserving NFL head coach as its Coach of the Year. Last year, New York Giants first-year head man Brian Daboll took home the hardware after leading his team to a 9-7-1 record and a Wild Card playoff berth.

He wasn’t done, as the Giants won their Wild Card playoff game over the Minnesota Vikings.

Below are the current five odds-on favorites to claim the award and what would have to happen for them to add it to their trophy case.

1. ARTHUR SMITH, ATLANTA FALCONS

Coach of the Year Odds: +800

Smith leads the list thanks, in large part, to finishing 7-10 with the Atlanta Falcons a season ago and drafting Bijan Robinson in the first round of April’s NFL Draft. Robinson is the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+275) and the NFC South is there for the taking. All Smith will need to be in contention for this award is for second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder to play at an average NFL level and lead the team to at least nine wins and a playoff appearance.

2. SEAN PAYTON, DENVER BRONCOS

Coach of the Year Odds: +900

The NFL loves to give this award to a new coach who drags a team no one expected to the playoffs. Unfortunately, all the rookie head coaches have too hard a job ahead of them to do that. That means that Payton, a veteran and certainly a candidate someday for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, is the closest we’ll get to filling that need for the voters. What will it take for Payton to win it? Probably an AFC West title. I’m not sure just making the playoffs will get it done.

3. MATT LAFLEUR, GREEN BAY PACKERS

Coach of the Year Odds: +1100

Why is Lafleur, the guy with literally the fifth best winning percentage (.712) in NFL history, a candidate for Coach of the Year? Because, for the first time since he was hired by the Packers in 2019, he’ll be taking the field without Aaron Rodgers. If he can get this team, with Jordan Love, to double-digit wins, he will absolutely be in contention for this award, if not win it outright.

4. MATT EBERFLUS, CHICAGO BEARS

Coach of the Year Odds: +1400

Matt Eberflus’ appearance atop the list makes a lot more sense. He’s coming into his second season and even though the Bears had the worst record in the league in 2022-23, the improvement in the team, and quarterback Justin Fields, was obvious to everyone. There’s plenty of excitement around Chicago and the NFC North is very top heavy, with the Minnesota Vikings coming off a 13-4 season and the Detroit Lions a 9-8 campaign. If the Bears win nine games and make the playoffs, Eberflus will be picking this trophy up.

5. MIKE MCDANIEL, MIAMI DOLPHINS

Coach of the Year Odds: +1400

Shockingly, Mike McDaniel wasn’t even in the running for the Coach of the Year Award last season, even though he did exactly the same thing Brian Daboll did with the Giants — take a team to the playoffs that hadn’t been in a while with a 9-win record. Expectations are a little higher in Miami this season and if McDaniel can keep the Dolphins in second place, win 10-11 games and knock the New York Jets out of the race, this award could adorn his shelf.

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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