NFL Games to Avoid in Week 12

Perhaps this should be a fade column. Over the last few weeks, all the games we’ve told you to stay away from have cashed as popular teams continue to cover with ease. New England and Baltimore have been two of the most public teams in the league this year, and those two teams keep cashing for bettors. New Orleans and Seattle have been impressive too, and both Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams seem to be back on track after some shaky performances in the middle of the season. It’s only a matter of time before some of these teams fall back down to Earth, so keep that in mind.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6.5 AT CINCINNATI BENGALS

Lots of bettors are going to be breaking one of the major rules when it comes to teasing the NFL in this game. You should never tease a road team that’s less than a touchdown favorite per the football betting odds.

Cincinnati is the only winless team left in the NFL. The Bengals have been toothless throughout the year, and their decision to bench Andy Dalton in favor of Ryan Finley means that the rebuild is in full effect. They lost to the Steelers 27-3 in the Steel City earlier this season, yet Cincinnati has been more competitive than you might believe.

Half of the Bengals’ losses have been by seven points or less, and they stayed within a touchdown of potential playoff teams in Seattle, Buffalo, Baltimore, and Oakland. Pittsburgh is dealing with significant injuries to its skill position players, so this Steelers’ offense is not nearly as formidable. Top receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is doubtful with a knee injury and a concussion, and top running back James Conner is considered questionable with a shoulder injury. No. 2 receiver Diontae Johnson is dealing with a concussion as well, so the Steelers might not score many points with Mason Rudolph struggling. Rudolph is 31st in the NFL in QBR, so this could turn into a low-scoring coinflip type of game.

OAKLAND RAIDERS -3 AT NEW YORK JETS

The Raiders are in the thick of the playoff hunt at 6-4. Oakland fought off Cincinnati last week, and some are jumping on Oakland as a short road favorite against the New York Jets in Week 12. The Raiders would have been favored by four or five points here a few weeks ago, but the Jets have won two in a row to show some signs of life after a moribund start.

Gang Green dealt with some injuries to key players earlier this season, but the Jets are healthy once again and dangerous. Sam Darnold continues to show flashes of why he was selected No. 3 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, and he had the best game of his young career last week against Washington. Darnold threw for 293 yards and four touchdowns in a 34-17 rout, while the defense looked excellent in holding the Redskins to just 225 total yards of offense.

It’s never easy for West Coast teams to head to the East Coast for a 1 p.m. kickoff, and Oakland could be in some trouble here. The Raiders are 1-3 on the road this season.

BUFFALO BILLS -4 VS. DENVER BRONCOS

Buffalo is 7-3, but the Bills have played one of the softest schedules in the NFL. Their best win this season was over 5-5 Tennessee, and this team’s next best victory was against the 3-7 Jets. That’s why they are only -4 on the football betting line against Denver this week.

Sean McDermott has done an excellent job turning Josh Allen into a serviceable quarterback, but his faults have been on display against decent opponents. He is an excellent runner and fearless with the ball in his hands, but he struggles with accuracy and makes too many mistakes when it comes to reading defenses.

Denver has one of the most talented defenses in the NFL. The Broncos haven’t always shown it this season, but they should be able to slow down a Bills offense that has run into some trouble running the ball in recent weeks too with Frank Gore averaging just 3.9 YPC.

Denver beat Cleveland before its bye week and should have knocked off Minnesota on the road last week. The Broncos have played a significantly tougher schedule than Buffalo, and that’s why this line is only four points.

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