Jaguars Face Titans In Matchup Of AFC South Also Rans

Thursday NFL football action features a matchup between a pair of AFC South teams that are suffering through disappointing seasons. One year after Jacksonville and Tennessee finished first and second in their division they’re limping toward the finish line with the playoffs a very unlikely goal for both sides. The Jacksonville Jaguars were one of the surprise teams of the 2017 season finishing 10-6 and winning the AFC South title. As a team that finished 3-13 in 2016 this turnaround was shocking but even more shocking was their playoff run—the Jaguars made it all the way to the AFC Championship game and were just a couple of plays away from a trip to the Super Bowl. Instead, the New England overcame a 10 point fourth quarter deficit to win the game and the Conference Championship.

The Jaguars’ defense was the star last season and in the AFC Championship game held the Patriots to 10 first half points and 0 third quarter points before they collapsed in the final fifteen minutes. They’ve been solid this season as well and are currently ranked #3 in the NFL in yards per game against (281.7), #3 in passing yards per game against (207.2) and #5 in scoring defense (20.3 PPG). A team with a strong defense and a 4-8 record has only one place to point the finger—the Jaguars’ pitiful offense. Jacksonville ranks #24 in total offense (332.5 YPG), #24 in passing yards per game (223.9) and #18 in rushing yards per game (111.3). These yardage numbers aren’t great but the Jags’ biggest issue is scoring, or more appropriately their inability to do so—Jacksonville is ranked #30 in points per game at 16.9.

Tennessee’s offense hasn’t been any better this season. The Titans are #28 in total offense (310.2 YPG), #29 in passing yards per game (197.5) and #17 in rushing yardage (111.3). Tennessee has also struggled to put points on the board averaging just 18.4 PPG which ranks #28 in the NFL. Like the Jaguars, the Titans’ defense has played well this year ranking #6 in scoring defense (20.4 PPG), #9 in total defense (340.9 yards allowed per game) and #5 in passing defense (221.2 yards per game).

Although this game statistically looks like a toss up there are several matchup and situational elements favoring the Titans. Tennessee has a nasty defensive line and a significant matchup advantage over a banged up Jacksonville offensive front. The Jaguars will be without Andrew Norwell, Brandon Linder and Cam Robinson making the job of protecting inexperienced quarterback Cody Kessler all the more difficult. Kessler’s role is that of a ‘game manager’ and he isn’t expected to do much but the problem is that Jacksonville just doesn’t have any other offensive weapons to take the pressure off of him. Kessler is now 1-8 SU as a NFL starting QB but the issues with protection have already manifest themselves—in two games this season Kessler has been sacked 7 times.

Tennessee’s offense has struggled this season but in general terms they’re in much better shape with a legitimate starting NFL quarterback in Marcus Mariota. Mariota is 5-2 lifetime against Jacksonville with the Titans winning the last three in the series. More significantly, they’ve been a nasty opponent at Nashville’s Nissan Stadium with a 10-3 SU record over the past two seasons and a record of 15-6 SU/12-8-1 ATS over the past three years. Jacksonville enters with a road record of 7-16 SU over the past three seasons but a 12-10 record against the number.

The Jaguars’ defense showed their character last week as they did it all in a 6-0 win over Indianapolis. The problem is that it’s not possible to expect that kind of effort from the stop unit in back to back weeks and particularly on the road where Jacksonville is 1-4 SU/1-3-1 ATS this season. The Jaguars aren’t returning to the playoffs and it’s going to be tough for Tennessee but the Titans do have one thing working for them—they played a road heavy schedule in the early going and will play four of their five final games at home.

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