FRIDAY AFTERNOON QUARTERBACK: NFL WEEK 13

BY ADAM GREENE

Well, what do you know? We got a quality contest on Thursday Night Football from the opening whistle, not just in the final 15 minutes. The Dallas Cowboys held on to a hard fought 41-35 win over the Seattle Seahawks.

If you read my TNF preview, and you should have, or glanced through the Power Rankings, then you know that this result should not be terribly satisfying for the Cowboys. Yes, it’s the NFL and there are no style points or polls with which to contend. All that matters, in the end, is the win.

But, I say, playing close to the Seahawks shows plenty of cracks in Dallas’ armor. They were 9.5 point favorites for a reason. Seattle is a team that could be looking at a solid losing streak, and will certainly be underdogs next week to the San Francisco 49ers and then the following week against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Does anyone seriously think they can win either of those games? And, if you do, let me just thank you for checking out the article, Geno Smith’s mom.

Smith did have a great game in the loss, finishing 23 of 41 passing for 334 yards, three touchdowns and a pick. He scrambled twice for six yards and a score and if you have Smith as your starting quarterback in fantasy this week, well, I just hope you’ll share your time machine technology with the rest of us because there’s no other explanation as to why you would have played Smith on purpose.

DK Metcalf was uncoverable, making his own personal highlight reel against DaRon Bland, who did make up for getting consistently burned extra crispy in the first half by picking off a pass in the second. Metcalf caught six passes for 134 yards and all three of Smtih’s TD passes.

Dak Prescott too was sharp, finishing 29 of 41 passing for 299 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. CeeDee Lamb was just as hot as Metcalf, hauling in 12 passes for 115 yards and a score.

We have a plethora of byes this week, with six teams taking a knee on Sunday, but still plenty of games to pick, some with real playoff implications.

Byes: Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+6, O/U: 40.5)

We’re in risky territory here, because while we all want the Patriots to lose and look like dog refuse every week, we don’t want them to lose so much that they have a shot at Caleb Williams in this draft. They’ll definitely get a chance to draft one of the top quarterbacks, but no one in human civilization wants to see Williams land in New England. As for the Chargers, Brandon Staley’s job is on the line every single week here on out. And while Bill Belichick’s time with the Pats could be coming to a merciful conclusion, there’s no reason to think he won’t take a couple of coaches with him on the way out the door. Luckily for Staley, New England’s QB room is a garbage fire of dirty baby diapers. Chargers 23, Patriots 16

DETROIT LIONS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+4, O/U: 46)

For the second straight week a potential playoff team shows up on the Lions’ schedule, but the Saints are a much different beast than the Green Bay Packers. New Orleans is only alive in the playoff race because of math, which should never be trusted, and the fact they play in the NFC South, a division that sent a playoff team with an 8-9 record to the postseason a year ago. Detroit should be able to handle its business, but the bloom is definitely off the rose in Motor City. Lions 31, Saints 23

ATLANTA FALCONS AT NEW YORK JETS (+2.5, O/U: 34)

I’m not convinced that Robert Saleh’s seat is even lukewarm, considering Aaron Rodgers is definitely returning last season, but the fact that the books and media seem to continually ignore the raging fire under Arthur Smith’s Barcalounger is a real mystery to me. The only thing working in Smith’s favor? One team with a winning record, the Indianapolis Colts, remains on their schedule. As for New York, they unleashed what has to be the worst, most inglorious play of the season on Black Friday when Tim Boyle hurled a Hail Mary pass toward the end zone only to see it picked off by Miami Dolphins defensive back Javon Holland at the one yard-line. Holland then weaved his way through the remnants of the Jets offense to return the ball 99 yards for the score, something I have never seen before in my life. In fact, I can’t find any information showing that it’s ever happened in NFL history. That should be a final season killer right there for any team’s psyche. Even one that’s about to play a mediocre Falcons team. Falcons 17, Jets 13

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-5, O/U: 40)

In spite of just scoring 16 points in a win last week, the Steelers eclipsed 400 yards for the first time in 59 games. All it took was firing the worst offensive coordinator in history, one Matthew Canada. As for the Cardinals, they did what they usually do when facing the Los Angeles Rams, get blown off the field. It was just a regular Sunday afternoon for them. Pittsburgh, for whatever reason, is continually saddled with rumors they might “acquire” Kyler Murray in the offseason if Arizona decides to trade the former first overall pick. This weekend they’ll see live and in person every reason they shouldn’t do that. Steelers 26, Cardinals 16

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (+2, O/U: 43)

Gardner Minshew has spent most of this season showing the true value a high-level backup quarterback can give your team. For instance, if you play one of the easiest schedules in the league, you can sniff at a playoff chance before faceplanting down the stretch. As for Tennessee? I’m pretty sure they’re just ready to sim to the end of the season. But I’m still picking them Sunday. Titans 24, Colts 20 

MIAMI DOLPHINS AT WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (+9.5, O/U: 50)

The Dolphins have been unable to beat any of the good teams they’ve faced, but absolutely crushed the bad ones. Washington is a very bad team. Miami could score 70 again here if they want to. Dolphins 38, Commanders 13

DENVER BRONCOS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-3.5, O/U: 46)

After opening the year 0-4 and looking like Sean Payton had been permanently replaced by Kevin James pulling off one of the greatest comedic performances of our time, the Broncos have gone 6-1 since and are now firmly in the playoff race. That’s a shock now, but if you saw these two teams’ records back in August, the fact that Houston is also sitting there at 6-5 would definitely be the bigger surprise. As crazy as it sounds, this game has serious playoff implications and I think Denver gets the job done. Broncos 24, Texans 20

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-5, O/U: 37)

Every time the Buccaneers try to remove themselves from the playoff conversation, Carolina shows up on the schedule to put them right back in it. Usually, when a bad head coach is fired, the team finds the will to win the following week. I’m not feeling that mojo with the Panthers. Buccaneers 27, Panthers 13

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+3, O/U: 46.5)

Alright, it’s the game of the week and a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship. I don’t know if you’ve heard the great wailing and whining coming from the Bay Area, but apparently the Niners have had this game circled on their schedule. You see, the team that had maybe a 25 percent chance of going into Philadelphia and winning with a healthy roster last January feels that the injury to Brock Purdy early on “cost them the game” against a team that was pretty much better than them across the board. Weird. Meanwhile, the Eagles are dogs in their own stadium in spite of beating both the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead and the Buffalo Bills last week. I guess you could say I like the “upset,” here. Let the tears from this loss push you all the way to the postseason where you will lose to Philly again, Niners. Eagles 31, 49ers 24

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-4.5, O/U: 39.5)

The closer we get to gametime, the more likely it seems that Joe Flacco will be under center for the Browns against the suddenly streaking Rams. And, even if he’s not, a rookie quarterback like Dorian Thompson-Robinson should expect to get introduced to Aaron Donald multiple times. Los Angeles is still banged up themselves, with Stafford bandaged all over and Cooper Kupp hobbled with a hamstring and an ankle, but they have an inside track to the playoffs now. To keep it, they have to take down Cleveland. Rams 24, Browns 13

Last week

Straight up: 11-5

Against the spread: 11-5

Season

Straight up: 96-56

Against the spread: 86-66

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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